A Primer on Props

The Super Bowl is the biggest betting event of the year. Last year players wagered $158.6 million in Nevada. Many analysts believe that the handle will more than double this year with legalized betting in eight states. The big draw for amateur and professional bettors alike is the large selection of prop bets available. If you’re one of the many who will look to enhance your viewing pleasure with some skin in the game, here are some quick tips to help you make wise betting decisions.

The Public Drives Pricing

Due to the immense amount of money wagered on the game, the Super Bowl is one of the rare events where public money determines the closing price. This can sometimes create inefficiencies in the betting market. When looking for the edge in prop betting, find situations where the public opinion skews heavily in one direction. Also understand that the public loves to see things happen. If given the choice, the public almost always bets the Yes on a rare event occurring.

Similarly, the public often bets the Over on the sum total of something. Not only does this move lines on bets leading up to the game, but it factors into the opening lines for props as well. With last year’s game being a shootout and this year’s game possibly having the highest total in Super Bowl history, there’ll be no shortage of over bets on props. Look for value on the Under and No.

Dig Deep

Prop betting sheets are often similar to buffets. The high-margin cheap food is near the front so that you’ll load up on that. The better stuff is farther down the line. As you peruse prop offerings, be sure to dig deep into the list of bets. Look far past the coin-toss props to find some real meat. In many cases, bookmakers have put out hundreds of prop offerings for this game and there’s a good chance they’ve made some pricing mistakes somewhere. Pay closer attention to props which have precedent. While the Rams and Patriots didn’t play each other this season, they did share some common opponents. You can also find props that have little to do with this match-up, but apply to any individual NFL game.

Know Your Long Shots

Recreational bettors love to take long shots on the game. It goes back to the concept of wanting a rare event to happen. It’s that lottery mentality of wanting to bet a little and win a lot. There are plenty of long shots available in the Super Bowl, but you should know when to use them. For instance, betting on a long shot to win Super Bowl MVP is a poor choice. Nine of the last 12 Super Bowls have had QBs named MVP, and historically, 56% of the 52 games have resulted in a QB MVP.

Betting on overtime to occur will be a popular option given the results in the Conference Championships. However, there’s still been only one overtime in Super Bowl history and roughly 6.5% of all regular-season games reach an extra frame. You won’t find +1500 offered on the Yes. Value will be on No Overtime. If you want to go for a long shot, try something like an alternate total or alternate point spread. For instance, betting on the game to go over 73.5 points at +600. Still unlikely, but you also have the benefit of in-game betting to ensure a profit if you’d like.

Man V. Team

Cross-sport props are very popular. These are wagers on something happening in the Super Bowl versus something happening in another sport’s game being played that weekend. These can be fun mental exercises in finding value. A key point to remember is that it’s far easier for a team to accomplish something than it is for an individual. For instance, an individual player is subject to possible injury or might have an off game; whereas it’s less likely for an injury to affect the result for an entire team. Cross-sport props are typically way in the back of the available listed props. See what I mean about digging deep for the value?

Be Prepared to Shop Around

The Super Bowl prop markets offer hundreds of bets. Unlike standard sides and totals, the books often don’t have a handle on what their competitors are offering. If you’re willing to do the leg work, or the “app work,” you can shop around to find the best price on the props you like. Furthermore, there are always middle and arbitrage opportunities in the Super Bowl prop market. Be aware that lines and prices often move and printed betting sheets don’t always reflect the current price. The professional bettors feast on the props for the first 24 hours after they’re posted, then they largely sit back and let the public take its shots. Sometimes there’s late value to be found in the final hours right up until kickoff.

If you’re brave, post your favorite prop bets on this year’s game in the comments below. There’s no fame or shame to be had. Good luck to all!