{"id":23368,"date":"2017-12-12T09:42:13","date_gmt":"2017-12-12T17:42:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/?p=23368"},"modified":"2017-12-12T09:42:13","modified_gmt":"2017-12-12T17:42:13","slug":"if-thats-random-you-can-bite-me","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/if-thats-random-you-can-bite-me\/","title":{"rendered":"If That\u2019s Random, You Can Bite Me!"},"content":{"rendered":"

This column is inspired by an email I received about 20 years ago, when TITO tickets weren\u2019t found everywhere. I don\u2019t have the email in front of me, but I remember the gist of it and certainly the line that I\u2019m using as a title. For the rest, I\u2019m using some artistic license that I believe is fairly close to the original.<\/p>\n

Dear Mr. Dancer:<\/p>\n

Life is so unfair!<\/p>\n

I was playing quarter 9\/6 Jacks or Better at my local casino. With the 0.67% cash slot club, it\u2019s mildly positive. The lady next to me, let\u2019s call her \u201cLucky Lucy,\u201d was playing 9\/5 Double Double Bonus, a game that you say is so bad that it should be avoided.<\/p>\n

Anyway, Lucky Lucy was dealt AAAA2 for a $500 hand pay. Three hands later LL got 22223. The 800 quarters started to spill into her tray, but the hopper went dry before she got the whole $200. So, they came and filled up the machine. About 10 hands later, LL nailed a $1,000 royal flush!<\/p>\n

I\u2019m playing the so-called good game and losing my ass! In less than 20 hands, which took more than 20 minutes because she needed so much servicing from the casino staff, on a terrible game, she was ahead $1,700. I\u2019m starting to believe that pay schedules mean squat. You\u2019re either lucky or you\u2019re not!<\/p>\n

And random \u2013 smandom! If you think this was a random result you can bite me!<\/p>\n

Frustrated Fred<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Dear FF:<\/p>\n

Yes, I think it was a random result, but I respectfully decline your culinary invitation.<\/p>\n

LL had an extremely lucky run that she\u2019ll be talking about for the rest of her life! Thirty years from now, she\u2019ll be saying, \u201cLet me tell you about that time back in 1996 when . . . .\u201c \u00a0She was playing a less-than-98% game that normally eats her lunch. There will be ugly stretches where that game pays less than 90% over a few thousand hands — as well as very occasional times where she wins big. Even including the \u201cnever-in-my-wildest-dreams\u201d session you just described, she\u2019ll be a big loser on this game over time.<\/p>\n

Could it happen that she quits forever and ends up a net winner on that terrible game after such a wonderful run? Theoretically, I suppose, but it usually doesn\u2019t work that way. What is more likely is that she\u2019ll come back as soon as possible to see if she can capture lightning in a bottle one more time. And the most likely result is that she is going to lose — because that\u2019s the nature of that game.<\/p>\n

You, on the other hand, are playing a dull little game where, over time, you\u2019re going to lose almost a half percent, which is more than offset by the generous slot club. There will be days you win and more days you lose, but over time it will come pretty close to the half percent it’s supposed to (assuming you play well) and you\u2019ll be a net winner after collecting your slot club benefits.<\/p>\n

What \u201crandom\u201d means in this case is that the results mimic those of a freshly shuffled fair deck. Sometimes you\u2019re randomly dealt four aces and a kicker (one time in 216,580, if you\u2019re counting). Unusual? Yes. It certainly doesn\u2019t happen every day or even every year to a given player. But it happens. It happened to LL while you were sitting next to her and she got $500. It\u2019ll happen to you just as often, maybe next time will be a year or three down the road, but you\u2019ll only get $31.25. At times like that, it\u2019s hard to see that receiving an extra $1.25 for every time you end up with two pair pays off better in the long run. But it does! If you want to complain about playing the wrong game when such a nice hand is dealt, you won\u2019t be the first one to do so! Many video poker players complain a lot!<\/p>\n

\u201cRandom\u201d includes lots of results that are surprising because they happened TODAY. It never happens that you play 1,000 hands and get the exactly predicted number of every hand. It can\u2019t happen because some hands have cycles much longer than 1,000 hands. It\u2019s going to take about 40 of those 1,000-hand cycles to receive a royal, and 650 of those cycles to be dealt a royal. But dealt royals happen randomly — once every 649,740 hands on average. Keep playing and you\u2019ll occasionally be dealt a royal. It happens. Randomly!<\/p>\n

Good video poker players have come to believe that over time, the results end up where they should. Over millions of hands, you\u2019ll end up with approximately the correct number of royals, straight flushes, 3-of-a-kinds, etc. If you\u2019re playing where you have the advantage, you\u2019re very likely to be ahead after millions of hands. If you\u2019re behind after millions of hands, it most likely is because you were playing games where you did not have the advantage.<\/p>\n

Can I guarantee this? No. Of course not. Depending on how big your edge is and how many hands you\u2019ve played, you might be an 80% favorite to be ahead, or a 90% favorite, or a 99.993% favorite, or whatever. You will never be a 100% favorite to be ahead, but we don\u2019t live our lives with 100% guarantees. (You can\u2019t 100% guarantee that you\u2019ll be alive a week from now, for example.)<\/p>\n

But you can BET you\u2019ll be ahead, and really that\u2019s what we\u2019re doing when we gamble. It can be a very, very smart bet to make, even if we can\u2019t be positive that we\u2019ll always win.<\/p>\n

But even though I can\u2019t guarantee I\u2019ll win over the next however-many years, I 100% believe I\u2019ll do very well and am betting considerable amounts that it\u2019s true.<\/p>\n\"Facebook\"<\/a>\"twitter\"<\/a>\"youtube\"<\/a>\"instagram\"<\/a>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This column is inspired by an email I received about 20 years ago, when TITO tickets weren\u2019t found everywhere. I don\u2019t have the email in front of me, but I remember the gist of it and certainly the line that I\u2019m using as a title. For the rest, I\u2019m using some artistic license that I […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6498,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false},"categories":[2,3],"tags":[430,428],"yoast_head":"\nIf That\u2019s Random, You Can Bite Me<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In this case \u201crandom\u201d means that the results mimic those of a new shuffled fair deck. Sometimes you\u2019re randomly dealt four aces with a kicker. Unusual? 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