{"id":121732,"date":"2021-09-02T04:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-09-02T11:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/?p=121732"},"modified":"2021-09-02T14:16:19","modified_gmt":"2021-09-02T21:16:19","slug":"colin-jones-s1-e10-finale-the-ultimate-vindication-or-a-cover-play-made-in-the-forest","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/colin-jones-s1-e10-finale-the-ultimate-vindication-or-a-cover-play-made-in-the-forest\/","title":{"rendered":"Colin Jones (S1 E10 Finale): The Ultimate Vindication (or, A Cover Play Made in the Forest)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Throughout The 21st<\/sup>-Century Card Counter<\/em>,\nColin Jones interviews former students who have gone off into the wild to ply\ntheir trade. There\u2019s a bit of publication bias, because we don\u2019t hear about the\ntrain wrecks, but that\u2019s understandable. The success stories are still\nentertaining and educational, and include sufficient misery. Whenever I read\nthose reports of extended losing periods, I send CJ a mental thank-you for reminding\nme\u2014as he does throughout his book\u2014why counting cards isn\u2019t for everyone,\ncertainly not someone as soft as I am.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now comes \u201cJoe\u201d [not his real name], who turned $10k into $1 million! Do you know how hard that is? Imagine being thrown into prison, and digging a two-mile tunnel using nothing but a plastic spoon. Joe did it without the spoon! That result, and the four-year journey it took, makes Joe an instant authority on card counting in the, um, 21st<\/sup> century. Yeah, what Colin said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The question I want to ask Joe is: How much betting or\nplaying cover do you use? Apparently CJ has been divining my thoughts, because\nthere it is on page 71. Joe\u2019s answer needs no editing: \u201cI rarely use any\nbetting cover, and I never use playing cover. I\u2019ll never play a hand wrong on\npurpose to throw off the casino. \u2026 The casino has to be smart enough to be\nfooled, and you can never know what their idea of a card counter is. They don\u2019t\nhave the same training as you, so you shouldn\u2019t assume they know everything you\nknow, or will even recognize that a wrong play made for cover is wrong.\u201d Amen,\nbrother Joe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I wrote about this topic in Exhibit CAA<\/em>, back in\n2009, and with over a decade of additional experience, I wouldn\u2019t change a\nword. I\u2019d probably use more italics and bold, and exclamation points. Maybe a few\nemojis. Counters and other APs like to think that every winning bet was due to\ntheir skill, and every loss due to \u201cnegative variance.\u201d They like to come up\nwith uber-clever ploys, and then attribute their success and longevity to those\nploys. Correlation does not imply causality. Let\u2019s repeat that, all together\nnow!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We call it FPS\u2014Fancy-Play Syndrome, and Peter Griffin warned about it in The Theory of Blackjack<\/em> decades ago. Counters want to make slick moves. They want to not only win money, but feel really clever doing it, and then make sure everyone else sees how clever they are. So they over-deviate from BS. Sometimes, I think these ego-driven counters intentionally stall on an index play, just to give everyone a chance to marvel at their cleverness. I see it all the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I used to watch a gang of riffraff counters play DD together. A few small cards would come out and suddenly they\u2019re all betting the Lucky Ladies. In a 50% double-deck game, that bet doesn\u2019t get positive until a true +6.8 assuming both Queens of Hearts are live (page 68 of Exhibit CAA<\/em>). And betting $100, it would be worth maybe $2\/hour, but the buddy counters are all slowing each other down trying to look clever when they hit the sidebet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ian Andersen\u2019s Burning the Tables in Las Vegas<\/em> is rife with this mentality. My counterargument is the simple principle of ITOTKO\u2014It Takes One To Know One. If you\u2019re being watched by another counter, would standing on 16 v T, or A7 v T, fool him? Of course not. Would betting hijinks\u2014like only raising your bet after a win (in a positive count, of course)\u2014fool him? Of course not. There is no way a card-counting play is going to withstand a tape review by a knowledgeable counter catcher, unless the play is so short that the verdict is \u201cinconclusive.