Hiding in Plain Sight

Like any diligent student of Advantage Gaming I study a variety of games from many different sources. My classroom is the Gaming Research Center  located on the third floor of the UNLV Lied library, where over the last 15 years I easily have spent several thousands of hours in study. There resides the most complete collection of Gaming Texts in the entire world. And the only place an interested student can publicly view the unicorn of gaming text, James Grosjean’s Beyond Counting exhibit CAA.

While brushing up on some of the more complex ideas from that hallowed book, I came across a chapter that is often overlooked by many beginning players titled “Naked is the Best Disguise.” Here Grosjean gives some helpful hints on how players can extend their playing careers. Anything Grosjean writes is worth your time. His strategy cards can improve any player’s game regardless whether they are a novice or a professional. I have no intention on rehashing his advice that extends about seven and half pages, but I would like to give some of my general thoughts on the subject.

One defining aspect of the chapter that I must mention, out of necessity, is that: “Any professional player will tell you that counting the cards is the easy part, the hard part is not getting thrown out for winning.” Finding and playing a profitable game is easily done when enough time and practice are allocated. But attaining that delicate balance between being a winning player and making it look like you are a losing player is more an art than a learned skill.

The central theme that guides my behavior while playing is simple, it consists of trying to look like a typical player. This means you have to look like a losing player. The best way to do that is to actually be a losing player, but that’s pretty much the opposite of what we’re going for. The second best way is to discretely put chips in your pocket, more commonly known as “rat-holing.” Depending on the amounts the player buys in for this is relatively easy to do. If a player buys in for $700; $500 in green chips and $200 in black, the player can siphon two or three green chips off the stack of greens. This instantly defines you as a losing player.

As you continue to play one of two things will occur. First, you experience a positive variance, and your chip stack grows.   In this case it is best to continue to “rat-hole” chips so that your chip stack remains relatively constant. If possible try to cash out after a dealer rotation. The new dealer will be unaware of your buy in or play history, e.g. no idea if you were winning or losing, prior to their arrival. And the pit bosses are far too busy pretending to work to notice you.

Secondly, you will experience a negative variance. Unfortunately this will sometimes occur.  In this case you can either do nothing, or rat-hole chips in a similar way as you did when you were winning. Whatever method you choose, in this case you will appear to be a losing player and, over time, the combination of the losses and reduced wins will make you look like a losing player in the computer. And because whatever the computer says is pretty much gospel to the pit drones, you are in good shape.

Another approach is to engage in strategy deviation. The first step toward advantage play is mastering the basic strategy for that game. After that step is executed perfectly and consistently, the player can move toward identifying situations where it is mathematically beneficial to deviate from the basic strategy.

Card counting in the game of blackjack is the most well-known variation of advantage play. The basic strategy plays for blackjack are approximately 200 in number. This may sound like a lot but many of the plays are intuitive and this can be done rather quickly. The Illustrious 18 are the 18 deviations from the blackjack basic strategy that are responsible for approximately 80% of the value gained from all basic strategy deviations in blackjack.

In addition to increasing your percent advantage over the house, the deviations from basic strategy offer some “cover” for the advantage player. Cover in the advantage gaming realm refers to doing things that are contrary to perfect play. What this means is that the dealer, pit bosses, and the eye in the sky will perceive this style as one that will lead to more losses than that of a typical player, and more important, contrary to that of a professional advantage player.

One of most effective cover tasks that a male player can engage in is to have a women sitting next to him while playing. Casino personal think that card counters are lonely young and middle aged men who do not have much luck with women. This is because, for the most part, it’s true. I like to think and hope that I’m the exception to the generalization.

I’ve gone over a few of the more common methods to hide in plain sight while playing at casinos and engaging in advantage play. Depending on the type of play you’re attempting and the type of action you’re placing; your approach will be more or less complicated. A player spreading $5-$40 on an 8-deck blackjack game in Atlantic city will not get any heat compared to the stellar advantage blackjack play of Ben Affleck, who in his infinite wisdom spread one hand of $100 dollars to three hands of $20,000 dollars at the Hard Rock Casino in Las Vegas a few years ago and was evicted from the premises and barred for life from that property. As long as players aren’t too aggressive in their play and implement some minimal cover techniques to mask their winnings, casual practitioners should be able to prolong their playing careers for quite a while.