{"id":15358,"date":"2017-10-31T09:24:43","date_gmt":"2017-10-31T16:24:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/?p=15358"},"modified":"2017-10-31T09:24:43","modified_gmt":"2017-10-31T16:24:43","slug":"be-careful-what-you-wish-for","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/be-careful-what-you-wish-for\/","title":{"rendered":"Be Careful What You Wish For \u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"

Say you\u2019re playing 9\/6 Jacks or Better and are dealt a hand like A\u2666<\/span> K\u2663 J\u2666 T\u2666 3\u2666<\/span>. The best play, of course, is AJT3<\/em><\/strong>. Many players hold the inferior AJT<\/em><\/strong>. As I see it, players make the lesser play for one of two reasons:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. They simply do not know that AJT3<\/em><\/strong> is worth 3.7\u00a2 more than AJT<\/em><\/strong> for the 5-coin dollar player — given that the fifth card dealt was an off-suit king. Holding the flush kicker is a rather advanced play and many players aren\u2019t students of the game. Or maybe they go back and forth between games without understanding the differences between them and make more-or-less the same plays for all games.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

     <\/p>\n

      \n
    1. They know AJT3<\/em><\/strong> is better and they just don\u2019t care. They really love to get royals and 3.7\u00a2 isn\u2019t that big of a cost for a chance to get such an exciting hand.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

       <\/p>\n

      Today I want to address that second group of players, namely the ones who are willing to pay an extra premium in order to get the royal flush. My position is that for most players, this is a costlier move than they realize.<\/p>\n

      When I spoke of that 3.7\u00a2 difference in value between the two plays, the math included a 1-in-1,081 chance of getting a $4,000 royal flush. The trouble is that the $4,000 royal flush for most people isn\u2019t worth $4,000.<\/p>\n

      First of all, there\u2019s tipping. When they bring you your money, they usually provide you with 39 $100 bills and five twenties. You\u2019re not required to tip, but many players give away one or more of their twenties to the casino staff. If you\u2019re generous enough to give away all five twenties, you have increased the difference between holding AJT<\/em><\/strong> and AJT3 <\/em><\/strong>from 3.7\u00a2 to 12.9\u00a2. If you got the best hand available holding AJT3<\/em><\/strong>, namely a $30 flush, no casino employee would be there holding his\/her hand out expecting a share of it.<\/p>\n

      Second, and far more importantly, there\u2019s a W2G that comes along with that $4,000. If you\u2019re playing in Mississippi, the state takes away $120 — with no chance of getting it back. Louisiana takes $240, and you can get some or all of that back by filing a Louisiana state income tax form. If you fill out the form yourself, it takes an hour or more and you may not do it correctly. If you hire a tax professional to do it, it can cost more than the $240 you\u2019re hoping to get back. There are a few other states with similar policies. If you shrug off that extra $240 every 1-in-1081 times it occurs when you draw two cards to AJT<\/em><\/strong>, that increases the difference in EV between the two plays by an extra 22.2\u00a2.<\/p>\n

      Possibly different from the state where you\u2019re playing, the state where you reside has tax rules too. Some states let you deduct your gambling losses from your gambling winnings. Some don\u2019t. Some states have a state income tax on gambling winnings. Some don\u2019t. Professional gamblers have different rules than non-professionals. If you itemize your W2Gs, it reduces other benefits you can claim.<\/p>\n

      I\u2019m not a tax expert by any means, but I can safely say that there are significant costs to getting a $4,000 royal flush for many players.<\/p>\n

      The third reason royal flushes can be \u201cbad news\u201d is that casinos get excited if you get too many of them. Not so much for $4,000 royals perhaps, but if you play for larger stakes, $20,000 or higher royal flushes end up with you being discussed by casino management. Although exactly how many royals you hit is largely luck, being lucky can get you kicked out. Nobody has everbbeen kicked out for hitting too many flushes.<\/p>\n

      If players correctly understood the factors discussed today, even on a hand like A\u2663 6\u2665<\/span> J\u2663 T\u2663 3\u2663, where AJT<\/em><\/strong> is superior to AJT3 <\/em><\/strong>by 5.1\u00a2, these players would intentionally and intelligently go for the flush — simply because ending up with the royal has so many additional costs.<\/p>\n

      (I understand that the two hands presented today look virtually the same to many players and they cannot see why the correct play is different. That\u2019s a discussion for another day.)<\/p>\n

      Playing for quarters or less makes you immune from these considerations at most casinos. Some casinos, however, do make a $1,000 jackpot a hand-pay situation. If that\u2019s the case where you play, some of your immunity disappears.<\/p>\n

      Taking slightly the worst of it to go for a jackpot that creates a financial burden strikes me as similar to paying money to buy heroin. Heroin ends up destroying an individual and to pay money to do this boggles the mind. Most healthy people are disciplined enough to stay away from heroin. Few gamblers are disciplined enough to be willing to pay a small premium in order to stay away from royal flushes.<\/p>\n\"Facebook\"<\/a>\"twitter\"<\/a>\"youtube\"<\/a>\"instagram\"<\/a>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Say you\u2019re playing 9\/6 Jacks or Better and are dealt a hand like A\u2666 K\u2663 J\u2666 T\u2666 3\u2666. The best play, of course, is AJT3. Many players hold the inferior AJT. As I see it, players make the lesser play for one of two reasons: They simply do not know that AJT3 is worth 3.7\u00a2 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6498,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false},"categories":[29,2,3],"tags":[430,428,196],"yoast_head":"\nBest Play? Be Careful What You Wish For<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Say you\u2019re playing 9\/6 Jacks or Better and are dealt a hand like A\u2666 K\u2663 J\u2666 T\u2666 3\u2666. The best play, of course, is AJT3. 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