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  • Is It Worth the Risk?

Is It Worth the Risk?

January 19, 2021 15 Comments Written by Bob Dancer

I was playing a $1 9/6 Double Double Bonus game with multiple progressives. The royal was at $5,400 and aces with a kicker (AWAK) was slightly above $2,300. The other two active progressives, which reset at $800, had been hit in the previous half hour and had not yet risen much.

The numbers made the game about 100.1% which I would usually consider a waste of time, but it was by far the best game in the house. The slot club added 0.2%, the meter was rising at 1%, and I needed to play some to keep my mailers coming. Plus, sadly, at the moment I didn’t know of any better game around, so I played.

Assume the above is true. Now let’s look at two separate cases. Each of which involve being dealt A♠ A♥ A♣ A♦ 2♠:

Case 1:  I’m the only one playing the progressive. The progressive is on 12 machines at one bar and I can see the other eleven are unoccupied. The AWAK meter is actually $2,301.99. If I play one more hand, the meter will kick over to $2,302.00. If I play two hands, the meter will reach $2,302.01 and when this casino pays you, it rounds UP to the nearest dollar, meaning I’d get $2,302 before I play two more hands and $2,303 if I wait.

Back to being dealt A♠ A♥ A♣ A♦ 2♠. What do I do? I certainly am going to hold all five cards, but what then? Do I go ahead and hit the draw button, or do I move over to an adjacent machine, play two hands to move the progressive up a dollar, and then play it off?

I would choose to do the latter. For a $10 investment that is essentially even money, I’m getting a $1 bonus. This is a no-brainer to me. Since nobody else is there, nobody else can claim the jackpot while I’m jacking it up.

Case 2:  This time the progressive is at $2,301.95, but now there’s another guy at the bar. I’ll call him Al. Although these are multi-denomination, multi-game machines and from where I’m sitting I can’t see which game Al’s playing, I can tell by the way the meter is rising that he’s pounding the same game as I am. 

Again, I’m dealt AWAK, but Al has no idea that I’ve just been dealt a great hand. My choice is to wait for him to play six hands, so I can collect an extra dollar, or to go ahead and collect the guaranteed smaller hand now. 

The odds for Al hitting AWAK are approximately 14,235 to 1 on each hand. Playing six hands, it’s still a pretty slim chance, but definitely possible. I’m not risking $2,302 by waiting, but rather only $302 because AWAK resets to $2,000.  

What would you do?

If you stop to think about this when it happens, then it will resolve itself. Al will play six or more hands, hit the jackpot or not, and then the situation is moot because then the meter will have crossed over one more dollar and it’s time to cash out.

All players who play games where progressives occur on the non-top jackpot (which lock up and don’t give you this choice), will face this circumstance now and then. You’re probably not going to be dealt AWAK today, but it happens three times as often as a dealt royal and most players who play a lot have had one or more of those.

When this last happened to me, with numbers very similar to what was shown in this article, I hit the draw button immediately. The extra $300 or so dollars for the jackpot made it rare enough that I decided to cash in. Had the jackpot been at $2,003.95, I most certainly would have waited. I’m only risking $4. 

In addition, I might well place a napkin over my jackpot, move to the adjoining machine, and play for an hour or so before I collect on the AWAK. It will keep building and will rise by $8-$10 per hour per player, so it’s growing while it sits there. 

(The $8-$10 per hour figure I used in the last paragraph is for the particular game I was playing. Meter rates vary, as do the percentage of the meter going to each jackpot.)

Plus, hitting a $2,300 AWAK jackpot reduces the ER of the game by about 0.37%. Once it’s hit, the play might be over. Hitting a $2,004 jackpot affects the ER of the game basically not at all. 

Am I being unfair to Al by attempting to build up the jackpot for me only? I don’t think so. It’s a contest between players. While both of us are building jackpots for both of us, a dealt hand offers either player an extra opportunity to exploit, should he or she want to do that. 

I said I would cash out a $300 bonus on the jackpot immediately and wait for a $4 bonus to build before I collected it. Presumably, there must be a point in the middle where I’m indifferent between cashing out now or waiting until later. 

Probably. But I don’t have a specific number in my head. It’s situational and can easily depend on what other opportunities are available. If every seat were full, so I had 11 competitors, I would always cash out immediately.

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15 Comments

  1. Jerry Jerry
    January 19, 2021    

    You also risk a big problem if a power outage occurs before you play the hand. I will immediately hold the jackpot.

  2. LC Larry LC Larry
    January 19, 2021    

    If you’re sweating ONE DOLLAR, it’s time to find a new job!

    Or, if you’re a tipper, just tip one dollar LESS.

