I’ve used the “animal versus animal” jungle metaphor to describe video poker in the past. Let’s play around a little bit more with that analogy today.
Some people think of the casino as the lion in the jungle and the players as the smaller prey, but I don’t think of it that way at all. I see the casino as the owner of the jungle, and the players are all animals within that jungle. The bigger animals have an easier time surviving than the smaller animals.
What makes you a big or small animal isn’t so much the denomination you play, but rather the skill level you exhibit. The “big animals” are ones who only play the highest-returning machines and, further, only when there are lucrative promotions. These animals get richer because they’re going to be net winners.
The small animals are the ones who play the 98% of machines in every casino where the casino has such a big edge that the players are going to lose. There will be some winners today, of course, because it’s just as easy to hit a royal flush on a tight machine as on a loose one, but eventually these players will give it all back — and then some.
While the animal-eating-animal analogy isn’t totally apt here, the big animals will get bigger (richer) while the small animals will get smaller (poorer). In a very real sense, the jungle owner (the casino) makes enough money off of the small animals (i.e. net losing players) to pay off the bigger animals (i.e. net winning players) while still keeping enough profit to stay in business.
I was explaining this analogy to a group of quarter players who were complaining that the good games in Las Vegas local casinos were becoming fewer and tighter. I explained that this is largely because the number of big animals (i.e. players who can recognize good games and play well) has expanded — largely due to better software and other educational devices — so the casino owners have to make adjustments in order to stay in business. “It’s simple economics,” I said. “If you want to continue to succeed, you’re either going to have to broaden the range of games you play well or somehow get better than the other players.”
“Getting better” includes the usual suspects of practicing more on the computer, studying the problem hands in the Winner’s Guides, scouting around to find new opportunities, and learning different games that may return slightly less than the best game you know but are still over 100% when you include everything.
The best version of Super Double Bonus, for example, returns about 99.7%. It may be found in Las Vegas at casinos that return more than 0.3% from the slot club — at least some of the time. At the current time, this game is relatively “under the radar,” in that it isn’t discussed much in video poker writings. You can obtain a very decent strategy from “Video Poker for Winners” and can practice there until you have the game fairly well mastered. Doing this will extend your potential for being a “big animal” for a while. If and when this game disappears, there will be other opportunities.
These quarter players knew that I play for considerably larger stakes than they do. “With a big bankroll,” one surmised, “it must be a lot easier to make money in a casino than without one. You have all the same opportunities that I do, plus if you find something worthwhile on a $25 Triple Play machine you could play it and I wouldn’t dare.”
Sort of, but not exactly. Once you get used to playing for higher stakes, playing for lower stakes simply isn’t satisfying. Five dollar players virtually never play for quarters. It’s kind of like the lion of the jungle chasing down mice to eat. If he’s hungry enough he’ll probably do it, but the lion will be embarrassed if any other lion sees him slumming it.
The $5 and higher opportunities are far rarer than are the 25¢ opportunities for a couple of reasons. First of all, a relatively small proportion of players play $5 machines. Second, however, is that casinos are MUCH more careful with what opportunities they allow at the higher levels than what they allow at the 25¢ level. If they became “too generous” at the 25¢ level they could lose a few thousand dollars. That’s too bad from the casinos point of view, but hardly a disaster. If they were “too generous” at the $5 level, they could lose a few hundred thousands of dollars. That kind of mistake can cause heads to roll.
Another reason the competition is tougher at the higher denominations is that the most successful players play there. Obtaining the bankroll to play the larger machines can come in many different ways, but it includes all of the players who obtained their money by being net winners of millions of dollars and more from gambling. That is a tough crowd!
But whether you play large or small, it will require more expertise to survive in this jungle next year than it did last year simply because the level of knowledge concerning video poker is increasing. Whether you believe that video poker writers should be praised or condemned for providing this information, it’s a fact that as the information in the player community increases, casinos tighten machines in response.
I LIKE playing in this jungle. The challenges are real and the rewards are plentiful. If you can find a spot in the jungle where you can prosper, you’ll like the results. If you can’t find such a spot, you’ll be a net loser.
Not every player is after winning. For many recreational players, although losing in the jungle isn’t great, it sure beats not getting to play in the jungle at all.
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