We welcome your questions – send them to us at [email protected], or you can find me at @RWM21 on Twitter.
podcast
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Show Notes
[00:00] Introduction of Flip Pidot from political prediction market Predictit.org
[00:48] How does Predictit.org work?
[04:13] Why are Predictit.org’s markets only politically focused?
[06:10] Examples of some of the unique contracts that are currently being offered
[08:56] Illustration of fees
[11:12] Position limits,active trader limits, and volume discussion
[17:40] Withdraw rules and fees
[18:39] Deposit match at Predictit.org/promo/edge
[21:40] South Point Casino October Promotions – Free Play with a Kicker, free video poker classes
[24:36] VideoPoker.com – Gold membership offers correction on most games
[26:13] Predictit’s newsletter offerings, comments section
[30:51] Are there professional traders on Predictit.org?
[35:45] Are bots trading the markets?
[36:31] Where is the smart money going?
[38:42] Correlated markets
[41:09] Are prediction markets more accurate than polls?
[44:01] Predictit.org’s data, research partnerships
[46:11] Will there be a market for election interference?
[49:06] Recommended – Shang Artisan Noodle, The Oakey Family Supper Club
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I have traded real futures for a while. I like the premise of expanding to politics and other things, but the high fees and low limits make this exchange not very attractive for any serious bettor/trader. Ten percent fees and a $850 limit really mean this is kind of a play money exchange . The CFTC obviously will not let them go any higher. The University of Iowa has an exchange also I think with $500 limits and small fees. It is a shame because the low limits and high fees make these kind of junk for predictions. A real futures contract costs about $5-6 per trade in fees and a few thousand in margin to control at least 20-50k in notional value.
Sorry about the previous post coming across as super negative. I think that GWAE listeners would enjoy trading on Predictit.
I think PredictIt is an interesting site, and I plan on signing up with a few dollars (through the link of course). The great thing about markets are, they dont care about opinions or policy. It’s a great way to see what people really think, when they back it up with cash
I agree with bw about predict being a vehicle for large play, but there is free money to be had due to the limits. If you can find a linked market (at least one exists right now) whose total “no” contracts equal 110 or more you can get free money. This opportunity only exists because of the position limits as sharps would have knocked them down ages ago if no limits. Look at the prep and dem no markets and just buy no on everything.
Donald Trump is going to win the 2020 general election in a landslide victory! It’s not even going to be close. The Democrats better run Hillary Clinton again if they even want the slightest chance at winning the Oval office. Socialist/Communist Bernie Sanders will lose and peter puffing Pete Buttigieg doesn’t stand a chance! Mike Bloomberg who seems like the dark horse will more than likely fail in his attempt to purchase a presidency with Obama now pitching for him. His “stop & frisk” policy that he enacted in NYC will STOP his road to the presidency in it’s tracks.