“Don’t Be So Negative”

This is a repeat of a column from more than 10 years ago. Today, the games are different. I play at different places. I’ve even changed my wife! (Not on purpose. Fortunately, I’ve ended up in a good place with Bonnie. Shirley has moved back to Las Vegas after a time in California. She started showing up at the same advanced square dance group that Bonnie and I attend. For a time, it was awkward for Bonnie, but not so much anymore. I have no interest in turning back the clock and hooking up with Shirley again, and I’m pretty sure she feels similarly.) The thought processes I went through at the time remain intact today and are worth discussing.

One Wednesday evening, I was at my desk, answering email, recording daily results, preparing an article for the next week, etc. Shirley came in and asked if there was anything she could do. I told her she could sort my bag if she wanted.

That day I’d been to six different casinos — playing reasonably heavily at two of them and picking up free play at the other four. I knew approximately how much cash I had, but I wanted to know precisely. Since we’re ahead this year, Shirley doesn’t mind counting the money. I wanted to know my cash-on-hand for a lot of reasons, but one of which would be to determine whether I needed to “reload.” I have funds in several safety deposit boxes around town and I replenish what I carry with me when needed.

It turned out that I had $4,500 on me, which is more than I usually carry. My “big play” the next day would be at Sam’s Town where I would be playing the $5 progressive for about $50,000 worth of coin-in. It was a “Young at Heart” day (5x points plus a drawing). In addition, any play would earn drawing tickets for that weekend’s drawing which I was also planning on attending. I could lose more than $4,500 at Sam’s Town with that much play, but there was probably a less-than-5%-chance of it happening. Plus, I had a line of credit there “in case.”

I told Shirley that I had a good amount for the next day but would need to get some more before Sunday when I was planning on playing close to a half-million dollars coin-in at a Strip casino.

“Don’t be so negative,” she told me. “You don’t know that you’ll need more. You could win. I know we’re behind at that casino, but it could turn around this time.”

Shirley and I weren’t talking about the same thing. I’m talking about what would be the largest amount I could lose if I played the same amount 25 times. (I know I’m only going to play it once, but what happens once is frequently dependent on luck. When I consider how much cash on hand to have, I need to look at what happens when I run bad. Usually in 25 tries, I run bad at least once.) I don’t want to run out in the middle of a play. If I have a line of credit at a casino (at this particular place I didn’t), then I don’t need so much.

I was not being negative in the slightest. Without going into details here, I believed that I had the advantage on this play and if I could repeat it over and over again, I would end up healthily ahead. If this weren’t the case, I wouldn’t be playing there at all. I’m actually optimistic about my chances.

Shirley was concentrating on whether or not I would be ahead on that particular Sunday. I have no way of knowing that beforehand. She believes in the power of positive thinking. While this does have its place in many instances, it has little to do with whether or not I’m going to hit a royal flush on a particular day. I will play the best I know how and let the chips fall where they may. 

I don’t go around saying “I know I’m going to lose” or “I know I’m going to win.” Many players do this, but not me. Future results are simply unknowable. I don’t pretend to have powers to foresee the future on a play-by-play basis.

I do believe I have the power to predict the future on an approximate basis. I can calculate when I have the edge, and I believe that if I continue to play with an edge, positive results will occur. I don’t know when. I don’t know exactly how much. But I know approximately how much over time and I’m comfortable living with that type of uncertainty.