I was leaving the South Point one morning in early June and “Sam,” a man who has attended many of my classes over the years, approached me and said, “Bob, I have to ask you. How long can a losing streak last? I haven’t hit a royal flush since November.” For occasional players, a six- or seven-month royal-free streak would not be that unusual. But I’ve seen Sam in casinos dozens of times, so I assume it’s been several 40,000-hand cycles. Always painful. Always expensive.
And the answer is: There is no mechanism to guarantee the streak will end after so many hands. Assuming appropriate play, you’re just as likely to go royal-free over the next 40,000 hands (or any other number) if you haven’t hit one in year as you are if you’ve hit three royals in the past week. The machines do not know how long it’s been for you. The machines are just dealing cards and the results are what they are.
In round numbers, you have about one chance in three of hitting zero royals in the next 40,000 hands; one chance in three in hitting exactly one royal in that time period; and one chance in three in hitting two or more royals. The exact numbers depend on what game you’re playing. Jacks or Better and Double Double Bonus, for example, get royals more often on average than Double Bonus and Deuces Wild.
I wish I could tell Sam that there was a really good chance that he’ll hit a royal by next Tuesday, but that’s just not the case. Nobody knows when Sam’s next royal is coming.
When I get this question, and I’ve gotten versions of it more than one hundreds times over the years, my answer usually includes, “When it happens to me, this is what I do . . .” Because it does happen to me periodically. I’ve had tons of dry spells and tons of “wet” spells. There is no such thing as being such a good player that you’re immune from losing streaks. It happens to all of us.
Completing the “this is what I do” thought started in the past paragraph, when I go through a losing streak, I go back to basics. I review my strategies. I try to 100% memorize the games. I re-evaluate whether I’m playing with an advantage. I slow down so as to not introduce any errors through carelessness.
Does this help? I’m not sure. But psychologically I then feel I’m doing the best I can.
I don’t know Sam’s financial situation. Possibly he has the bankroll to ride out this streak without unduly affecting things. Possibly he doesn’t. If he’s okay with, say, losing $10,000 a year, but not more, then quite possibly he’s exceeded this loss limit during this streak. This can lead to an uncomfortable conversation with his wife as to what to do next.
In Sam’s case, I know his wife is also a video poker player, so presumably she has a basic understanding of losing streaks, because undoubtedly, she’s been through them before. But not all spouses are players. Not all spouses are understanding of these things.
Sometimes it comes down to, “We’re going to need to cash in your 401K or you’re going to need to stop gambling until we build up another bankroll.” These are never comfortable decisions.
Sam told me the game he is playing most is 8/5 Bonus Poker. While this is a much looser game than many of my readers find in their local casinos, this is not a winning game. You begin with a 99.2% game (probably multiplied by 99% because of less than perfect play, but I don’t actually know how accurately he plays) and add in the 0.3% slot club, but even with the South Point’s promotions and mailers, the house probably has a small advantage. Sam will eventually end his royal-free streak, but overall, he’ll still be losing.
If Sam can learn NSU Deuces Wild, which returns more than a half-percent more, he has a much better chance of being a winning player. The royal cycle is longer at this game (closer to 43,500 hands than the 40,000-hand Bonus Poker cycle), but over time his score will be better. At the South Point, he’ll definitely be playing with an advantage if he masters this game.
I didn’t check to see if Sam has introduced any bad habits into his game try to end this losing streak. Like, perhaps, playing less than maximum coins, or taking extra chances because “he’s due.” Over time these things exacerbate the problem rather than solve it.
Remember, whether or not you’re winning over a particular period of time, like a year or less, is largely considered by the number of royal flushes you hit. So that’s what people tend to focus on. Whether or not you’re winning over a longer period of time is more dependent on what games you’re playing, at what accuracy, with what casino benefits, during what promotions. Over several years, most of us will hit close to the normal number of royals. (It doesn’t have to be true for any one person during something as short as a lifetime. But it is true for all of us as a group.)
Focusing on royals isn’t where our problems lie. Focusing on the other things I listed in the previous paragraph is far more important to playing a winning game.
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Several years ago, I started playing triple play 8/5 BP at Bally’s in Atlantic City. I was trying to make Diamond Level. Because Caesars was still giving one point for $10 coin in on this game, it seemed the best way to get to my goal without losing my a$$.
Anyway, I hit a royal the first time I played. That was the beginning of the most amazing royal streak I have ever had. I would play a few days in a row every few weeks (I live 3-1/2 hours away but have a small condo in AC). I hit a royal *at least* once each trip!
