Our guest this week is Jason Pipkin. Jason is a neuroscientist who gambles semi-professionally on elections at predictit.org.
We welcome your questions – send them to us at [email protected], or you can find me at @RWM21 on Twitter or https://www.facebook.com/GamblingWithAnEdge.
podcast
Click to listen – Alt click to download
Show Notes
[00:00] Introduction of Jason Pipkin, frequent bettor at Predictit.org
[00:58] How did Jason get started on Predictit.org?
[02:48] Jason’s background and predictingpolitics.com
[04:30] Commissions and contract limits
[10:26] Biden and Trump double max contract example
[12:35] Liquidity and market efficiency
[14:35] Can personal political biases affect profitability?
[16:04] Arbitrage
[17:38] Trading frequency
[18:45] Volatility
[20:16] Holding periods and exit strategy
[21:28] Black swan betting
[23:08] 2016 Presidential election market strategies
[24:42] FiveThirtyEight.com
[25:48] Computer analysis and modeling
[26:59] Predictit.org market forums
[28:40] What percentage of bettors in political markets are profitable?
[31:24] Straddles
[32:47] Determinants of volatility
[36:12] Foreign elections
[38:30] South Point Casino September Promotions – $500,000 Guaranteed Money Madness
[39:22] Predictit.org/promo/edge – place small bets on various political events
[39:55] BlackjackApprenticeship.com – card counting training site and community
[40:25] VideoPoker.com/gwae – Gold Membership offers corrections on most games
[41:47] Market suggestions
[43:20] Similarities to options trading
[45:24] Holding contracts until expiry
[48:39] How can listeners contact Jason?
[49:10] Discussing gambling in personal relationships
[50:28] Recommended – MyNoise.net
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I made the mistake at Orleans of asking for an extra night on my free 3 night stay. I do play well. I was lucky and got five jackpots on vpoker machines by the buffet. They said I played well and knew every penny I spent on every machine. They gave me the free night but never got anything other than the mailer in the future. They would not even comp resort fees as they normally do. Don’t know you a tracked but you are flagged. I should not have asked for free room on winning streak. Guess I got too greedy. Never ask for a comp during a winning streak.