{"id":124012,"date":"2022-09-27T17:30:26","date_gmt":"2022-09-28T00:30:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/?page_id=124012"},"modified":"2024-01-25T11:55:13","modified_gmt":"2024-01-25T19:55:13","slug":"false-key-probability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/false-key-probability\/","title":{"rendered":"False Key Probability"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

False Keys in McDowell’s\u00a0Blackjack Ace Prediction<\/em><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

by S. Yama
(From Blackjack Forum<\/em> XXIV #2, Spring 2005)
\u00a9 2005 Blackjack Forum<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Radar, great rebuttal articles on McDowell\u2019s numbers in Blackjack Ace Prediction<\/em>. You wrote:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is wrong because a share of the broken sequences and false keys properly belong to the aces that land on the other betting spots.<\/p>

By subtracting .15 and .10 (.25) from .38 he comes up with an estimated 13% hit rate on his ace bets.<\/p>

Instead, he should have multiplied .38 by .25.<\/p>

.38 x .25 = .095<\/p>

Then, he should have subtracted .095 from .38.<\/p>

.38 – .095 = .285<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

It is a small point, however, unless I am missing something (which happens more often than I dare to admit), false key cards and broken sequences are not mutually exclusive. So it should be the chance of the Ace hitting the money minus when the sequence is broken minus when a false key card falls that is not in a broken sequence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Or the same thing in reversed order: chance of hitting minus false card minus broken sequence without false key card. I don’t think it is a simple function of additions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers for cited case would be:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

.38 – [.38 x .15 + (.38 – .38 x .15) x .1)] = .38 – .057 – .0323 = .2907 <\/strong>or<\/p>\n\n\n\n

.38 – [.38 x .1 + (.38 – .38 x .15) x .15] = .2907<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The difference is very small but I thought that you should be aware of it<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S. Yama<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Radar O\u2019Reilly Replies:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course you’re right , S. Yama. Thanks. \u2660<\/p>\n\"Facebook\"<\/a>\"twitter\"<\/a>\"youtube\"<\/a>\"instagram\"<\/a>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

False Keys in McDowell’s\u00a0Blackjack Ace Prediction by S. Yama(From Blackjack Forum XXIV #2, Spring 2005)\u00a9 2005 Blackjack Forum Radar, great rebuttal articles on McDowell\u2019s numbers in Blackjack Ace Prediction. You wrote: This is wrong because a share of the broken sequences and false keys properly belong to the aces that land on the other betting spots. By subtracting […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false},"categories":[],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nFalse Key Probability - Gambling With An Edge<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/false-key-probability\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"False Key Probability - Gambling With An Edge\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"False Keys in McDowell’s\u00a0Blackjack Ace Prediction by S. Yama(From Blackjack Forum XXIV #2, Spring 2005)\u00a9 2005 Blackjack Forum Radar, great rebuttal articles on McDowell\u2019s numbers in Blackjack Ace Prediction. You wrote: This is wrong because a share of the broken sequences and false keys properly belong to the aces that land on the other betting spots. 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