A version of this column originally appeared several years ago in Casino Player magazine. Since the title refers to a quote by Yogi Berra who passed away in late September of this year, I thought I’d resurrect the column as a tribute to him. Rest in peace, Yogi.
The great American philosopher Lawrence Peter Berra — better known as Yogi — used the phrase “we made too many wrong mistakes” to describe a particularly hapless game his New York Mets had just played. I love the phrase and I don’t have any idea of the difference between a “right mistake” and a “wrong mistake,” but I decided to “borrow” it for this column. When I wrote it I had no idea the Mets would have just lost in the World Series for making too many mistakes.
Today I want to talk about the different kinds of mistakes we make when we play video poker hands. Mistakes cost us money. Mistakes cut short our playing time. Sometimes mistakes cause us to become angry at ourselves.
Categorizing mistakes isn’t an exact science. Sometimes a misplay may fall into more than one category. Sometimes the kind of mistake it is depends on how good a player you are. Sometimes what appears to be an error isn’t an error at all.
Even so, identifying types of errors is the first step to correcting them — and correcting your errors is an excellent way to improve your results. I’m limiting today’s discussion to the errors in the play of the hands. There are many other types of errors (such as poor game selection, not using your slot club card, playing while not at your best, talking with others while you play, etc.), but those will be topics for another day.
Also note that my definition of a “mistake” is that the expected value (EV) of your play is lower than the EV of the “best” play. What the draw turns out to be is irrelevant. To help picture this, imagine that there is a Ten Thousand Play machine where the machine plays the same hand 10,000 times. The best play is the one which will give you the best result after playing it 10,000 times. The result of the hand at the bottom (which will be the only result if you’re playing single-line video poker) is just a small piece of the result.
A. Bad Prediction — You are playing a Deuces Wild variation where full houses return 3 for 1. You are dealt 4♥ 4♠ 5♦ 5♣ K♥. You know that in this game you’re supposed to hold only one pair in this situation, so you hold the fours and hit the draw button. Out pops the other two fives and a deuce. You get credit for a full house which returns a lot less than the five-of-a-kind you would have received had you held the fives instead.
By the definition we’re using here, this is not a mistake at all. As we said earlier, the EV of holding the fours and the EV of holding the fives is identical. Since a mistake is only when the EV of your play is lower, this is not a mistake. You’ll be dealt two-pair hands in Deuces Wild variations every 27.34 hands on average. There will be days you mainly pick right on these “coin flip” hands. There will be days you mainly pick wrong. But over the course of time, it’ll average out.
B. Using the Wrong Strategy for the Pay Schedule — You are playing a Deuces Wild variation where full houses return 4 for 1. You’re dealt the same hand as last time, 4455K, and you hold the fours again.
This is a big mistake. With this pay schedule you should hold both pairs. There are Deuces Wild players who are oblivious to pay schedules and will hold only one pair (or two pairs) for EVERY pay schedule.
C. Treating All 3-card Straight Flushes Alike — In games where you get your money back for a pair of jacks or better, there are eight different categories of 3-card straight flushes: 2 high cards 2 insides; 2 high cards 1 inside; 1 high card 2 insides; 1 high card 1 inside; 1 high card 0 insides; 0 high cards 2 insides; 0 high cards 1 inside; 0 high cards 0 insides. Each of these has a special value.
In Kings or Better Joker Wild there are four categories of 3-card straight flushes: 1 high 2 insides; 0 high 2 insides; 0 high 1 inside; 0 high 0 insides.
In Deuces Wild there are five categories of 3-card straight flushes without there being a deuce in the hand: 2 inside; 1 inside; 0 inside; ace-low; and ‘345’ which doesn’t fit exactly into any of the above.
In every game, some of these are grouped together strategically — that is, two or more of these groups are both better than, say, certain two card royal flushes and worse than other two card royal flushes. Each pay schedule of each game groups these 3-card straight flushes slightly differently. It’s a mistake not to know where each 3-card straight flush ranks strategically in every game you play.
