I just finished a two-part analysis of Maria Konnikova’s The Confidence Game where one of her warnings was (paraphrased) “If something looks too good to be true, it probably is. Very likely there’s something fishy going on.” Soon thereafter, a friend, “Sam,” who’s a knowledgeable video poker player, sent me the following pay schedule on […]
Posts tagged Bob Dancer
A Look at The Confidence Game – Part 2 of 2
Two weeks ago, I explained why I found Maria Konnikova’s book, The Confidence Game: Why We Fall for It . . . Every Time, worthy of study. Today I’m going to pick and choose among some of the parts of the book. Konnikova has a Ph.D. in psychology and is a writer for The New […]
What Are Reasonable Expectations from Attending...
Author’s note: Last week I began a “Part 1 of 2” series about Maria Konnikova’s book The Confidence Game. It is a reasonable expectation on your part that Part 2 would appear today. It’s better for today’s article to appear one week before the classes begin rather than the day of. The review of the […]
A Look at The Confidence Game – Part 1 of 2
For our May 31 Gambling with an Edge podcast, we interviewed Maria Konnikova, a journalist with a Ph.D. in psychology who worked with Eric Seidel to become more knowledgeable about poker and ended up winning several tournaments. Maria impressed both Richard Munchkin and me. Preparing for the interview, I learned that one of Konnikova’s books, […]
Lessons from Backgammon, Part 2 of 2
(Editor’s Note) We’ve just discovered that, due to a technical glitch, last-week’s Bob Dancer blog wasn’t posted. We’re putting it up now and will resume the usual schedule this week. Last week, I began a two-part article where I described important gambling lessons that I learned years ago while playing backgammon and that are still […]
Lessons from Backgammon, Part 1 of 2
From 1974 through 1980, I averaged 80-100 hours per week playing or studying backgammon. For the next 12 years, I had a job (because I lost my bankroll playing backgammon) and reduced my backgammon time to an average of about 15 hours per week. In 1994, I began playing video poker and haven’t played significant […]
Which is Better?
Back when I was in graduate school studying economics, professors would often compare Model A versus Model B, where the two models were identical except for one specific difference. The professor then addressed a situation where the two models would yield different results, and so we learned what feature of the models led to what […]
Can You Do Everything Correctly in Video Poker ...
The “system” I promote for winning at video poker has two main steps to it: Only play when you have the advantage over the house. This includes the base return on the game, the slot club, promotions, mailers, drawing entries, and possibly other things. Play for small enough stakes that your bankroll isn’t overly endangered. […]
Is It Even Possible to Play Perfectly?
In a recent comment posted on www.gamblingwithanedge.com about my March 27 “He Screwed Me!” column, Liz wrote, in part, “And, mathematically speaking, we can never be 100% sure that even Dancer always has the edge. I’m willing to believe he knows all the maxEV strategies cold including penalty cards, but that’s not the same thing […]
Do APs Cheat?
Internet forums, by their nature, are filled with disparate opinions. Recently, another blogger in the LVA stable wrote a comment in response to a blog I posted in late March. He disagreed with me. And, as you’ll see, I disagree with his disagreement. The distinction you’re missing is that advantage play almost never violates the casino’s rules, […]
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