{"id":107383,"date":"2019-02-26T09:33:41","date_gmt":"2019-02-26T17:33:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/?p=107383"},"modified":"2019-02-26T09:33:41","modified_gmt":"2019-02-26T17:33:41","slug":"a-question-from-a-reader","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/a-question-from-a-reader\/","title":{"rendered":"A Question from a Reader"},"content":{"rendered":"

Many of you know that, in addition to being posted on bobdancer.com, my columns are published on the gamblingwithanedge.com website. This site allows for readers to post comments. One recent comment by someone who used the name \u201cJerry,\u201d read as follows:<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

This is off-topic but I wanted to get your opinion on VP for Winners. I have been playing a particular game at a particular casino for over two years now with excellent results on about two million in coin-in on two years of win-loss statements. I have a degree in math so I know that this is a significant sample space. The game is rated at 99.256% on VPW. My results have been 97.133% (without handpay & freeplay); 100.925% (with handpay); 102.297% (with handplay & freeplay). Since this game includes a variable multiplier, is it possible that it has been under-rated by VPW?<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The only game with variable multipliers on VPW is Super Times Pay. The return on 9\/6 Double Double Bonus is indeed 99.256%, so that is the game I assume Jerry is talking about.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jerry makes several statements. Let\u2019s look at them one by one. First, he\u2019s using Win-Loss statements as an accurate reflection of his actual play. Over the years I\u2019ve found less than 10% of such statements to closely track with my own daily figures. Assuming that one from an unnamed casino provides accurate information is not an assumption I\u2019m willing to make.<\/span><\/p>\n

Second, is $2 million a significant sample space? It probably would be if you were talking about quarter Ten Play. It probably wouldn\u2019t be if you were talking dollars or higher.<\/span><\/p>\n

Remember multipliers only come about in this game every 15 hands or so. And the ones that do come about are heavily weighted towards the \u201clower end,\u201d meaning 2x and 3x, while the higher-end multipliers 8x and 10x are fairly rare. According to the Wizard of Odds website, these are the frequencies for each of the multipliers:<\/span><\/p>\n

Super Times Pay \u2014 Actual Multiplier Probabilities<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
MUTLIPLIER<\/b><\/td>\nPROBABILITY<\/b><\/td>\nEXPECTED<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/span><\/td>\n17%<\/span><\/td>\n0.34<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/span><\/td>\n33%<\/span><\/td>\n0.99<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/span><\/td>\n16%<\/span><\/td>\n0.64<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/span><\/td>\n24%<\/span><\/td>\n1.2<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/span><\/td>\n6%<\/span><\/td>\n0.48<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/span><\/td>\n4%<\/span><\/td>\n0.4<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total<\/span><\/td>\n100%<\/span><\/td>\n4.05<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Adding the top two multipliers together, they occur 10% of the time, meaning every 150 hands or so. The mini-jackpot in DDB, called aces with a kicker, occurs slightly less than once every 16,000 hands. Remembering that the big multipliers only occur every 150 hands and each hand costs $6 to play, this means \u201cone cycle\u201d of aces with a kicker in this game is 16,000 * 150 * $6 = $14,400,000. Calling one seventh of one cycle significant is a misuse of the term. It might be a significant amount of play to Jerry, but mathematically it is insignificant.<\/span><\/p>\n

STP comes in Triple Play, Five Play, and Ten Play. In addition to aces with a kicker, dealt quads and\/or royals are important as to whether or not they come with a multiplier. Being fortunate to get dealt deuces, for example, with or without a kicker, with an 8x multiplier in effect, is going to give you a much higher positive result than average numbers predict. <\/span><\/p>\n

I don\u2019t know what big hands Jerry received, but I strongly suspect they included big hands with big multipliers. This is called \u201cpositive variance,\u201d meaning that in the time Jerry has played, he has been luckier than average. It happens. Congratulations!<\/span><\/p>\n

Jerry also mentions free play given by this particular casino. This is definitely not part of the VPW calculation but is an important consideration in the overall return of the game. <\/span><\/p>\n

The calculation of the value of STP is fairly straightforward for a computer program. The Wizard of Odds site lists the return on this game as 99.26%, which is consistent with VPW\u2019s 99.256% given that they are displayed with a different number of significant digits. I trust the figures of VPW and suggest that you should too.<\/span><\/p>\n

Going forward, Jerry, you should assume your results will be 99.256% (assuming you play perfectly — which is also far from a given for most players). The free play will be additional. Your actual results over a period as short as $2 million in coin-in will not be the same as that, but that\u2019s the best guess going forward.<\/span><\/p>\n

Do NOT assume that your 100.925% results will continue. It COULD equal that in the short term, but it\u2019s unlikely and you won\u2019t know for sure until you play the hands.<\/span><\/p>\n

I assure you that there will be other games and\/or casinos where your results will indicate negative variance. It\u2019s just part of the game. <\/span><\/p>\n

Your figures imply that free play at that casino is 1.3%. Possible, I suppose, but pretty rare. A lot of us would like to know where a casino pays that much on a game that returns 99.256%. Also realize that a 2.3% edge on $2 million of coin-in implies you are ahead $46,000 at this casino. Many casinos will restrict you, figuring you are \u201ctoo good.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

At most casinos you will be on their radar. If their free play is actually 1.3%, even on a 99.256% game, the casino is giving away the store. Eventually they will wake up. If you are someone who has been hammering this game, you will be the first one eliminated.<\/span><\/p>\n

Players differ on how to react to such a good play. Some play as hard as they can because they figure it\u2019s going to go away pretty soon and they better milk it while they can. Others believe that if they take small nibbles out of the game, it will last longer and give them more profit in the long run. You\u2019re going to have to make your own call on this.<\/span><\/p>\n\"Facebook\"<\/a>\"twitter\"<\/a>\"youtube\"<\/a>\"instagram\"<\/a>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Many of you know that, in addition to being posted on bobdancer.com, my columns are published on the gamblingwithanedge.com website. This site allows for readers to post comments. One recent comment by someone who used the name \u201cJerry,\u201d read as follows:   This is off-topic but I wanted to get your opinion on VP for […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6498,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false},"categories":[29,2],"tags":[428,1925,196],"yoast_head":"\nA Question from a Reader - Gambling With An Edge<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/a-question-from-a-reader\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Question from a Reader - Gambling With An Edge\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Many of you know that, in addition to being posted on bobdancer.com, my columns are published on the gamblingwithanedge.com website. 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