D. Misidentifying Straight Flush Draws — In Jacks or Better, do you play A♥ K♥ 3♠ 4♠ 5♠ the same as A♥ K♥ 2♠ 3♠ 4♠? You shouldn’t. In Deuces Wild, do you consider 4♣ 5♣ 6♣ to be equal in value to 5♣ 6♣ 7♣? Again, you shouldn’t. Or also in Deuces Wild, do you consider A♦ 3♦ 5♦ to be worth the same as 3♦ 6♦ 7♦? One more time, you shouldn’t.
It’s one thing to know where a 3-card straight flush with 0 high cards and 0 insides appears on the strategy. It’s another thing to know what combinations of cards belong to this category. In our first example in this section, ‘345’ does belong but ‘234’ doesn’t.
E. Errors of Aggression — Assume you’re playing 10/7 or 9/7 Double Bonus and you’re dealt A♠ K♠ Q♠ 5♠ 3♦. Furthermore, assume you KNOW the correct play is ‘AKQ5’. Even so, you choose to hold ‘AKQ’ because you REALLY want a royal flush. If you know the strategy and choose to play otherwise, then this is an error of aggression. If you don’t know that you should hold all four spades, then that is a mistake of using the wrong strategy for the pay schedule.
F. Errors of Passivity — Assume you’re playing any Deuces Wild game and you’re dealt a straight flush with three deuces, such as W W W 4♦ 6♦. If you know that the proper play is to just hold the deuces, but you’re running low on credits and you hold all five cards to give yourself some more “ammunition,” then this is an error of passivity. If you don’t know that you should just hold the deuces, then this is a mistake of using the wrong strategy for the pay schedule.
G. Suited Versus Unsuited High Cards — A “high card” is one where you get your money back should you end up with a pair of them. In many games, this is jacks, queens, kings, and aces. (Deuces Wild games have no high cards at all.)
Suited high cards (e.g. all are diamonds) are worth a lot more than unsuited high cards. Both combinations have equal chances at high pairs, two pair, straights, etc., but suited high cards also have the potential to become royal flushes, straight flushes, and regular flushes. For this reason, you’ll see a combination such as ‘QJ’ much higher in the strategy than QJ.
H. Inside Straights — Many players consistently under-hold inside straights. The reason appears to be that if you go for them, the best you can get is a relatively low-valued straight. These players prefer to take their chances with either drawing five new cards or just keeping the high cards. This is a big mistake.
Most games have some inside straights that are eligible to be held. Exactly which ones depends on which game, which pay schedule, how many high cards are present, and whether or not these high cards are suited with each other.
I. Overvaluing Aces — In many games with the word “bonus” in it, players receive a lot of credits for ending up with four aces — and sometimes more if there is also a kicker. In Double Double Bonus for example, players often hold the ace by itself from A♥ Q♠ J♦ 7♥ 4♠ rather than the correct QJ. Or from 5♥ 5♠ A♣ 9♦ 8♠, the correct play in every game is 55, but a large number of players either just hold the ace or sometimes even 55A. Big mistake.
J. Undervaluing Full Houses — In games where two pair gives you your money back, from K♥ K♠ 8♦ 8♣ 3♦ the correct play is almost always KK88, by a big margin, but a number of players regularly just hold the kings. Just holding the kings gives you a small chance (1-in-360 approximately) of ending up with four kings, but it is nine times harder to get a full house from KK than it is from KK88.
K. Not Properly Considering Penalty Cards — This is an “optional” error. I personally count these as errors for me but if you’re someone who intentionally avoids considering penalty cards, I don’t insist that you call it an error. It is up to you whether you are going to use a strategy with penalty cards, but if you do you must use the strategy correctly. As an example, in 9/6 Jacks or Better, when you play using penalty cards, it is correct to hold four hearts from A♥ K♥ T♥ 8♥ Q♣ and A♥ K♥ T♥ 8♥ T♠, but it is incorrect to hold four hearts from A♥ K♥ T♥ 8♥ 9♣, A♥ K♥ J♥ 8♥ Q♠, and K♥ Q♥ T♥ 8♥ T♣. Incorrectly using the advanced rules is worse than deciding to just stick with the basic rules.
While this list isn’t exhaustive, and many players have their own “special” mistakes that they consistently make, this list categorizes many of the most common ones. Most less-than-expert players will see their footprints in one or more places in this list.
Once you identify the places where you are making mistakes, a little bit of effort with a strategy and computer program will go a long way toward eliminating these mistakes.
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