In a recent blog post I wrote:
Another factor that is true for me that isn’t universally true for other players is that I have the ability to figure out and master strategies and I enjoy doing so. Thinking about, writing about, studying, and playing video poker occupies a much larger part of my waking hours, even after about 30 years of doing this, than these things occupy in the lives of most other players.
A poster named Jerry apparently thought I was too full of myself and responded:
No offense, but what you do is really not that special. But keep thinking it is if that is what floats your boat.
I didn’t make the original statement in the sense of, “Hey! Look at me! I’m so clever!” I am not contending that being a competent video poker player makes me unique, or worthy of a Nobel Prize, or anything of the sort, but I do think skill level is something that differentiates me from most other players.
In my classes, I’d get a large number of players who would come up and tell me they practiced on the computer all the time and the best they could do was 98% accuracy. They’d want to know if that was good enough.
My answer was that it was plenty good enough if they wanted to enjoy video poker for a hobby and were playing for relatively small stakes considering to their bankroll. But at that accuracy level, they were playing a losing game. If their ambition was to make money at video poker, 98% was nowhere near a level that would help them attain that goal.
I don’t have any accurate numbers on how many players are net winners. Tax data is the only place such information is collected and I don’t have access to it. Plus, every player has an incentive to understate wins and overstate losses. And every player decides for himself how to keep records. (Do you, for example, report every bit of free play, or all wins of less than $1,200? I suggest you’re in the minority if you do, even though the IRS rules say you should do both of these things. And do you consider comps as winnings? Or free meals? Or . . . ?)
Given that every estimate somebody makes on this sort of thing must be taken with a huge grain of salt, my experience is that less than 20% of players are actually winners at this game on a long-term basis.
But let’s say 20% even. The players who are in this more-successful 20% have skills that the other 80% don’t. Different people have different skills, of course. I listed a few skills in the original quotation, but we could also include such things as the ability to obtain and retain a bankroll, the psychological ability to put up with losing sessions and losing streaks, competence in a number of different games, access to good games, the willingness to scout, a network of other players where you talk about opportunities at various casinos, the ability to figure out promotions, and the ability to adjust your sleep schedule so that if there is a juicy promotion on the graveyard shift, you’re able to take advantage of it. Knowing the correct play on every hand when you study it as a test question is one thing. Correctly executing that play when you’re in the casino playing quickly is another. Playing progressives properly is an entirely different skill than playing games with a 4,000-coin royal.
To be successful at video poker, you don’t have to be good at all of those things — but it helps if you are. High intelligence isn’t mandatory. But it helps.
I don’t know who the poster “Jerry” is. Perhaps I know him under a different name. Perhaps I would recognize him if I saw him. Maybe he’s in the successful 20%. I don’t know. But somebody who is in that 20% and has been so for decades is a relatively rare individual. And such a player can master a strategy better than players who are not in that 20%.
That’s what I was trying to say.
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Fair enough Bob. It just sometimes comes off as so arrogant.
I am in the 20% for sure but with that said, the last 10 years are breakeven but I’m just a 4-6 trip-a-year type guy and not living in Vegas.
Haters gonna hate, Bob… It’s usually just jealousy… I for one, appreciate your info… I just wish the best game at my local casino in Vancouver was a little better than 9-7 Double Bonus at $1… The free play isn’t too bad at .5%, and I’ve gotten lots of bonus points, and a free cruise out of it, so thanks for the info you provide. Oh, and I play at 99.7% accuracy.
Most people can take reasonable stock of what they know and understand. But a few are totally blind to knowledge that they themselves lack. While they may be reasonably skilled, they’re convinced no one could possess greater skill because they’re incapable of perceiving greater acumen, when present.
Jerry’s comments betray such blindness.
I’m fairly confident I could play faster and just as accurate as Bob. But I am younger as well. Just saying…..
Compare the life of a to advantage gaming dedicated player with mountain climbing.
In the beginning you are surrounded by fog. Then you reach higher terrain with still clouds here and there around you. The higher you walk the better the view gets. And finally your overview the whole landscape (meaning reality) in crystal clear air.
I would assume that Bob Dancer meanwhile has reached the summit or is close.
But the majority of the top 20% video players still struggle to get out of the clouds so to say.
I’m happy as a pretty good recreational vp player & don’t take it too seriously. Many times I’ve come out ahead and, of coarse, losing days too. Less stress, more fun! Bob’s books, videos & articles have been a big help!
The 98% accuracy comment needs further clarification. Unless you are playing a stud game like Pick ’em, you can do quite well with that level of accuracy depending on the type of mistakes you are making. Using the VPFW Analyze tab as an example I had the occasion to practice 9/6/90 JoB recently for a game that unfortunately has since been “corrected”. I was clocking 99% accuracy with regard to correct hands. Fortunately I was 100% accurate on beginner hands, made one mistake on intermediate hands and the rest of the mistakes were on advanced. Despite making a mistake 1 out of every 100 hands, the net result for “return percentage” was 99.99% of perfect. This is a much better indicator of success than just accuracy. I can live with getting 99.99% of the return from a 99.996% game. Net impact from errors made my effective return 99.986% despite an accuracy of only 99%. When coupled with a theo of over 3.5%, it just wasn’t worth the time to memorize all the subtle SF shifts in the strategy for me.
