I\u2019m not convinced that an AP said that blackjack will be fabulous. I think the blogger made up that statement to support his position. (Indiana Jones asks, \u201cWho?\u201d Bureaucrat answers \u201cTop \u2026 men.\u201d) Or maybe the \u201cAP\u201d who made the statement is some fake AP, likely a casino employee who is an \u201cAP on the side.\u201d Please. I don\u2019t have time to debunk the urban myth of the casino employee who is a successful AP \u201con the side.\u201d (You know, the ones who say, \u201cIf I just had a bankroll, \u2026\u201d!)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nevertheless, let\u2019s accept that a real AP claimed that this is a great time to play blackjack on the Strip without being sweated. Maybe it is\u2014for that AP. And maybe wearing a mask will help that AP hide his face. I\u2019m also an AP, and my viewpoint is quite different. The AP spectrum is wide, so I’m just a data point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The first major omission in the PSP blog: Many of us APs are worried that our target game will no longer exist! Will our target table be open? Will a machine player discover that his machine is one of those that is turned off? Will he be able to request that that machine get turned on? Has a favorite dealer been furloughed? I\u2019m not merely speculating\u2014long-range scans indicate that several of our targets ARE missing. The search continues, but I\u2019m not happy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
PSP think that AP gangs are going to run around wearing Nixon masks grabbing all the loot. Masks are not nearly the benefit that PSP think. My crew has clean, disposable BPs betting the money. We WANT the casino to look at their faces, check the database, and give them a clean bill of health. In a recent GWAE podcast, a different surveillance employee basically admits that their game protection is simply checking for the faces of known, recently active APs in their region. So they hate the playa<\/em>, not the play<\/em>. We have faced the facebook problem for years, and developed workarounds. And in a casino where the personnel know me on sight, a mask won\u2019t be much protection. So coronavirus masks are a nothing-burger. (And we prefer V for Vendetta masks, by the way.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n PSP say that surveillance has one eye closed. I also have a\npessimistic viewpoint\u2014I see one eye open. I prefer to play at zombie casinos that\nhave eyes wide shut. We scout for casinos, shifts, and dealers that do not\nunderstand or suspect what we\u2019re doing. Our normal playing conditions are\ngreat, as they have been for years, so any massive overhaul of procedures is\nprobably not good for us. If that overhaul creates additional paranoia in the\nsurveillance room, that\u2019s definitely bad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n From a macro view, APs prosper when casinos prosper. APs are like seagulls in Atlantic City. When there are massive crowds dropping French fries and hot dog buns on the boardwalk, we seagulls get to eat like pigs. The pandemic has brought tough times to Vegas. That generally means that APs will have a tough time. Winning casinos sweat less. Winning, crowded casinos don\u2019t notice us as much. You know how many struggling casinos resort to lowering limits, reducing comps and matchplay coupons, nitpicking payoff errors, getting rid of double-deck BJ, getting rid of free hands on baccarat, and all sorts of other nittish nonsense? The AP is always the scapegoat, even for a mass shooting!<\/p>\n\n\n\n “The Rat” says he works on the Strip, which is mostly controlled by MGM and Harrah\u2019s. Do I need to list sweaty MGM\/Harrah\u2019s policies? MGM requires a players card on DD, right? (I could be wrong; I don\u2019t have first-hand knowledge on that.) Harrah\u2019s St. Louis had a $5 max on Mississippi Stud for years. Harrah\u2019s AC requires a players card to play two spots. The Playboy Club in London stiffs card counters. And the Wynn is probably even sweatier! Didn’t Steve Wynn have dogs sniffing down employees (or was that just Internet rumor)? Those policies were in happier, more profitable times. So you think they\u2019re not going to sweat it now, when the whole country is on a short fuse economically and emotionally?<\/p>\n\n\n\n For now, we’re all forced to speculate. Will the summer bring large crowds? How long will current policies be enforced? Will Vegas have an outbreak? There probably will be some good mail offers, cheap rooms, and reduced fees (some complimentary parking on the Strip\u2014yippee!). But any AP who predicts a candy store is na\u00efve, and any surveillance guy who listens to that AP is paranoid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n One last thing that just might enter into an AP\u2019s calculus: It\u2019s a pandemic! APs tend to be over 21 years old, cautious, and probably left-leaning politically. Put another way, APs probably are taking the coronavirus seriously. Casinos have to be the riskiest places on earth right now. Do I want to put myself in the middle of a crowd? And not just any crowd\u2014we\u2019re talking about a crowd of the most reckless, undisciplined people in the country (Bob Dancer made the same point on the air). We\u2019re talking about the people who never cared about the pandemic, who say \u201cyou\u2019re gonna die of somethin\u2019!\u201d, who elected a mayor who says, \u201cEbola schmabola,\u201d and who make smoking bans in casinos a non-starter (according to the South Point GM in a GWAE podcast).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Don\u2019t mistake me for an alarmist. I\u2019m not personally worried about death from coronavirus. However, I think that if I were to put in the same casino hours that I did pre-pandemic, my chance of getting infected this year could be 50% or higher, with a subsequent 1% death risk (who knows?), and inability to visit my elderly relatives. To lower this risk, I have spent the lockdown improving my cardiovascular health, boosting my running to about 30 miles per week (from 0), and losing 12 pounds. (Who knows whether that regimen helps at all, but it\u2019s gotta be healthier than drinking bleach.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n The overall health risk for me is pretty low, but hardly\nzero, and some of my teammates are at higher risk. So why go into a casino at\nall? Because there\u2019s some short-lived candy store? I doubt there is, but even\nif so, normal conditions offer plenty of opportunities. We never had enough hours\nin the day to play all the great games out there. If I had my choice, I\u2019d want\nthe conditions to be exactly as they were pre-pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I hope that the pandemic leads to expansion of online poker and sports betting, but in brick-and-mortar casinos, I expect overall AP activity to be lower than usual. The \u201cOne Eye Closed\u201d blog strikes me as yet another fear-mongering post villainizing APs (like looters during Hurricane Katrina). Yamamoto never said there is a rifle behind every blade of grass, and I\u2019m telling the PSP right here: There isn\u2019t an AP behind every mask.<\/p>\n Fifteen years ago, when most of the AP discussion was consolidated on Stanford Wong\u2019s Green Chip page, there was a recurring conjecture, posed by na\u00efvely optimistic card counters: When a butterfly flaps its wings in China, penetration increases in Vegas. 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