I just passed the 10-year anniversary of my six-month-long million dollar net profit run. I wrote a book about it (Million Dollar Video Poker), and it’s still prominently mentioned on my website. Whenever I’m interviewed by somebody, I’m called the guy who won a million bucks. While that particular six months is clearly part of my public identity, someone recently asked me how much that success proved I’m an expert worth listening to.
My answer was that particular million dollars is totally irrelevant insofar as whether or not I’m an expert. If I had lost $250,000 that year instead of winning, my knowledge level at the end of that year would still have been the same. I needed a certain amount of expertise and bankroll to recognize the opportunity for what it was — and a certain level of discipline to play the game accurately for hour after hour after hour — but the results themselves proved nothing other than the video poker gods were smiling on me during that specific period. Casinos were offering super juicy promotions. I hit sizeable jackpots at a much higher-than-average rate. These things didn’t happen because I was smarter than everybody else. I was a strong player, but much of it resulted from being in the right place at the right time. The fact that it turned out to be a million instead of a half-million or two million or the fact that it lasted six months instead of four or eight, are merely ways to describe that period after the fact. While I was going through it, I had no idea how long it would last or what the final score would be.
So if winning the money is irrelevant, how come I keep mentioning it?
The answer is that other people often are subject to the post hoc ergo propter hoc type of fallacious thinking — or “after this therefore because of this.” There are people who believe that if I have good results it must be because I was smart and made good decisions. If I had bad results, it must have been because of bad decisions. (Witness the criticism I received generated by my January 25 article where I argued that it was a great play to play for the LandRover at the M. Dozens of people countered that since I ended up losing more than the car was worth, it was a really stupid play or I was a terrible player. People with a clue about successful gambling know that you need to look at the parameters of a play BEFORE you see the results — and the actual results for one particular play are largely irrelevant.)
If other people are going to credit me with expertise because of my million dollar success, then I’m going to take advantage of that in my marketing. But on a personal level, I don’t consider that a particularly noteworthy accomplishment.
If you are on a good play, sometimes you’ll win and sometimes you’ll lose. If you’re on a bad play, sometimes you’ll win and sometimes you’ll lose. But making good choices again and again and again will lead to positive results over time.
If whether or not I won or lost in 2001 isn’t important to whether or not I’m an expert, what is important? I think the following items are in the mix somewhere, although I don’t have a ranking of which is most important. And it wouldn’t surprise that I’m leaving out a few important items from this list that I would gladly include if you brought them to my attention.
How many games do you know at the 99.9+% level (preferably much higher)? How many games can you actually play at that level? (The difference between these two is one is about knowledge and one is about execution in a casino environment. They are correlated, but not identical.)
How many casinos are there where you know the best games in the stakes you play? Casinos you’ve scouted within the past 6 months count double the ones you haven’t scouted. Casinos change over time and your knowledge of their inventory deteriorates.
Can you explain the fine points of a strategy to somebody else? I have a strong belief that if you can’t teach somebody else, you don’t really know something. This drive to become more knowledgeable has been a major factor in my choosing to teach and write.
When new promotions come out, are you able to figure out how to take advantage of them?
When new games come out, are you able to analyze them to determine whether or not you have an advantage? If a game is too complicated to figure out with existing tools, do you have the programming skills or the contacts to others with programming skills in order to get the information you need?
Are you connected with other experts? Nobody knows everything, and useful information is often obtained from others. Everything else being equal, the expert who lets his knowledge and assumptions be challenged by others is likely to be sharper than someone who doesn’t do this.
Do others seek out your advice?
Are you able to keep your welcome at casinos? (I’ve definitely had problems in this area and wish I could play more places.) It doesn’t do you a lot of good to be an expert who isn’t allowed to play at a reasonable number of places. And part of this is re-establishing yourself after you’ve been kicked out. This type of negotiating skill might fairly be considered gambling expertise.
Are you able to obtain and hang on to a bankroll? This is not trivial. There are a number of people without money skills who are always broke. And this has little to do with how much money they make. If you only make $30,000 a year, it’s easy to say (and believe) that you’d have it made if you could only make $60,000 a year. But many people who make “only” $60,000 a year are broke and in severe credit card debt. Same thing is true with people who make $100,000 a year, or $250,000 a year, or any other figure you mention.
Do you only play when you are at or near your best? However much expertise you have when you are rested, sober, and drug-free, that expertise level isn’t nearly the same if you gamble when you’re exhausted and/or under-the-influence. I’m fortunate that alcohol, cigarettes, and recreational drugs aren’t tempting to me at all. This allows me to keep my bankroll (e.g. these things can be very expensive) and also to be “at my best” a much higher proportion of the time than many others are.
Can you list 10 things that you know today about video poker that you didn’t know two months ago? Expertise isn’t a mountain that you can climb and be at the top forever. It’s one where you must continue to study and scout and work at it. Those of you who aren’t continuing to do these things aren’t standing still. You’re going backwards and are being passed up.
Raw IQ and education aren’t absolutely necessary, but those with these assets can do more with the same amount of drive than those not so blessed. The math skills required to work out video poker promotions aren’t particularly daunting. But if you haven’t picked them up somewhere along the way, or you can’t apply them to the new promotions that come around, you’re not a video poker expert.
This list is long enough for now. Maybe I’ll add to it later. But the key element in this article is that expertise is largely not about money. But if you become expert and regularly apply what you know, and have enough outside money to live on, your bankroll will inexorably grow larger. If you are forced to dip into your gambling bankroll for living (or perhaps emergency) expenses, it’s very possible to be both an expert and bankrupt.
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