I think it’s important to note that our result will not always reflect the level of skill we exhibit when we play in a casino. This is simply not guaranteed. As a matter of fact, this correlation might only be true a minority of the time (i.e., less than 50% of the time). This is because results are random and can be “all over the map”. There is simply nothing about playing video poker that makes it necessarily true that our result will reflect our skill level. And players with the top skill level will not always do better than those who do not take the game seriously; in fact, it’s often the opposite. I am very fastidious with respect to using strategy cards (my own) to make the correct play on every hand, so I rarely make a mistake; yet I’ve often had sessions in which my net result was around 90% even though all the VP games I play are over 99%. By contrast, I knew a lady player who was a “disdainer” (she eschewed strategy and played for fun, always going for the big hits on Double Double Bonus), and she usually did better on her playing sessions than I did. Additionally, her husband played regular roulette (5.26% house edge) and he won most of the time, and was ahead in the long run; that should not have happened, and he should’ve done worse than me in the long run, but he didn’t. This is all because of “luck”, or whatever statistical term you want to use to refer to the unpredictability of results.
I see players going by the hit-and-run strategy. The get 4 deuces, cash-out and walk. Happens a lot if somebody hits a Royal and feels excited about it (including me).
I see crazy stuff during my time there. Some people tip the slot-attendant , and the supervisor that confirms the payout and sometimes I wonder if these people understand that by tipping a lot it takes off so much off from the actual payout that no matter how good they play, minor errors put in monetary terms/value become microscopic compared to the money being tipped to the staff. Of course one thing doesn’t have to do anything with the other, but it’s the money that’s missing in your wallet by the end of the day, whether you give it away by tipping a lot, drinking a lot or clicking it away by making minor or mediocre errors during play.
Speaking as a tourist, I am aware of the fact that I play 99 per cent accuracy at best, minus the tax problem, but I still get a good game where i play, and good service. Overall I take it into consideration and enjoy playing while in Vegas. Even if many times I am returning home a loser. It’s still great playing good videopoker and pay that little surcharge. I wouldn’t want to grind out my vacation time penny picking and saving every single dollar for all it’s worth just to grind out 500 or 1000 dollars by time my trip ends. This is not my definition of vacation time.
From Switzerland
Boris
My whole premise was said better by Al.
Typically, up to 97% of game return is determined by frequently occurring hands for which the “long term” is exceedingly short. What this means is that it’s often the case that actual return for these hands converges on expected return to within 0.1% within a year or two for even an active recreational player.
Game variance is highly concentrated in hands such as a RF, or quads w/ kickers in DDB, etc. These are hands that can take 1 million, or even 3 million plays, to closely approach expected results. But even at 500k hands, it’s highly probably that the return on these hands, in aggregate, will come within 0.5% of expectation.
Bottom line, I’ve never heard a “pro” (as in someone who I reliably sense sees consistently profitable play over the mid-term) argue that the randomness of video poker dwarfs the improved expectation that comes from honing strategy.
LOL. You’re actually a modest soul. If you’re arrogant, get this.
People have been asking me, since my first interview in 1979, what’s required to win at football betting. I say something like, “Well, if you’re in the top 1% on any kind of IQ test, that helps. if you’re in the top 1% of the population in cardio fitness, then you can use those brains 24/7 without getting as tired as most people. Then, if you grew up in an environment where football was king, like Pennsylvania, Texas or Ohio, that contributes because you’re immersed in football 24/7. Then if you toss in a dose of being really streetwise and reading between the lines (note the double entendre there), that helps. And finally, you gotta start applying everything young, as in early teens at the latest, so you get a good jumpstart on those Gladwell 10,000 hours of expertise. If you are all that and can do all that, then at least you have a chance.”
If that’s arrogance, so be it. I make no apologies. It’s the truth. Better to warn people off than get them stuck in the muck and the mire without being properly forewarned, trained, and equipped.
I just did a 1000 hands training session on my computer. To do that, it takes roughly 2 hours, because I am writing down the capital errors that I make during play.
The problem about computer training is that sometimes the mouse responds in a way you don’t want it and sometimes you click to fast because you are taking things not seriously enough. Still, it helps a lot.
I am throwing in this because I would like to mention the aspect that no matter how well somebody can play videopoker, it happens all the time that a card is not being held when playing too fast or when being distracted. Those little errors sometimes are mathematically expensive. On the other hand, it also turns out that even while making a major error you get rewarded and end up with a big hand that you would never have got if you have played the hand correctly. Some readers will probably agree with me on that.