  3. Goose Goose
    January 19, 2021    

    A power outage, someone inadvertently (or not) destroying your hand, machine malfunction…..I see the overall concept here but just take the jackpot and move on

  4. Al Al
    January 19, 2021    

    I concur with Jerry and Goose. I thought about the possibility of a power outage even before I read their responses. And as Goose says, there could be other reasons. Let me add: You could have a heart attack or other medical emergency; that might prevent you from being able to hit the Draw button to collect the jackpot, but even if it didn’t and you did hit Draw, you might not be around (I.e., dead or on the way to a hospital) with all that money sitting on your machine’s meter, and someone else might be able to collect the winnings amid the commotion. (Does this machine have TITO?) And I would never move to another machine and just leave the jackpot machine unattended, again because any of these things might happen. I firmly believe in playing it safe. $1 is nowhere near enough of a bonus to warrant taking chances.

  5. victor r shaw victor r shaw
    January 19, 2021    

    Bob, be assured some of your readers still view every dollar they make as an important dollar. I absolutely exploit this every single time.

  6. Boris Radtke Boris Radtke
    January 19, 2021    

    I have not seen a 4-6-9 DDB progressive in a long time. Are machines with such a paytable still available somewhere in Las Vegas? The Tuscany had this game on a quarter dollar denom bank and not so sure if they also cut it down to 4-5-9. International travelers are still not allowed to visit Las Vegas and this may be valid through 2021, at least in the first half. Still, curious to know if there are 1 dollar denom games with such a good paytable available these days…. Thank You all.

  7. Chris Chris
    January 19, 2021    

    > Plus, hitting a $2,300 AWAK jackpot reduces the ER of the game by about 0.37%. Once it’s hit, the play might be over.

    I don’t understand that comment. Once you’re dealt the AWAK, if you play the other machine you are playing a game with the reduced EV, even if you don’t cash out the AWAK right away.

  8. Boris Radtke Boris Radtke
    January 20, 2021    

    No 1: as far as I recall these days, the 2 upper jackpots are usually on auto-hold once they hit on a dealt hand, please correct me if you play older machines that work differently
    No2: On a high progressive it is very rare to see a bank being completely idle. At least 2 of 3 players would be playing, hard to find the very good games with nobody playing, even at graveyard….

  9. Bob Dancer Bob Dancer
    January 20, 2021    

    a power outage is a non-issue to me. IGT machines restore the situation in sufficiently close to 100% of the time that I’m not concerned about it.

    Yes there are more than one $1 9/6 DDB progressive games in Vegas.

    With regards to Chris’ point that the EV was reduced when AWAK was hit, I’m talking about playing a few more hands with a 5% edge. A reduction of 0.37% is a non-factor.

    We regards to Boris’ comment, 2,000-coin jackpots do not autohold and lock up the machine. A player could hold one ace and connect the royal. Not that anyone would, but so long as it’s a possibility, the machine doesn’t lock up.

  10. Mike Alexakis Mike Alexakis
    January 20, 2021    

    Pandemic Las Vegas might give you solo rows of video poker, I can hardly remember it being that empty unless its 5 in the morning… I play DDB virtually every time, so its nice to see that pros play it too, I have never been dealt four aces, and I have never hit four aces with a good kicker. As far as that situation goes, its like choosing between Ginger and Mary Ann, you cant go too wrong either way, although I have always been a Mary Ann guy since I was a little kid…

  11. Boris Boris
    January 21, 2021    

    Hello Bob, thanks for rectifying. I think I got confused with Triple Bonus Poker. I once saw a guy hitting AWAK on a regular machine in the section where there are also 10-16 NSUD games loaded near the exit . That guy hit 4 aces with kicker and the machine locked up right-away. I take it that was because it paid just as much as the Royal Flush would pay?

  12. Boris Radtke Boris Radtke
    January 22, 2021    

    Bob, would you be enclined to disclose more informations where I can find progressive 4-6-9 DDB on the 1 dollar denomination? This would be exactly my game and I am curious where to find such a game… Perhaps at Arizona Charlies Decatur?
    Best regards

    Boris

  13. Boris Radtke Boris Radtke
    January 23, 2021    

    The tipping aspect is always something that’s not officially discussed in the forums and obviously not something people like to talk about loudly. It’s part of the American system and people that work for tips will always have the same stand-point and believe that is is part of the system and will always have to be like that. If you live in Vegas and gamble a lot, then at some point you will find out that your tipping will have a huge impact on your spending, no matter how you see it. If you’re rich anyways, it doesn’t make a difference. A normal gambler should start thinking about it.

  14. Jon Jon
    February 4, 2021    

    Go here: https://www.vpfree2.com/video-poker/double-double-bonus
    add 3 filters: $1, Progressive, and Las Vegas.
    Profit.
    [BTW, vpfree2 supplies the video poker listing to LVA]

  15. Michael Michael
    September 6, 2021    

    As the saying goes, “A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.” I would cash it immediiately. I once hit a dealt royal at the Westward Ho. The machine was going crazy, handing me repeated quads, boats, and flushes; then, it turned red with a royal in hearts, and I held no cards, because I couldn’t. The machine automatically held all 5 cards. It locked up and they had to handpay the jackpot.

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