{"id":4118,"date":"2016-08-16T09:23:55","date_gmt":"2016-08-16T16:23:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gamblingwithanedge.com\/?p=4118"},"modified":"2016-08-16T09:59:32","modified_gmt":"2016-08-16T16:59:32","slug":"experts-say-opposite-things","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/experts-say-opposite-things\/","title":{"rendered":"When Experts Say Opposite Things"},"content":{"rendered":"

When I was in graduate school 45 years ago, plus or minus, I heard about an incident many years prior to that at the University of Chicago. It appears that there was an elevator for a campus building with a \u201cStudents Only\u201d sign on it. One professor entered and was challenged, presumably in a friendly way, because he wasn\u2019t a student. The professor answered, \u201cWe are all students. I study much more today than when I was your age.\u201d<\/p>\n

I\u2019m that way too. I study gambling as much or more today as I ever did. One \u201cadvantage\u201d of hosting a radio show about gambling is that I am \u201cforced\u201d to read gambling books that I wouldn\u2019t otherwise pick up. I read the book in order to try to ask interesting questions of our guests. This gives me a much broader grasp of gambling than most players have.<\/p>\n

I have many gurus — in the sense that I listen to what they have to say and try to apply it to my own situation. Two (of many) are Ed Miller and Richard Munchkin. Recently I realized that they said virtually the opposite thing about a subject — although ironically they both respect each other and would probably agree with the point of view of the other guy.<\/p>\n

Sounds strange, right? Let me continue.<\/p>\n

Ed Miller writes a lot about No Limit Hold\u2019Em cash games with an emphasis on low stakes games. His recent book, The Course: Serious Hold\u2019Em Strategy for Smart Players<\/a>,<\/em> is an excellent treatise on how to make money in $1-$2 and $2-$5 games. We\u2019ve spoken about the book on the air, but we barely scratched the surface of what the book holds.<\/p>\n

Near the end of the book is a section entitled \u201cThe Pitfalls of Running Good.\u201d Miller says, \u201cRunning good out of the gate is one of the worst things that can happen to players. If they rack up big wins early on, a couple of bad things can happen. First, they develop unrealistic expectations. . . . Second, these early wins reinforce bad habits.\u201d<\/p>\n

I\u2019m not going to quote his entire argument, but I found it persuasive. You need to guard against the dangers of running good. And Miller discusses several ways to do that.<\/p>\n

Richard Munchkin, of course, is my co-host on the Gambling with an Edge<\/em> radio show. However much I\u2019ve prepared to listen to what our guest has to say on the air, I\u2019m always eager to hear what Richard has to say as well. Although I often prepare a script beforehand and Richard knows where I\u2019m going to go in the discussion, I never<\/em> know beforehand what he\u2019s going to say and I find that interesting and educational.<\/p>\n

On more than one occasion, Munchkin has opined that a disproportionate number of successful gamblers ran good at the beginning. Why? Because a disproportionate number of the players who ran bad quit gambling! Somebody who always seems to lose has a tendency to give up and conclude that gambling is not for him.<\/p>\n

So Ed Miller says running good at the beginning is one of the worst things to happen to you and Richard Munchkin says it happened to most successful gamblers. Not exactly contradicting each other — but close.<\/p>\n

After mulling this over for a while, I decided they\u2019re both right!<\/p>\n

Running good does create some unreasonable expectations and bad habits, but gamblers who end up successful eventually learn to deal with these things. (If they don\u2019t, they\u2019re not successful gamblers. Nobody runs good forever.)<\/p>\n

However bad running good is in terms of learning to play the game the right way, I\u2019ll take it every day! While I understand Miller\u2019s argument, I\u2019d rather be $10,000 ahead than $10,000 behind. And so would you.<\/p>\n

As to whether Munchkin was right about today\u2019s successful players running good at the start, I started to examine whether it was true for me in particular. A case could be made that it was — but it also doesn\u2019t matter. Anecdotal evidence about any one player (including me) doesn\u2019t come close to proving or disproving any statement starting with \u201cMost players . . .\u201d<\/p>\n

But I found Richard\u2019s argument persuasive as well. The early loser tends to quit. The early winners tend to keep going. He\u2019s looking at tendencies — not something that is correct 100% of the time.<\/p>\n

I like it better when my gurus disagree with each other. It forces me to think about the arguments and come to my own conclusions. That\u2019s how I improve my craft. And the fact that these two gurus are addressing games other than video poker means I always have to see if what they said applies to my game as well. Again, that\u2019s how I improve my craft.<\/p>\n\"Facebook\"<\/a>\"twitter\"<\/a>\"youtube\"<\/a>\"instagram\"<\/a>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

When I was in graduate school 45 years ago, plus or minus, I heard about an incident many years prior to that at the University of Chicago. It appears that there was an elevator for a campus building with a \u201cStudents Only\u201d sign on it. One professor entered and was challenged, presumably in a friendly […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false},"categories":[29,2,3,1,685,398],"tags":[1085,243,39,212,1083,1084,145,255,1082],"yoast_head":"\nWhen Experts Say Opposite Things - Gambling With An Edge<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/experts-say-opposite-things\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"When Experts Say Opposite Things - Gambling With An Edge\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"When I was in graduate school 45 years ago, plus or minus, I heard about an incident many years prior to that at the University of Chicago. 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