Our guests this week are professional sports bettors, Captain Jack Andrews, and Rufus Peabody. This is part 2 of our discussion on their new site unabated.com. This is a site with tools to help sports bettors trying to get an edge. No touts, no affiliate ads, just good information and tools for players trying to find an edge.
Show Notes
[00:00] Introduction of Captain Jack Andrews and Rufus Peabody from Unabated.com
[00:53] Rufus’ experience with advantage players from Appalachian State, as described on a recent Risk of Ruin podcast
[06:29] Rufus’ Cantor Gaming interview
[08:15] How should players attack new markets?
[14:47] Does Arizona have any independent sportsbooks?
[16:31] Sports betting in California
[21:35] How is NFL betting different in 2021?
[23:09] How does a quarterback’s vaccination status affect bets and futures?
[27:08] Has Unabated received any blowback from bettors who resent others releasing information?
[29:47] Have people used Madden to simulate NFL games?
[31:32] How can casual sports bettors use Unabated.com‘s tools to get EV?
[37:39] South Point Casino September Promotions – City Lights Shine giveaway, Hot Seat promotions, South Point 400 tickets
[38:25] BlackjackApprenticeship.com – card counting training website and community with many betting, tracking, and analytical tools
[38:57] VideoPoker.com/gwae – Gold Membership offers correction on most games, free Pro Membership trial for GWAE listeners
[40:44] Unabated.com’s target audience
[43:39] Will Captain Jack’s Youtube content remain on Youtube?
[44:58] Definition of Unabated
[48:53] The data science behind Unabated
[50:06] When will Las Vegas improve mobile sports betting?
[52:07] Is William Hill taking action now?
[54:27] Recommended: Our Town on Kanopy, Sidedoor podcast
Sponsored Links:
SouthPointCasino.com
BlackjackApprenticeship.com
VideoPoker.com/gwae
Books Referenced:
Sharper: A Guide to Modern Sports Betting by True Pokerjoe https://amzn.to/2XXjCN8
Recommended:
Kanopy.com/product/our-town
Si.edu/sidedoor
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To say Cam Newton would have been back quicker with the team had he gotten vaccinated doesn’t seem entirely true. It seems like Cam Newton was purged from his job as quarterback due to potential false-positive readings on the PCR test, in which missing practice was the protocol set by the league as it is for many jobs right now. Cam is a young man and I’m sure he’s doing just fine with his millions in his bank account.
Can the simulator account for missed penalty calls by the refs or when the league office in NY has to make a ruling on a live game because the refs have lost the ability to call the game?
I’ve heard of people using the video game Madden to simulate game outcomes but it seems that simulators cannot account for players partying. Like getting smashed drunk before a game, using drugs, or late night partying with women before a game.
Rufus, did you ever get the free bet down in VA? I’d like to sign up there as well. You can PM me if need be. I believe I live near you and I’ll be headed to LV soon. Let me know if there’s anything I can do for you.
This was a good podcast but the discussion about risk free bets was a little off.
The first minor point that one should always make is that the “risk free” bet terminology is false advertising. These are good promos worth money but they aren’t risk free bets. If you lose twice, you lose your initial deposit. If you bet on coin flips, then a loss followed by a win still loses a little money. This is clear from the article the guests mentioned but not from the way they talked about the promos.
The second more important point is that these bets are worth far less than intuition would suggest. At one point the guests suggested that people were doing 8 5k “risk free” bets and would make something like 50k. If you bet on coin flips, a 5k “free bet” promo is worth less than 1k. If you bet on long shot stuff you can get that number up but its hard to get anywhere close to 5k from a 5k promo. Even then, would a book let you bet 5k on some 10 to 1 shot.
Gator,
I was going to post pretty much what you did. Let’s look at an example:
I have a $1000 ‘risk free’ offer from sportsbook X. So , I bet $1000 at -110 on a football game. For the sake of argument, let’s say the point spread is fair and it is a 50/50 proposition. So, 50% of the time I win $909 and life is good. For the 50% of the time I lose, I am down $1000 but have a $1000 free bet. From this occurrence, I make another football bet at -100 and again, it is a true coin flip. When I win the freebet, I get $909 for an overall loss of $91. If I lose the freebet, I am out the entire $1000 bankroll.
So, 50% of the time I win $909. 25% of the time I lose $91. 25% of the time I lose $1000. Overall expected value is (2 * $909 – $91 – $1000)/4 or $204.50.
Now, betting with a 20% edge is a great thing but it is far from a risk free bet. I’d say the risk free bet is actually worth about 1/5th of the listed value.
Jimmy, this probably supports what you and Gator both stated. The guests’ calculations suggest maximizing the free bets which requires betting long shots, not favorites. I did what you pointed out on my 1st offers and bet two favorites; won one in OT and lost one where the QB made rookie mistakes. This was very nearly two losses. The 2nd game should’ve been closer. However, these were both Win or Lose bonus offers, so betting favorites made sense. Now that I’m left with one bonus, I’ll bite the bullet and bet long. There are also ways to bet both sides on some of these; but that will not maximize the potential and may or may not maximize the ev. So, this paragraph is 100% of my sports betting experience and knowledge, lol, but it’s accurate about betting long, in general, not favorites to get not-so-Free Bet bonuses.