Bonnie and I were having a casino meal with a woman in her late 20s. She and her husband (who was about the same age as she and not present at the lunch) were both players who were trying to decide whether to continue with their video poker career or go try something else.
The day before, this woman had hit a $40,000 royal flush on a $10 machine — her biggest jackpot to date.
“I look at this royal flush as evidence that the universe believes I should continue playing video poker,” she told us.
I, for one, believe that such thinking is nonsensical. Whether you call me a skeptic, an agnostic, or an atheist (none of these terms exactly fits my view of my beliefs — but possibly they are good enough for this article), I do not believe that some sort of Higher Power was involved in her hitting the royal flush.
She had been playing 8/5 Bonus Poker. With correct play, royals in that game come around every 40,000 hands or so. The fact that one hit the day before was coincidence. They are going to be hit some time by every player — and one came about the day before. The next one might be tomorrow — or maybe in a few months. You just don’t know. And they come about whether you believe in Higher Powers or you don’t.
The decision on whether or not to “go get a job” should properly depend on things like:
- What games are available in your area?
- How much can you reasonably expect to make playing video poker?
- How much do you like the game?
- What other skills and/or interests do you have?
None of the things on this list has anything to do with how long it has been since your last royal flush.
If your list includes something like, “What do you think God wants you to be doing?” the answer will probably always be, “I can’t believe God really thinks being a professional gambler is an enlightened way to live my life.” This type of consideration doesn’t enter into my decisions — but I recognize that for some people it does.
But while I don’t believe that a $40,000 jackpot is particularly significant in making the decision about whether to continue being a professional gambler, it could definitely make a difference bankroll-wise. One excellent reason to quit gambling is if you’re broke. Royal flushes can provide a cushion which tends to postpone the decision for another day.
It is common, yet misleading, to take stock of what you want to do with your gambling future immediately after you hit a big jackpot. The reason it’s misleading is that you are making a decision at a relative high point in your bankroll — and your bankroll may regularly fluctuate by significant amounts.
The fact that this couple today has $xxx in their gambling bankroll immediately after the $40,000 royal flush is just one data point. She could very well lose $10,000 or more tomorrow playing the same game. Would the decision about her future be the same after the $40,000 win as it would be after that $10,000 loss? If not, then why would you think that the decision you make one day which will affect your future for a long time is any more valid than the decision on another day?
Finally, I didn’t tell this young woman any of this on that day. This was a friendly get-together and the first time Bonnie and she had met. I knew the husband much better than I knew her — and he and I have had these bankroll discussions periodically. I didn’t need to have the same conversation with her. Each family has its own way of dealing with financial items and I’ll let them work it out.
Bonnie and I congratulated her and were happy for her. If she and her husband invite me to help them with this decision later, I will. I’m very fond of them and have a sort of grandfatherly relationship with her husband. But if I’m not invited to participate in this decision, that’s okay too.
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LOL, do a search on youtube for deteriorata, enjoy.
The old joke:
Question: “What is the difference between praying in church and praying in the casino?
“Answer: In the casino you REALLY mean it.”
Since Bonnie’s friend is having to think about it, I’d guess that at this time she should take that 40K and ice it down for a while, let it grow or pay some bills, or pay back some loans. It certainly is none of my business. But if the “universe” has something to say, it just as well be might be “Lock it down.”
I wonder whether that young lady knows that she will not wind up with $40,000 for hitting that royal flush. She likely will have to pay taxes on it, maybe as much as 28%. Perhaps the casino kept the 28% and only paid her 72% of it; if not, she will be forking over a chunk of it when she does her taxes. This is the reality that almost nobody who plays at levels higher than the quarter level wants to admit: that there truly isn’t any “advantage play” at the 50-cent level or higher because you have to hand over some percentage of it unless your annual income is below a certain amount. Even if you’re staring at a 101% return after all the pluses have been added in, you’re going to have to give up more than 1% in taxes, probably much more than that. I think that the people who play “professionally” (at high stakes, and for a living) are lucky and have gotten more than their fair share of high-paying royals. They’re inclined to attribute their profit to skill when it’s really luck. The folks who get less than their fair share of royals at high stakes will likely have to abandon the endeavor because they’re continually behind financially even if they play VP hands accurately.
I smiled at this line, Bob: “One excellent reason to quit gambling is if you’re broke.”
Al, your lengthy comment could almost as well be applied to any sole proprietorship business. “Gee, I have to pay taxes at the end of the year based on my net profit, so what’s the point?” Bob’s friends were pretty clearly in the business of gambling. The main difference between gambling and any other sole proprietorship is that in the event of a losing year, a professional gambler cannot deduct his or her net loss from other income, nor carry it over to offset profits in other years. If they are skillful enough, they can minimize the impact of that handicap.
Ignorance can be a dangerous thing.
Thank you Candy for your post and that old joke! I’d forgotten that one until you posted. It really takes me back!
I think Al is spot on. So many good points in there with these razor thin EV plays.
You are welcome, Jeffrey. At my age, it is one of the few (clean ones) I can remember. LOL.
Ha! Here’s another one for Candy.
Guy walks into a cafe, asks the waitress, “What’s the soup of the day?”
The waitress says “Las Vegas Gumbo.”
The guy asks “What’s Las Vegas Gumbo?”
The waitress says “If you order it, the odds are against you.”
I totally agree. I’ve lost about 2500.00 this year and have about 9300.00 in W-2G income. Thus instead of being down 2500.00 I’m down about 4000.00 with the new tax rules. If you don’t itemize you will have to pay taxes on 12000 as a single filer. Yikes!
Video Poker player orders coffee without cream. Waitress comes back with, “Sorry, we’re out of cream. Would you like it without milk?”