Our guest this week is Jack Allweil. Jack wrote a book called “Make Better Bets: An Actuary’s Quest to Bet the Russian 2018 FIFA World Cup with Excel.” We talk to Jack about his book, and his experience betting the last World Cup.
We welcome your questions – send them to us at [email protected], or you can find me at @RWM21 on Twitter or https://www.facebook.com/GamblingWithAnEdge.
Show Notes
[00:00] introduction Jack Allweil, author of Make Better Bets
[00:35] Betting on soccer
[03:04] Using a model with few variables
[05:31] Time spent on the model, benefits of a passion project
[07:14] How much data from 2018 will be relevant in 2022?
[09:22] Other potential variables, like country popularity skewing lines, VAR reviews
[11:16] Getting bets down
[12:50] Analyzing the 2018 results
[15:03] Betting on all four teams in a group
[18:08] Line shopping
[20:33] Relocating to bet more easily
[21:58] How did losing a job change Jack’s life?
[24:20] Jack’s wife, Elena
[25:52] Betting other soccer leagues
[27:03] What’s the next big thing that Jack will be betting on?
[28:38] South Point Casino January Promotion – $500k Spin to Win
[31:12] http://BlackjackApprenticeship.com – card counting training site and advantage play community with software and tracking tools
[31:45] http://VideoPoker.com/gwae – Gold Membership offers correction on most games, free Pro Membership trial for GWAE listeners
[32:58] Choosing the name Make Better Bets
[34:59] Kelly criteria
[37:26] Betting as a married man
[39:33] Brothers on Books podcast
[40:53] Contacting Jack
[41:47] Recommended: Cryptonomicon by Neal Stephenson, Libby app for libraries, Wall Street Bets by Jaime Rogozinski
Sponsored Links:
Books Referenced:
Make Better Bets by Jack Allweil https://amzn.to/3Ahb56M
Guest Links:
Recommended:
Cryptonomicon by Neal Stephenson https://amzn.to/33uaId7
Wall Street Bets by Jaime Rogozinski https://amzn.to/3qNVckM
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A listener question for RWM about rat holing while card counting. When I was a ploppy playing blackjack, if I was winning I often put green and red chips in my pockets, as both a money management strategy and a security blanket. I never thought anything was wrong with this, and I never detected any concern by the pit. It seemed like a totally natural thing to do. I would do this in plain view of everybody. Now I’ve learned to count cards and I’ve read several threads about rat holing chips which has made me really paranoid about doing something that once seemed natural. What do you think of rat holing in plain view, like I did as an innocent ploppy?