Is This Fair?

The specifics of the following are fiction. But similar situations have happened numerous times.

Let’s say there’s a drawing at a casino, with about 50,000 tickets in the barrel. I’ve hammered away at a $25 machine for 15 hours and have 800 tickets myself, resulting from $800,000 coin-in. A lady in green, on the other hand, is a quarter player who played four hours and has 3 tickets. We both show up, hoping to win the $25,000 prize.

At this casino, they use a two-part ticket system where you tear your ticket in half and put one half in the barrel and keep one half. We happen to be standing near each other waiting for the drawing to start. She notices my small bag full of tickets, sorted and rubber-banded.

“This is not fair,” she tells me.

Why? What’s not fair about it?

“You have more tickets than me.”

True. But that’s allowed by the rules. Why do you say it’s unfair?

“I didn’t realize someone could earn that many tickets.”

Why not? You earn one ticket for every 1,000 points. Didn’t you read the rules?

“Well, no. Plus, I can’t afford to play big machines.”

I understand. Most people can’t. It’s one reason I’m here.

“It’s still unfair.”

How much do you think your chances are worth?

“I don’t know. I didn’t figure it out. I’m not good at math. But winning $25,000 would be nice.”

No argument there. That’s why I’m here. But if there are 50,000 tickets and they’re giving away $25,000, each ticket is worth 50¢ on average. Your position right now is worth a buck and a half. Why are you even here?

“Well, it only takes one ticket to win.”

True. But you spent 50¢ worth of gas to get here, one hour of your time, and have to deal with a crowd. For an expected value of $1.50, which turns into zero 99.994% of the time. This can’t be the best use of your time.

“As I said. It’s not fair that you have so many tickets.”

I decide to go stand somewhere else because obviously this conversation isn’t going anywhere. I’d given her useful information, but she merely wanted to complain because I had more tickets than she. There are a lot of situations in a casino where players are pitted against each other. Intelligent gamesmanship means that you have to pick your spots.

I have a sizeable bankroll, considerable how-to-play knowledge, and the ability and willingness to play long hours when I think there’s a good deal. If I’m going to enter a promotion, I’m going to find one where those attributes pay dividends. At one casino recently, they had a promotion where every machine being played had an equal chance of winning. This had zero attraction to me. Why do I want to be in a situation where a penny player has as good a chance to win as I do? But if I were a nickel player, both of these might be good deals. Nothing wrong with these promotions for the right player. Nothing right with them for me.

Choosing your spot isn’t talked about a lot by gaming writers, but it’s very important. To analyze your situation, you have to get away from such useless “it only takes one ticket to win” bromides and instead ask the questions: What are my realistic chances to win? (i.e. however many tickets you have divided by how many tickets are in the barrel — estimated as closely as you can) How much is this worth? (i.e. realistic chance times money given away) Is this worth my time to be here? (this depends on what other opportunities you have and how much your day is disrupted by going to the drawing),

These are not particularly complicated questions to figure out, and it provides more useful information than the silly advice “always enter every drawing you can. It costs you nothing to do so and you might win” that some authors recommend. I think showing up at a drawing takes a considerable investment in time and prevents you from being somewhere else. This is hardly costing you nothing.

Finally, this lady was complaining because I had more than her. Many people like to complain. When they have less than average, they complain that everyone should get the same. When they have more than average, they believe people should be able to keep what they have.

If there become enough people complaining that what I’m doing isn’t fair, a casino ;might well take steps I won’t like to eliminate the source of the complaining. Therefore, it pays to be a little discreet in how many tickets you let others see that you have and how often you win. Flaunting your stack of tickets can have a big penalty.