Which Game to Play?

I’ve mentioned many times that on 2x point days at the South Point, I play 9/6 Double Double Bonus Quick Quads. This is a game that returns 99.65% when played well, and 2x points are worth 0.60%, so that gives me a 0.25% edge — plus a small amount for mailers. I play this game for dollar Ten Play where each bet is $60 because it’s a six-coins-per-line game.

I now know the strategy for 9/6 Double Double Bonus Ten Play Ultimate X, which is available at the South Point in quarters (each bet is $25 because it’s a 10-coins-per-line game), and the simplified strategy I use returns about 99.80%. (I’ll be teaching this strategy beginning at noon on Tuesday, February 26 in the showroom at the South Point). On 2x point days, Ultimate X returns 100.40%. I was asked whether I was going to switch the game I would be playing since the Ultimate X game returns 0.15% more than the Quick Quads game.

The return on the game is only one of the factors you will use in determining which game to play. It should be a major factor for games of the same denomination. But for games of different denominations, you need to consider how many dollars per hour you can get through the machines.

At Quick Quads, I average about $30,000 coin-in per hour through the machines. With a 0.25% advantage, this yields an expected return of $75 per hour — with big swings. At Ultimate X, I can get about $12,000 coin-in per hour. With a 0.40% advantage, the expectation is $48 per hour — with bigger swings. While this is certainly a good deal, if the $75 per hour game is available, that’s the one I’m playing.

In reality, I’ll come prepared to play both games. If Quick Quads is available, that’s the game I’ll play. If not, I’ll check Ultimate X. If neither is available, I might play $2 single line NSU (about $30 per hour) or I might leave and play somewhere else, depending on what else is available that day.

The actual stakes I’m debating here may be higher than what you’re comfortable playing. But the principle discussed holds for many players. If you’re trying to compare games with different stakes, you need to consider how many dollars per hour you can play in order to determine your edge. And you then need to multiply that by whatever your advantage is. The math to figure this out isn’t tough. Winning players learn how to do it.

How do you learn what the coin-in per hour is? Simple. You measure it. Most slot clubs will provide you with your coin-in. If you’ve earned 34,125 points at one point per dollar coin-in, then that means you’ve played $34,125. If it’s one point per two dollars coin-in or some other multiple, the conversion is slightly more involved — but still simple to calculate. You keep track of how long you had to play to earn those points. Dividing the first by the second gives you coin-in per hour.

There are not tools currently available to analyze the accuracy of your play at either Quick Quads or Ultimate X. There are tools, however, to analyze this on the more common games. The Video Poker for Winners software is a good way to determine how close to perfect your play is. Set the ‘Level of Difficulty’ to “mixed.” Go to ANALYZE →OVERALL PLAY and reset to zero.

Now play 200 or more hands. Then go to ANALYZE →OVERALL PLAY →RETURN and look at the figure called RETURN %. That number gives you your effective accuracy rate. Small errors cost you very little. Major errors cost you a lot.

Let’s say the Return % you come up with for NSU is 98%. Now instead of figuring the return on the game at 99.73%, you should figure it at 99.73% * 0.98 = 97.74%. That is the effective return on the game for you. If that’s the best you can play, you should resign yourself to losing or choose another game to play. Even double points don’t come close to making this a positive game for you.

Notice that the decision is based solely on the theoretical hourly return from the game. You will NEVER hear me saying something like “I’m losing at Quick Quads today so I’m going to go try Ultimate X where my luck might be better.” That kind of talk is for players without a clue. If you ever find yourself thinking like that, you should consider taking my “Secrets” class, which will next be taught on April 9.