Another Round of Progress

It’s been a couple months since we last recapped where various states are in the sports wagering legalization process. We currently have six states offering legalized sports betting: Nevada, Delaware, New Jersey, Mississippi, West Virginia, and New Mexico. When will we see the next state open up? Where does your state stand? Let’s skip all over the map and see what’s coming next.

Next up: Pennsylvania

A few weeks ago, Santa Ana Star Casino outside Albuquerque in New Mexico announced it would soon be offering sports wagering. This was a surprise to many. We were all focused on the legislative process and completely ignored that some sovereign Indian tribes might push toward sports betting as part of its state compact. This probably won’t be the last tribe to make this move. I’m researching a future blog that will address which states are susceptible to this end run around state legislatures. Until then, we’ll focus on just the state regulated players.

Much has been made of Pennsylvania’s high tax rate and steep licensing fees possibly inhibiting a strong sports wagering market. For a while, it appeared that no casino was willing to be the first to step forward on sports betting. However, the casino entities eventually caved one by one. Now there are seven casinos that have applications in some degree of progress in Pennsylvania.

First to market will likely be Parx Casino just north of Philadelphia. Parx is partnered with European provider Kambi and will probably offer lines similar to what is seen at Kambi operations in New Jersey at DraftKings, PlaySugarhouse, and 888Sports. Hollywood Casino outside Harrisburg will likely be second. As a Penn National casino, it’s partnered with William Hill. Other familiar players in the Keystone State will be FanDuel partnering with Valley Forge Casino outside Philadelphia; BetStars partnering with Mount Airy casino, which is geographically closest to New York City; Harrah’s Philadelphia using the Caesars bookmaking brand; Rivers Casino located near Heinz Field in Pittsburgh; and Sugarhouse Casino, located in Philadelphia, also partnering with Kambi.

The goal of each of these casinos is to capture some of the football money that springs eternal this time of year. Bettors simply love the NFL and College Football. However, it’s unlikely that any of the Pennsylvania applicants will be in position to take bets before the NFL playoffs begin in early January. When they do, it’ll be interesting to see what level of investment they make into their physical sports betting operations. With the high tax rate, operating overhead is a serious impediment to profitability. Moreover, online and mobile betting has lower costs. Fewer employees, less physical space, and less investment. Given some of the partnerships, there likely won’t be impressive sports books to catch a game in like we’re used to in Las Vegas or even at the Ocean in Atlantic City.

Soon to Follow: Rhode Island

Meanwhile, in Rhode Island, fans of sports betting are falling victim to the Lottery Model I wrote about in my last blog. In the midst of a rapid expansion in many states, the contracted gaming entities haven’t  made Rhode Island a priority. William Hill will handle risk management for the state while IGT handles the software systems. As we discussed before, Rhode Island’s 51% effective tax rate and lack of sports book competition shows they are treating sports betting like a lottery ticket that’s sold to the public. If you want to bet, they’ll give you something to bet, but don’t expect to get that Las Vegas experience.

Rhode Island will offer betting only at its two casinos: Twin Rivers and Tiverton. At this point, it doesn’t appear likely that betting will commence during this NFL season. Much like Pennsylvania, it’s likely to be just after the new year when you can wager on a game legally in Rhode Island.

Strong Progress: Illinois, Indiana, and New York

There are a number of states that are moving very quickly toward writing laws to govern sports wagering. Many of these states were buoyed by strong revenue numbers coming out of New Jersey, West Virginia, and Mississippi. We’re seeing legislative hearings being held to inform lawmakers. In Illinois, the tone of the hearings was decidedly positive toward sports betting. Over the course of four hours, legislators heard testimony from casinos, sports leagues, proponents, and opponents alike. A day later in Indiana it was similar.

Essentially, the hearings all take a similar structure. The casinos state that they need sports wagering to compete and to bring a black market into the light. Sports leagues argue that they’re entitled to compensation in some way because it’s their intellectual property being gambled on. They insist that sports wagering places an undue burden upon them to police their leagues and preserve the integrity of the games. Typically, a lawmaker challenges their statements and cites how betting has existed underground for decades and the leagues have done fine without a cut. Next, a vendor such as SportRadar or BetGenius testifies how the technology has progressed to make tracking and geolocation strong enough to encourage mobile-betting options. There’s always testimony from anti-gambling groups who see the proliferation of gambling as a troublesome blight on society.

It looks like there’s a strong possibility that we’ll see bills beginning to move in Illinois and Indiana in the next few months. Lastly, New York is still poised to legalize betting at all state casinos and racetracks sometime this legislative session. However, don’t expect definitive action to take place until closer to the end of the session in June. Sports wagering is too strong a bargaining chip to be used early. The good news for New York bettors is the ramp-up to betting won’t take long. Most casinos and racetracks are already taking steps. You’ll be betting in New York sometime in the Summer 2019.

An Interesting Player in Washington DC

Meanwhile, in Washington DC there’s a bill that looks likely to pass. DC is looking to implement a lottery model, but one that’s decidedly more like West Virginia’s than Delaware’s. A modest $50,000 licensing fee and a 10% tax rate makes DC look attractive to gaming companies.

The twist in DC is there are no casinos in the city. There is, however, an NBA and NHL arena and an owner keen on getting into the sports betting game. Look for Ted Leonsis to be the first to create some form of in-stadium betting for his Washington Wizards NBA team, Washington Capitals NHL team, or Washington Valor Arena Football team. This could really be a game changer when it comes to sports entertainment. One other twist in DC is that any city law must first be reviewed by the US Congress. It’s unlikely it would veto this measure, but it’s definitely an extra wrinkle to the story. Look for betting in DC to show up sometime in Spring 2019.

Other States in Play: Ohio, Kentucky, Maryland, and More

Beyond the sure things, a handful of states have signaled that they’re not opposed to regulating sports betting. Previously, the impetus for action has usually been gambling dollars crossing over to another state to be spent. That’s largely what will force the action in Ohio (losing money to Pennsylvania and Indiana), Kentucky (losing money to West Virginia, Ohio, and Indiana), Maryland (losing money to all its neighbors except Virginia). I would make each of these states to be favorites to have sports wagering in some form by the end of 2019.

If you’re looking at a map of the United States you’ll notice that sports wagering is like a virus contagion spreading westward. That will likely continue to be the march to legalization. Missouri will want it once Illinois goes live. Iowa won’t be far behind either. Eventually, Oklahoma, with its multitude of tribal casinos will be pressured to expand its compact to allow for sports wagering. Once Oklahoma falls, the rest of the betting Midwest won’t be far behind.

I’ve rambled on long enough. I’ll end this column with a table of my personal handicaps for when you can expect to wager in all the remaining states. This doesn’t include the wild card tribal casino plays that might spring up.

Stay on top of developments as they take place with our map that tracks the rapidly evolving landscape for legalized sports betting.