Luckily, this streak occurred from mid-November until late February. The tax bite would have been much worse had my winnings been in a single year.
Of course, all good things, as they say…..
I play much less now. Have had only two royals in several months. That’s the nature of the beast, I guess. But it was sure fun while it lasted. 😃
My 23 years of play, like most long-term players, have seen feast and famine. Somewhere out there you likely know a player who hit upon “famine” with their very initial play. I often assume that might have been the case when I come across an otherwise intelligent player who has thrown “advantage” play patience to the wind in favor of strategies involving “timing”: switching between games with differing variance, denomination swaps, alternating short-coin/full-coin bets, etc.
Most pro writers, such as Bob, take pains to stress the ravages of the short term, but their most emphatic message is on the near-certainties that long-term disciplined play can bring. The message is accurate, but “natural” gamblers tend to stress opportunity and discount risk. When “advantage” play strategy pans out to an early, consistent run of losses, it’s not surprising that some become aggressive heretics ;).
I understand, as I suggest others should, that royals come unexpectedly, but they do come. In between the times they don’t and then do , the smart players stick to the strategy which allows them to play longer and play more hands. That, in reality, is all one can do – as I always tell myself when struggling – ” I am only one hand away from a winner”.
I was on a 2.5 year no royal streak then was dealt a royal two weeks ago playing JOB.
I can only play videopoker during my visit in Las Vegas. Without Covid restrictions I usually visit Las Vegas 2x per year. European casinos have no or, in some countries very lousy vp with terrible paytables. That’s why I play only in Las Vegas. Before each trip starts I give myself 1 month of training time on my computer to refresh my skills. Still, I play in the range of 99 per cent accuracy. Sometimes I can go up to 99.20 per cent circa, but seldom higher. It’s just too tough to remember all tricky situations, and I certainly overlook this and that problem during long sessions too.
Given the fact that I only have around 20 days each time, I play as much as I can during these days and , amazingly, I’ve had several Royals during most of these trips. My personal record was a 7 or 8 royals’ trip and I can only remember having hit 1 royal only at about 1 or 2 trips altogether. My statistical records aren’t that accurate but my memory still functions. I’ve had trips without royals and I felt frustrated, but most of the times I got at least one royal to “bring home” , but most of the visits at least 3 or more.
I’ve realized that being without a royal for 1 week and 10 hours play per day can also become very expensive. If you get dealt 1 royal every 4 days or so, then you can be more than happy. Plus, you will most likely be in the winning zone. That^s how I see it.
My game is NSUD under good conditions. The multipliers help a lot getting enough comp dollars to pay for my food and that’s already something. A little break on the hotel bill is another big plus. In terms of deuces wild, I noticed that I need about 2 sets of deuces per day to stay above water. If I end up a session without getting 4 deuces, then it’s usually a bad day. Such days are rare, but a week without a Royal Flush usually also gets expensive. I only play 50 cents machines because of the tax problem that I have whenever I hit something higher than 1199. Still, my overall results of the past 10 days have been so good that I consider myself being “over-royaled”. Even if I will face zero-royal trips in the future, it doesn’t affect my life because I don’t depend on it and consider it a game that I play for pleasure. Winning is more fun than losing, of course, but even if I fly back home a loser it’s not a disaster for me. If you consider videopoker as a thing that gives you pleasure rather than a thing that you want to make money with, then it’s a completely different story. Think about.
From Switzerland
Boris
Boris,
Depending on the mistakes made, 99% accurate can cost you 0.1% or 1.0%, depending on the mistakes made. It is more important how much the mistakes cost you ( and how often those hands occur) instead of the percentage of correct hands. NSUD has many, many hands that are exceptions to the published strategies but don’t affect your results very much. 2 card straight flushes, hands like 7892 unsuited, etc are hands that might be played incorrectly but don’t cost you very much.
I’d concentrate on the lost EV from mistakes more so that just the number of mistakes.
Jimmy, i have missed holding a deuces because I was not focused, or because I was chatting with my neighbor or because I was playing too many sessions. Or because of a sticky button that you pressed but did not press hard enough so you missed it.
If you miss one deuce while holding 2 other deuces and finally end up with 3 deuces again (instead of 4) then it’s definetely time to take a break…. (fortunately when I missed a deuce, which has happened to me a few times over the course of time) I never received the remaining deuces, so did not feel all that bad…..
Hey Bob
I’m at about 40 k hands since last royal so I’m anticipating but know it might be a while.
Question: on JOB machine, what % of hands are a total redeal? It seems like it is happening more than expected on a bank I play on.
Thanks
pjh