Let’s say you decide to go out and play video poker for three hours later today. What should be your focus? I’ve asked this question to many players and the most common answer is that they are focused on winning. In my opinion, that’s 100% the wrong answer. Winning should be far down the list of things to focus on.
First of all, what is your goal in playing today? One goal for me is to increase my bankroll. Another might be to earn enough points so that I qualify for monthly mailers. A third one might be to earn tickets for this weekend’s drawing. A fourth one might be to attain Seven Stars status. You can bet that the game plus whatever reward I see myself earning exceeds 100%. Playing at a disadvantage will never be one of my goals.
As I write this I’m on the Norwegian Epic, cruising the Western Caribbean. The best game on board is 9-6-5 Double Bonus (97.81% when played appropriately). They have a slot club that returns a small amount, and if you play enough they give you another cruise “for free.” A “for free” cruise is largely worthless to me as I regularly qualify for two or three weeks of cruises a year anyway through various casinos. Although Shirley would like more cruises, two weeks a year is already pressing my tolerance level. Any more than that she goes with a girl friend and I stay home.
A surprising number of people are gambling in the casino on this ship. Their goal appears to be, “We’re bored and there’s nothing else to do.” Okay for them — and for the owners of the ship — but not for me. I’d much rather read a book, go to the gym, or go dancing with Shirley than to play “just for fun.”
Almost always my goal for playing today includes the casino. For example, I’m playing because South Point has 2x points, or because Silverton has a senior day promotion, or because the Palms is offering Visa gift cards for play, or I’m RFB at Harrah’s Lake Tahoe and I need to play a certain amount to keep these offers coming.
But even if I know the casino to play at, there’s still a choice of games. Which game should I play today? It’s usually not as simple as “find the highest returning game in the casino.” At the Palms, for example, the game with the highest return percentage-wise is Full Pay Deuces Wild progressive (100.76%, plus the progressive), but that game is limited to quarters and players are who play it are highly restricted. At the speed I play, that’s worth about $10 an hour. No thanks! (I’m not sneering at the game or those who play it. It’s the best game in town for a large number of players. But those with knowledge and bankroll can earn significantly more per hour playing other games.) 9/6 Jacks or Better (99.54%) is often the highest returning game that is also eligible for promotions, but that game is limited to 25¢ Ten Play or $2 single line — or less. If you want to play higher stakes, 25¢ 8/5 Bonus Poker Hundred Play (99.17%) is the best — and promotions sometimes make that the highest returning game on a dollars-per-hour basis. Other casinos have similar choices to take into consideration.
Once I’ve chosen the game to play, I need to assess whether I know it at the 99.99% (or, preferably, higher) accuracy level? I know about 10 games at this level and five or so more at the 99.9+% level, but there are dozens of possibly-playable games in casinos I don’t know nearly so well. If one of these other games is my target for the day, I’ll need to spend an hour or so studying and practicing before I go out to play. (One reason I have a laptop with Video Poker for Winners along on the cruise is “in case” there is a playable game in the casino. There’s always a (slim) chance that a progressive is high enough to make playing an intelligent decision. But, as expected, that was not to be this time.)
Now I know what casino and game to play, by focus is on playing every hand as computer-perfect as possible. If I play 5,000 hands today then my goal is to play all 5,000 hands perfectly. Winning and losing will take care of itself. If I consistently play accurately on games where I have the edge, I’ll come out ahead. It’s essentially inevitable, assuming I’m playing well within my bankroll. (I rarely play large enough that my bankroll is threatened in the slightest. The games for high stakes that I know about and where I’m welcome to play are simply not that lucrative.)
A few weeks ago I wrote here about a point challenge at the M Resort where I lost about $70,000 earning a car that I eventually sold for $46,000 (taxable). Players who focus on the goal of winning come to the conclusion that, “That’s was a VERY expensive car. Only a fool would put himself in that position! And that guy calls himself an expert!” Players who focus on playing with an edge come to the conclusion more along the lines of, “Dancer had a large edge there. He was wise to go for it. Too bad it didn’t work out this time.”
Make no mistake about it. I definitely want to win. I work very hard to put myself in position to win. But my focus is always on doing the little (and big) things correctly so that I continue to be in that position. My actual score (i.e. whether I win or not this particular time) isn’t very important. But in the long run, my bankroll inexorably continues to increase. Which, in the end, is one of my primary goals.
Never miss another post