{"id":123134,"date":"2022-09-13T16:22:45","date_gmt":"2022-09-13T23:22:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/?page_id=123134"},"modified":"2024-01-25T11:55:34","modified_gmt":"2024-01-25T19:55:34","slug":"risk-of-ruin-for-basic-strategy-players","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/risk-of-ruin-for-basic-strategy-players\/","title":{"rendered":"Risk of Ruin for Basic Strategy Players"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Blackjack Betting and Risk of Ruin for the Basic Strategy Player<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

By Brother William
(From Blackjack Forum<\/em> Vol XV #3, September 1995)
\u00a9 1995 Blackjack Forum<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

[Editor’s note: Brother William’s article about fluctuations in your blackjack bankroll when flat betting and playing basic strategy have a new relevance for players who are taking advantage of online casino bonuses or loss rebate plays. If you are a basic strategy player for any reason, study the article and chart below to get a handle on the normal fluctuations you can expect in your blackjack bankroll. –Arnold Snyder]<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the June 1995 issue of Blackjack Forum,<\/em> I suggested that it would be helpful to basic strategy blackjack players to print detailed risk charts indicating standard deviation (fluctuation) for flat betting when playing basic strategy. I think there is a danger for players who are milking comps and promotions in not understanding these risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an attempt to remedy this problem, I have created an all-purpose risk chart for the basic strategy player. I hope basic strategy blackjack players will study this chart carefully.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How to Use the Blackjack Basic Strategy Betting Risk Chart<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

Assumptions:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. House advantage over the basic strategy player is 0.54% (which would correspond precisely to a 6-deck shoe game with Strip rules, but works pretty well for most games available anywhere, as the house edge is usually set around \u00bd% over the basic strategy player).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. 60 hands per hour of play. (This is pretty close to what you\u2019ll average with a full table.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Flat betting 1 unit per hand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regardless of what your unit size is, you may use this chart simply by multiplying. If you were playing $1 per hand, then all of the chart entries in units can simply be read right from the chart in dollars and cents. Example: betting $1 per hand for 16 hours of play, as per the assumed game conditions, you would have an expected loss of $5.18. You will be within one standard deviation (SD) of this expectation 68% of the time, which translates to an actual result between a loss of $39.27 and a win of $28.90. You will be within three standard deviations 99.7% of the time, which translates to an actual result between a loss of $117.80 and a win of $86.69.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Using a $100 betting unit, if you intend to play a total of 16 hours of basic strategy in this game and you\u2019re willing to accept a risk level of three SD\u2019s, simply move the decimal point two places to the right. You would expect to lose $518.00, but your actual result 99.7% of the time would fall between a loss of $11,780.00 and a win of $8,669.00.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, if you can stand the thought of losing somewhere around $12,000 every rare once in a while in 16 hours of play, you can afford to flat bet this game with black chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The charts are very easy to use with flat bets of $1, $10, $100 and $1000, because you simply have to move the decimal point. For flat bets of $5 or $25 or whatever, just use a pocket calculator.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note that the entry in the \u201cexpected loss\u201d column can be used to estimate what you are actually \u201cpaying\u201d for any comps your action buys.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Blackjack Basic Strategy Risk Chart<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
# hours<\/strong><\/td>expected
loss (units)<\/strong><\/td>		SD %<\/strong><\/td>SD levels<\/strong><\/td>loss
(units)<\/strong><\/td>		win
(units)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
1<\/td>0.32<\/td>14.2<\/td>1    68%
2    95%
3    99.7%
4    100%<\/td>		8.84
17.69
26.53
35.39<\/td>		8.20
16.39
24.59
32.79<\/td><\/tr>
2<\/td>0.65<\/td>10.0<\/td>1    68%
2    95%
3    99.7%
4    100%<\/td>		12.70
25.40
38.09
50.79<\/td>		11.40
22.80
34.21
45.60<\/td><\/tr>
3<\/td>0.97<\/td>8.20<\/td>1    68%
2    95%
3    99.7%
4    100%<\/td>		15.73
31.46
47.19
62.92<\/td>		13.79
27.57
41.36
55.14<\/td><\/tr>
4<\/td>1.30<\/td>7.10<\/td>1    68%
2    95%
3    99.7%
4    100%<\/td>		18.34
36.67
55.01
73.35<\/td>		15.75
31.49
47.24
62.98<\/td><\/tr>
8<\/td>2.59<\/td>5.02<\/td>1    68%
2    95%
3    99.7%
4    100%<\/td>		26.69
53.38
80.08
106.77<\/td>		21.51
43.02
64.52
86.03<\/td><\/tr>
12<\/td>3.89<\/td>4.10<\/td>1    68%
2    95%
3    99.7%
4    100%<\/td>		33.40
66.81
100.21
133.62<\/td>		25.63
51.26
76.88
102.51<\/td><\/tr>
16<\/td>5.18<\/td>3.55<\/td>1    68%
2    95%
3    99.7%
4    100%<\/td>		39.27
78.53
117.80
157.07<\/td>		28.90
57.80
86.69
115.59<\/td><\/tr>
20<\/td>6.48<\/td>3.18<\/td>1    68%
2    95%
3    99.7%
4    100%<\/td>		44.59
89.17
133.76
178.34<\/td>		31.63
63.25
94.88
126.50<\/td><\/tr>
24<\/td>7.78<\/td>2.90<\/td>1    68%
2    95%
3    99.7%
4    100%<\/td>		49.52
99.04
148.55
198.07<\/td>		33.97
67.93
101.90
135.86<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Again, I hope any basic strategy blackjack players out there will study this chart carefully. The bankroll you save my be your own. Good luck! \u2660<\/p>\n\"Facebook\"<\/a>\"twitter\"<\/a>\"youtube\"<\/a>\"instagram\"<\/a>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Blackjack Betting and Risk of Ruin for the Basic Strategy Player By Brother William(From Blackjack Forum Vol XV #3, September 1995)\u00a9 1995 Blackjack Forum [Editor’s note: Brother William’s article about fluctuations in your blackjack bankroll when flat betting and playing basic strategy have a new relevance for players who are taking advantage of online casino bonuses or […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false},"categories":[],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nRisk of Ruin for Basic Strategy Players - Gambling With An Edge<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/risk-of-ruin-for-basic-strategy-players\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Risk of Ruin for Basic Strategy Players - 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