Listeners to Gambling with an Edge may remember a guest named Sammy Katz, who is an advantage video poker from the Midwest. I got an interesting email from him, reading in part: “A local casino I play at in the Midwest is doing their drawing promotions in a new way. You earn 1 entry for every 250 points earned ($4=1 point). However, at certain times, you can BUY entries for all of the drawings that month at a rate of 100 points per entry (including points you have saved up). 200 points are worth $1 in free slot play otherwise. Is this somewhat common now for drawings? I am tempted to figure out whether it would be worth it for me to buy additional entries, but philosophically I am opposed to it, as if everyone did it, it would just be an arms race that only benefited the casino. It seems unfair that the casino is letting one person sell their points for something that costs the casino nothing, but essentially gets its value from devaluating my entries. Any thoughts on what you would do?”
I have a lot of thoughts on this. First of all, let’s address the fact that Sammy is philosophically opposed to the selling of tickets. He can complain, write a letter to the marketing department/GM/newspaper/etc., or perhaps lead a boycott of the casino. These things sometimes work, but that’s a different discussion than the one I want to have right now. Let’s assume that this type of promotion is a fait accompli and nothing we can do will change it. Now what?
The two relevant questions are: Does this question change whether this casino is a desirable place to play? And, does it make sense to buy tickets that cost 50¢ apiece?
Sammy didn’t tell me what games they have at this casino. It sounds like it takes $800 in coin-in to earn $1 in free play — and that equates to 0.125%. They possibly have multiple point days and other promotions, including possibly mailers. I don’t have this information, but Sammy is competent to evaluate whether overall this amounts to a worthwhile play — at least before the ticket-selling promotion.
If in the past it would be reasonable to estimate the drawings as being worth, say, 0.4%, this new promotion will dilute their value. Perhaps to 0.3%. Perhaps to 0.2%. Perhaps to 0.1% or less. How much of a dilution depends on whether the folks with lots of stored up points choose to buy drawing tickets. This isn’t so much a case of “how many people” buy drawing tickets, but rather “how many tickets” are bought. This is not the same thing.
The previous paragraph presumes the casino doesn’t change the size of its drawings. It was previously giving away, say, $20,000 a month and it still is. If the casino chooses to give away twice a month instead now that it is reducing its cash back exposure (doubtful — but possible), then it’s theoretical possible that the drawing tickets remain as valuable as ever.
The best way over time to figure out how much drawings are worth is to take samples. You play a fixed amount (say $100,000 a month), enter the drawings, and see how you do. You compare notes with other players and come up with some sort of estimate.
With the new rules for drawings in place, your former estimates are no longer as useful. You can make a “best guess” and try to determine whether it makes sense to buy tickets. It’s not entirely scientific. But at a minimum you need to keep track of how many tickets you have and how you do in the drawings. Also, you need to stop redeeming cash back for a while (thereby accumulating currency to buy tickets) in case you later determine that it’s a smart play to buy tickets.
The nearest Las Vegas equivalent to this that I participate in is at the Gold Coast. Their highest point days (5x, 7x, or once-a-century 11x) are generally accompanied by single drawing tickets. Once or twice a week they have a “regular point day” (which means 1x, 2x, or 3x depending on your tier level) accompanied by 10x drawing tickets.
This is very much a case where you are paying actual cash (in the form of fewer redeemable-for-cash points) for extra drawing tickets. At the current conversion rate, at the Gold Coast I think it’s better to play on the days that give you more drawing tickets — assuming you’re planning on attending the drawings. I will not be attending the drawings in November and December there because I won $5,250 in a “Pumpkin Patch Pick” drawing there in early October. Since I believe that is a casino that doesn’t want the same winners week after week, I won’t try for the drawings there until January at the earliest. So I’ll be playing mostly on big point multiplier days in November and December rather than big ticket multiplier days. Had I won a “small” prize (perhaps $500 or less) I would only have stayed away from the drawings for a month or so. But winning a “large” prize is different. Similarly, if I were very low profile there I wouldn’t feel the need to stay away from the drawings for three months. But I’m not. And I do.
(At least one month in the past, Gold Coast offered a 5x point multiplier and a 10x ticket multiplier on the same day of the week. This seems like a no-brainer to play on those days if you can arrange it in your schedule. The bottom line is that a LOT of people play a LOT on these days and it requires more tickets to win the drawings those months than it does on the months when they don’t have such a combination.)
In the email from Sammy, he said he thought it was unfair of the casino to dilute the value of his tickets. Although many will share his point of view, I do not think it is unfair. The casino is only changing the value of FUTURE play, not the value of PAST play. To me this is not different conceptually from a casino cutting the value of points in half. Or reducing a pay schedule. Or instituting some sort of “once-per-customer-per-month” rule on something where we used to be able to get more.
I don’t like it when casinos do this. To me it’s a type of “pay cut” and nobody likes those. But I don’t believe the casino is acting unfairly. The casinos have a right to make any rules they like (subject to certain legal and Gaming Control limits) and the players need to adjust to the rule or quit playing. We always have the right to not play there any more if we don’t like a rule change of any sort.
Staying away from a casino in Las Vegas because we don’t like a rule change still leaves us with several dozen other nearby casinos. For people in certain other parts of the country it’s a bigger deal. There might be one casino 10 minutes away and one more 30 minutes away. Losing the closer one is a big hit.
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