What I am just saying is that playing perfectly is almost impossible to do over the stretch of a 6 or 8 hours’ session and that’s why we should be more realistic. I think if someone can play at a 99.50 per cent level then he/she is already considered as an expert. It takes those little extra promotions and comps to get you above the 100 per cent threshold. And luck as well. It’s the additional Royal that you can catch within 1 month that usually makes the big difference. Not the tiny little error whether to hold a 3-Royal Flush with 1 flush penalty plus pair card or hold it differently , in Deuces Wild.
From Switzerland
Boris
So now this is something that probably only super experts can explain to me, and I would definetely appreciate if somebody with expertise can explain:
Hand 1: (K-J-3)-Q-4
Hand 2: (K-J-5)-Q-7
Why is it that hand 1 and hand 2 are not being played equally? The game is NSUD. In hand one the computer says redraw, and in hand 2 the computer says hold (K-J). The mistake to get lost and confuse the strategy are minor but still it is something that a fast playing player probably will not realize….
Thank you for your comments
From Switzerland
Boris
I thought I retired from video poker. Well I’m back it! I just love the game and challenge too much! And I met Bob at his very last January 2020 South Point class. I think it was a sign from the video poker god’s to keep playing!
Well, playing conditions on the East Coast have drastically eroded a lot, just in the past year too. Casinos that offered even marginally playable games have been tearing them out. In fact, one property completed gutted their entire video poker area of I would say approximately 100 machines, put in a huge Lightning Link slot area, and moved their video poker area to now have only about 20 machines in a warm area of the casino, which are all a complete joke. Kind of sad, but then again I never really liked the properties that much anyway.
I took a 3 day weekend and scouted out a new spot out of state, but within a reasonable couple hours drive. Place is great, except the drink service was horrible, so that limited my play last session.
Arriving for a graveyard shift, I didn’t realize that (I think) all drink service must stop by midnight. You can’t even get a soda or coffee without leaving your machine. That was about the only real negative. The place seems to have horrible cocktail service anyway, so maybe they just didn’t have any workers, who knows.
Very sound advice about being able to stay mentally focused and calm after losses or long losing streaks. The tide always turns eventually if you are a strong player. So far I’m net positive for the year, but did take several months off, so perhaps not the best example. Comps are essentially nil here at the quarter denom., dollar players still get noticed, but it takes long sessions and a lot of coin in.
I’m a serious, skilled player and have that competitive edge to win. But if I lose, I don’t even notice it because I stay within my comfortable range of my entertainment budget.
So two points to take away are 1) definitely scout and don’t continue to play at a business that doesn’t seem to value yours and 2) stay mentally tough. 3) Know your food and drink options before you start to play. Have Fun too!
Boris, I think it’s because the 7 is a midcard and throwing that away makes the redraw less valuable. Of course this assumes you don’t tip for the royal if it’s a taxable. If you tip for a taxable royal, you probably never hold KXsuited. What do I win for that answer?
I agree with the other guy…it’s the way it comes off…reasonable minded players know you’re the man…
Hello Liz
I’m afraid you don’t win anything for that answer but I appreciate it anyways. To me it absolutely is impossible to recall this super fine dfference while in play. Bear in mind, both hands have 3suited cards and 2 suited cards. In one hand it says hold K-Jsuited and in the other hand the program says redraw completely. I have no plausible explination for that but just see how difficult videopoker is. Since I don’t play higher than 1 dollar denom the play is worth almost the same so I will probably go by one strategy only in the future.
From Switzerland
Boris
midcards form more straights: 7 can be 34567, 45678, 56789, 6789T, 789TJ
6 on the other hand is not a midcard because 23456 is already counted since the deuce is wild
midcards are 7, 8, and 9
T is not a midcard because it is part of a royal
Liz is correct. The 7 blocks many potential straights.
People have so much trouble following the basic strategy.
You could even tell them beyond a reasonable doubt that this strategy is a correct play and they still be like no I don’t trust it and play incorrectly.
Love your articles and info Bob. I think some colloquialisms/adages sum all of this up. Haters gonna hate. It is true, it’s always better to be lucky than good. That being said, my father (a brilliant man, had a PhD in geology/geophysics) used to say about drilling for oil/gas, ” you don’t have to be as lucky, IF you’re good.”
Does it matter? OK, you have to have intellect and drive to be a winning video poker player. I think most people with sufficient intellect and drive to be a winning video poker player might be better served using that in other avenues that make more money, rather than the thrill of getting one-up on the casinos. OR, better still, using that talent to participate in society in a more meaningful way. You is also a fine writer and provacateur, which I guess works out for you. So I guess you’re special in that you make it work for you. But I have been reading you for 25+ years and while I don’t see the coneit people bring up, I have always noticed a sort-of selfishness in this whole endeavor, particularly considering the talent involved. I try not to pass judgment but it does seem a shame, when we have so many dummies making public policy.