{"id":5923,"date":"2017-05-30T10:43:03","date_gmt":"2017-05-30T17:43:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/?p=5923"},"modified":"2017-05-30T10:43:03","modified_gmt":"2017-05-30T17:43:03","slug":"look-wheel-spin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/look-wheel-spin\/","title":{"rendered":"A Look at a Wheel Spin"},"content":{"rendered":"

Today\u2019s column isn\u2019t specifically about video poker, but it concerns a gambling situation that video poker players encounter in a casino. And most video poker players don\u2019t care whether a $1,000 prize comes from a jackpot, a casino drawing, or a tournament.<\/p>\n

Assume a casino is giving away money. If your name is called, you get to spin a fair wheel, where the possible prizes range between $5 and $1,000 in the following ratios:<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Number of<\/td>\nPrize<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Occurrences<\/td>\nAmount<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1<\/td>\n$1,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1<\/td>\n$500<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\n$250<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\n$100<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\n$50<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/td>\n$20<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15<\/td>\n$10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20<\/td>\n$5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

If you add this all up, you\u2019ll see there are 60 slots on the wheel, and the sum of the prizes adds up to $3,600. This makes the spin worth $60 on average ($3.600 \/ 60 slots = $60 \/ slot). \u00a0A few of the prizes are quite a bit larger than the average, and three-fourths of the prizes are $5, $10, or $20. To make the problem more interesting, assume the casino offers a $50 buyout. This is less than the $60 average, of course, but it\u2019s a lot better than 45 out of the 60 prize and equal to another five out of the 60 prizes.<\/p>\n

If somehow you were in the enviable position of being allowed to spin the wheel 400 times, you\u2019d be a fool to take the buyout of $20,000 (400 * $50 = $20,000) rather than the average of $24,000 ($400 * $60 = $24,000) that would come if you spun the wheel every time. Spinning 400 times is close enough to the \u201clong run\u201d that you figure to hit the $1,000 and $500 enough times to make spinning pay off more than the buyout. It doesn\u2019t HAVE to work out this way, of course, but the odds are in your favor.<\/p>\n

The more interesting case is if the spin is \u201cmaximum once per person.\u201d Now if we choose to spin and end up with a lousy $5, we have forever lost the $45 we could have gotten from the guaranteed $50. We will never get it back from this promotion simply because we wouldn\u2019t be allowed to spin again, so the results could never average out. In this case, is it better to take the guaranteed $50 or spin for the prize with a bigger average (but a significant probability for a smaller result)?<\/p>\n

To my way of thinking, whether we get the opportunity once or 400 times is not an important distinction. \u00a0I believe spinning is correct in either case. All of us have MANY gambles, and we are NEVER in balance in all of them. To the smart gambler, we take the advantage every time we can and trust\/hope that it all balances out in the end.<\/p>\n

If the numbers were \u201clarge\u201d (which is personally defined), then it can certainly make sense to take the \u201cbird in the hand\u201d. For example, if we were guaranteed $5 million or could spin the wheel and get an average of $6 million, I would take the $5 million in a heartbeat.<\/p>\n

Even though the math is the same, $5 million is such a potentially life-changing amount that there is no way I can feel comfortable gambling with it. But $50? For me that\u2019s pocket change and I\u2019m going with the math.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s possible that $50 is not \u2018pocket change\u2019 to someone in this position. If that\u2019s a large amount to you, by all means take the sure thing if that will make you feel better.<\/p>\n

Also, please note that I\u2019m stipulating that the wheel is fair — meaning each of the 60 positions are equally likely to come up. In the real world, that\u2019s assuming away part of the problem. You have to use your judgment here. In Nevada casinos, I\u2019m going to assume the wheel is fair. I\u2019m not sure I\u2019m going to make the same assumption everywhere.<\/p>\n\"Facebook\"<\/a>\"twitter\"<\/a>\"youtube\"<\/a>\"instagram\"<\/a>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Today\u2019s column isn\u2019t specifically about video poker, but it concerns a gambling situation that video poker players encounter in a casino. And most video poker players don\u2019t care whether a $1,000 prize comes from a jackpot, a casino drawing, or a tournament. Assume a casino is giving away money. If your name is called, you […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false},"categories":[2,3],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nA Look at a Wheel Spin - Gambling With An Edge<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/look-wheel-spin\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Look at a Wheel Spin - Gambling With An Edge\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Today\u2019s column isn\u2019t specifically about video poker, but it concerns a gambling situation that video poker players encounter in a casino. 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