So it finally happened. After 50 Super Bowls with no overtime a small percentage of bettors watched helplessly as the Patriots converted their second 2pt conversion to knot the game at 28-28 with less than a minute to play. Atlanta had blown off all three of their timeouts earlier in the half so they had just a few plays to somehow get the ball in FG range and save the “NO OT” bettors who laid -1000 or more that the game would end in regulation time.
They call the No OT bet, the No Safety bet and others like it where you lay out a lot to win a little “bridgejumpers” because after losing one of them you might be tempted to jump off a bridge. In Vegas the popular spots seem to be parking garages but the mentality is the same. Incurring a loss that you just can’t live with.
Laying 10 to win 1 is tough to do for the average bettor. That’s why you get such a good price on a big lay bet like that. The average guy will take the horrible +550 instead just because they can’t stomach laying -1000 and I’m not just referring to No OT. There are numerous Super Bowl bridge jumper bets that have strong EV if you can handle the rare loss. I laid -1150 this year on a different bet and have laid as much as -7500 in years past. Those bets are ZERO fun to possess and in the end the reward may seem insufficient for the pain and suffering they cause until the bet wins. Simply put, they are not for the recreational bettor who lacks the proper mindset to make such a wager.
A good way to clarify some gambling situations is to take them to an extreme. Extend things to the far end of what’s reasonable and see what you think then. If that doesn’t clear things up then go further and extend it to the unreasonable. If a bet was offered that asked:
“Will Dwight Freeney score two TDs in the game?” and the price was YES +4000 and NO -7500. Would you lay out the -7500, take the +4000 or just pass?
Then ask yourself why you’d make that choice.
A little info on Dwight Freeney. He has played over 250 games in college and the pros and has scored 1 TD. Is it possible he would score? Yes, since he has before. Is it possible that he could score twice in a game? Theoretically speaking – absolutely. In reality though, the odds of him doing so are astronomical. Knowing that and seeing that you could lay 75 to win 1 would you do it?
On bets with big lay prices but big EV, Kelly betting would have you laying out big chunks of your bankroll. On the NO OT bet, based on a large sample true no-vig line of -1500, you’d be making a sizable wager of 30% of your bankroll if offered a price of -900. Even at half-Kelly it would still be a really big bet. Not only is the mindset different for large lay bets but so is the proper way to manage your bankroll when dealing with them. Kelly betting and making bridgejumper bets just don’t go together well.
I used -7500 for a reason on the hypothetical Freeney bet. It happens to be the same price as the biggest lay bet I’ve ever made. On Super Bowl Sunday with money still left to spend I found a prop at the online book 5Dimes. They offered -15000 (lay $15000 to win $100) that the Giants would not win every quarter in Super Bowl XLII. Any tie or win of a quarter by the 14pt favorite Patriots and the bet would win right there. I quickly passed on laying 150 to win 1 but a little later on I found the same bet at a big book for half the price. On first examination I though that the -15000 was decent value so now at -7500 I began to consider actually laying out 75K to win 1K. I had calculated that the odds of the NYG winning all four quarters outright were over 200-1 but at -15000 I was still able to pass. Now at -7500 I hemmed and hawed awhile then eventually clicked it in to win $1,000. Then the pain began.
From the moment the bet was confirmed until the time the bet won I was pretty miserable and regretted making the bet. Yes I would almost certainly win $1000 but the thought of losing $75K on one bet just dominated my thoughts all the way until kickoff. Then when the Giants won the 1Q outright I started to wonder if I needed to google “nearest bridge” in case I’d need that info later that night. The Pats mercifully won the second quarter and ended those thoughts but in the interim I came to realize that there was a certain choke point that each bettor has and that I had exceeded mine that day. I felt “sharp” for about 10 minutes after making the bet but then reality set in. Losing that large an amount with relatively so little to gain was just not worth the mental anguish. Although my choke point is probably higher than most, everyone has one and when it comes to bets like “No Overtime” and others like it most just can’t see the layout and potential loss being worth the return.
For that reason bridgejumper bets like No OT will remain good “value” for those who can handle the mental side of making such a wager and next Super Bowl we can expect the YES OT to be one of the more popular bets made by the public. After hitting this year all the “squares” will have that bet high on their list so there will be bargain prices to be had for those who still have the stomach for NO OT. I’m predicting record low prices on the NO next year. We’ll just have to wait and see whether it goes low enough to draw back in the bettors who lost big on it this year. Buy low-sell high is one of the basic principles of sports betting and next year the NO OT bet will be selling at rock-bottom prices.
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Good article and every sharp bettor has these thoughts . The pain of not getting EV is much worse than losing these types of bets. It is important to look at everything in the long run. Next year at post in Vegas you will probably find no OT at -500 no problem and have a nice 10% ev wager in your pocket.
This was a bad year for bridge jumpers.
No safety came in — but all the following lost
1. No overtime
2. No two-point conversion
3. No defensive or special teams touchdown
4. No scoreless quarter
Had Shackleford come on the Super Bowl prop bet show, these would likely have been among his recommendations — as they tend to be every year. I’m sure he’s glad he didn’t lead the rest of us down the losing path.
I’m fascinated by prop bets — but didn’t actually bet any this year. I’ve been on the losing end of big ‘no safety’ bets which lost in the past and I feel for those who lost big this year.
The thing about these types of bets is that while you are able to do it since most books limit based on win amounts, you don’t necessarily have to bet huge on these. Even if Kelly says I should risk far more, if mentally I don’t want to do it, there’s absolutely nothing wrong with still making the wager but risking an amount only say 3-4 times what I would risk on typical even money bets when laying 15 or 20 to 1.
While there may be practical limitations, for example, you may not want to have to drive to the sportsbook to cash a ticket with only a few tens of dollars in profit, these can always be managed, and a return of a few percent in one day should not disappoint anyone. A typical scenario would be to wager on all of the other “normal” plays I have, then dump the rest of my cash on hand or online credit into these bridge-jumpers.
Finally, laying big prices is consistently profitable across various areas of sports betting, not just props. One should always be on the lookout for market inefficiencies involving this style of wager.
The Oscars have been a good example over the years of overlay bridgejumpers. This years debacle should get the Oscar bettors to at least pump the brakes a little going forward. They were betting with both fists for awhile but losing a -1000 should slow them down.