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The cases of greatest longevity that I\u2019ve seen (and I\u2019ve lasted\nover a decade at some casinos) are not due to standing when they thought you\nshould hit, or limiting bet increases to a 2x factor, or whatever. Rather, you\ncan survive a long time if no one looks at you. How do you remain invisible? (1)\nBy avoiding the dangerous personnel. Play only in front of apathetic or stupid\npersonnel. (2) By masking your wins. If they think you\u2019re a loser, they won\u2019t\nbother looking at you. On the flip side, if they think you\u2019re a consistent\nwinner, or if you even have a single noteworthy win, they might look at your\nplay. And if they do, counting cards will not withstand a tape review by\nsomeone who can actually count. (3) By keeping the sessions short enough (maybe\njust a shoe or two) that they just shrug their shoulders if you happen to win,\nand you rotate the shifts and bosses you play in front of. (4) By using a\ndisposable BP. I could go on, but I\u2019m just repeating what I\u2019ve written in Exhibit\nCAA<\/em> and in online posts ad nauseam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And if the place is plain stupid and doesn\u2019t ever look at anybody or know what they\u2019re looking at, then pound the place to sand (and thereafter into gold, of course).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New card counters aren\u2019t much removed from civilians, whose first thoughts about counting come from pop culture. They think Rainman knows every card coming out of the shoe. They think card counters hit hard 17 when they know a 4 is coming (the next-card-info scene with Austin Powers). They think the cat-and-mouse game is all about using disguises to thwart facial recognition software. (I often get asked about my disguises, before anything else.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The dry reality is that the counter generates profits through\nlots of hours of betting more when the shoe is richer, and sometimes much more\nthan the traditional 1-12 or 1-16 computer-simulated spreads. The successful\ncounters I know will bet whatever they can get away with, heatwise. If they can\nget away with a min-to-max spread, then they do it. Cover plays just leave\nmoney on the table. Even betting cover is largely pointless, because many\nbosses will just dislike the fact that sometimes you bet small, and sometimes\nbig, and they don\u2019t even bother to see if the bet variation correlates to the\ncount (since they probably can\u2019t count).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The counters getting churned out by CJ\u2019s Blackjack Apprenticeship are using minimal cover. I will generously say that perhaps Ian Andersen\u2019s book was appropriate for counters of a bygone era, but it surely isn\u2019t the way to go in the 21st<\/sup> century. The biggest change is that there are so many more casinos now. Vegas isn\u2019t the only game in town. Today\u2019s card counter has many places to play, and faces a casino talent pool that is stretched thin. Throughout the nation, there are dual-rate pit personnel who can\u2019t count, and who have no idea what a counter even looks like, or they\u2019re overburdened trying to watch eight tables at once. For a counter, laying cover is simply leaving money on the table. Most backoffs are based on player recognition, not analysis of the play. The modern counter will just play it as hard and long as possible, and then just move on to the next casino.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The heretic Colin Jones has literally rewritten the book on card counting. Even splitting Tens is now on the table. At my sister’s Sweet Sixteen party, mama told her that splitting Tens is taboo, but is it really<\/em> taboo? You know, mama said a lot of things.<\/p>\n\"Facebook\"<\/a>\"twitter\"<\/a>\"youtube\"<\/a>\"instagram\"<\/a>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Throughout The 21st-Century Card Counter, Colin Jones interviews former students who have gone off into the wild to ply their trade. There\u2019s a bit of publication bias, because we don\u2019t hear about the train wrecks, but that\u2019s understandable. The success stories are still entertaining and educational, and include sufficient misery. Whenever I read those reports […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false},"categories":[2],"tags":[2060,1979,1261,2057,2058,2059,2049],"yoast_head":"\nColin Jones (S1 E10 Finale): The Ultimate Vindication (or, A Cover Play Made in the Forest) - Gambling With An Edge<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/colin-jones-s1-e10-finale-the-ultimate-vindication-or-a-cover-play-made-in-the-forest\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Colin Jones (S1 E10 Finale): The Ultimate Vindication (or, A Cover Play Made in the Forest) - Gambling With An Edge\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Throughout The 21st-Century Card Counter, Colin Jones interviews former students who have gone off into the wild to ply their trade. 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