{"id":121781,"date":"2021-09-29T04:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-09-29T11:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/?p=121781"},"modified":"2021-07-03T08:39:43","modified_gmt":"2021-07-03T15:39:43","slug":"colin-jones-s2-e3-courage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/colin-jones-s2-e3-courage\/","title":{"rendered":"Colin Jones (S2 E3): Courage"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In the half century since Ed Thorp published Beat the Dealer<\/em>, dozens of card counting systems have been developed and promoted. Any numbers nerd with a simulator and a couch can sit there and spit out card counting systems, complete with all the technical mumbo jumbo about the method of index generation, the true-count conversion, the optimal bet ramps, and don\u2019t forget N0. From there the posers can endlessly debate merits of one system over another, without ever even having to suck a chip out of a casino rack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When card counters suffer huge losses, they go back to those \u201cexperts\u201d for an autopsy. Here it comes: Should I memorize more indices? Is my bet spread okay? What is the optimal wong-out point? Is HiLo good enough? Should I play on a card so I can get a buffet and a George Foreman grill?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is an entire school of red herrings. The Armchair Theoreticians (ATs) talk about this stuff ad nauseam, because it\u2019s all they can<\/em> talk about; they don\u2019t spend much, if any, time actually whacking casinos. But when you get to page 82 of Colin Jones\u2019s book, The 21st<\/sup>-Century Card Counter<\/em>, you know this dude\u2019s the real deal. In the chapter \u201cDo I Have What It Takes?\u201d he delivers the kill shot, possibly the greatest sentence in a dozen books on card counting:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDo you have the courage to drop back down to one unit to start the next shoe?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The courage<\/em>. The courage<\/em><\/strong>. Clearly, this man has been there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You see, playing at a live table in a casino is entirely different from sitting at home in front of the practice software. The live table brings pressure of three types\u2014the fear of losing real money, the social pressure to conform to the conventional idiocy on how to play the game (because doing otherwise is a betrayal of the \u201cteam\u201d), and the fear of heat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When the counter finishes a shoe with big bets, it can be very scary to drop back to one spot of the minimum to begin the next shoe. The counter feels very naked and obvious when he does that, and that fear of heat might prevent him from doing what his mathematical system demands. In a yin-and-yang way, the heat he expects from making that naked move is what makes betting big off the top (or even medium) an effective form of betting cover, in my experience. I\u2019ve seen many a boss walk away with a smug expression after seeing a reassuring big bet off the top, but it takes long experience to make good decisions on when and if cover is worth it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strangely, the counters who fear the nakedness of dropping down to one unit off the top of the new shoe don\u2019t seem to feel inhibited when they are rubbernecking at each other\u2019s cards for insurance decisions, or yucking it up and making inane comments to justify play deviations, or joining a table that already has a counter. I suppose that doing that amateurish garbage as part of a group of amateurs gives them some kind of perceived herd immunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oftentimes feeling naked is simply a side effect of knowing too much, and giving others too much credit, and exaggerating your own importance. Do you really think they are smart enough and care enough to be watching you? (Possibly.) I have a teammate who has to follow my instructions on the table, and when she started she didn\u2019t even know basic strategy, because her job was to always just follow my signals. Then one day I told her to hit a hard 17, and she hesitated and gave me the \u201cReally??\u201d look. \u201cWho told you that you were naked?\u201d She had apparently gone online and learned some BS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CJ mentions several forms of pressure: \u201cI was too timid to ask for a comp\u201d; \u201cWhat will you feel, literally in your body, when players complain about you?\u201d; \u201cWhen the dealer is hustling you for a tip?\u201d; \u201cYou\u2019re there to beat them at blackjack, not for social reasons, and certainly not to be their favorite person.\u201d You have to be prepared to be cold (as cold as Oliver Queen leaving that poor sap tied up in the cave in Arrow Season 1 Episode 15).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To teach students how to resist pressure, and become accustomed to it, CJ mentions an intriguing challenge during the BJA classes. \u201cSo rather than taking the 10 seconds to formulate and execute the right decision, you give in to the pressure and just make a rushed decision. This needs to be amended. To help trainees for the Church Team overcome this, we made them pause the game for a full minute when it was their turn to make a decision. Pausing the game for a minute feels like an absolute eternity when everyone is staring at you.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That sounds like a great idea. I\u2019d love to hear what former students have to say about that challenge task specifically, because it\u2019s really on the mark. A successful player needs to be able to hold his ground in many situations, with another player, a dealer, a boss, a Gaming Agent. You\u2019ll often encounter some player who tries to be the \u201cTable Captain.\u201d It\u2019s usually an obnoxious male. We generally don\u2019t allow that, and use a variety of tactics to take psychological control of the table ourselves. I always want my BP to be the Table Captain. At a table of newbies, the dealer might be the TC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I generally agree with the advice to try to be well-liked at the casino, but that doesn\u2019t mean you should chat with everyone (unnecessary exposure and memorability), or be a sheep, or lose sight of the goal. The goal is not to be well-liked. The goal is to beat the game, consistently, and ideally without anyone knowing that you\u2019re beating the game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The worst-case scenario is the AP who needs to feel well-liked by everyone, and who thinks the way to do that is to buy their love through tokes. You cannot buy their love. Even if you could, it\u2019s not the most cost-effective way to achieve that goal. In most cases, excessive toking, typically justified as a savant-level read on interpersonal casino dynamics, is really just an AP\u2019s inability to stand up to social pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a final warning about the challenge of card counting, CJ writes: \u201cMost likely, the risks involved in trying to mitigate your fear aren\u2019t as great as the risks of doing nothing about it. \u2026 Can you overcome your fears? Be brutally honest with yourself. If you\u2019re certain that you can\u2019t or you\u2019re not sure if you can, that\u2019s okay, but card counting probably isn\u2019t for you.\u201d Amen.<\/p>\n\"Facebook\"<\/a>\"twitter\"<\/a>\"youtube\"<\/a>\"instagram\"<\/a>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the half century since Ed Thorp published Beat the Dealer, dozens of card counting systems have been developed and promoted. Any numbers nerd with a simulator and a couch can sit there and spit out card counting systems, complete with all the technical mumbo jumbo about the method of index generation, the true-count conversion, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false},"categories":[2],"tags":[383,1979,2049],"yoast_head":"\nColin Jones (S2 E3): Courage - Gambling With An Edge<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/colin-jones-s2-e3-courage\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Colin Jones (S2 E3): Courage - Gambling With An Edge\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In the half century since Ed Thorp published Beat the Dealer, dozens of card counting systems have been developed and promoted. 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