{"id":63060,"date":"2018-07-13T07:00:54","date_gmt":"2018-07-13T14:00:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/?p=63060"},"modified":"2018-07-18T17:51:00","modified_gmt":"2018-07-19T00:51:00","slug":"what-can-we-learn-from-new-jerseys-first-half-month-sports-betting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/what-can-we-learn-from-new-jerseys-first-half-month-sports-betting\/","title":{"rendered":"What Can We Learn From New Jersey\u2019s First Half-Month of Sports Betting?"},"content":{"rendered":"

[<\/span>Editor\u2019s Note:<\/b> Captain Jack is a long-time professional sports bettor and observer of the sports betting scene. He\u2019s headquartered in New Jersey, so he\u2019s witnessed the implementation of post-SCOTUS-decision sports wagering there and in Delaware, and is closely following developments across the country. This blog will concentrate on the growth of sports betting throughout the U.S. and the world, as well as some of the opportunities it brings for players.]<\/span><\/p>\n

New Jersey released the revenue numbers for the first two weeks of legalized sports betting in the state and the numbers are going to be getting a lot of media attention. Both the William Hill Sports Book at Monmouth Park and the sports book at Borgata opened for business on June 14. For two weeks, until The Ocean Resort in Atlantic City opened its doors on June 28, these were the only two places to place legal sports wagers in the state. New Jersey has a long history of being the bellwethers of casino regulation and reporting. While Nevada has long had murky reports that only give a general picture of casino performance in regions of the state, New Jersey will be reporting their numbers per casino or racetrack. For people, like myself, who avidly track this emerging industry it\u2019s a big step into the light.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Numbers<\/b><\/p>\n

Here are the revenue numbers as reported by the NJ Division of Gaming Enforcement (NJDGE):<\/span><\/p>\n

Borgata *\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0$986,831<\/span><\/p>\n

Monmouth Park*\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0$2,279,166<\/span><\/p>\n

Ocean Resort**\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 $192,671<\/span><\/p>\n

Total\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 $3,458,668<\/b><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span>– <\/i><\/b>16 days of legal wagering.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

**- 3 days of legal wagering.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

At first glance, the media will probably latch onto that $3.46 million revenue number and attempt to extrapolate it out. After all, the 191 sports books in Nevada won $20.5 million in May and May was a far busier sports month. The final two weeks of June were reliant on MLB and World Cup Soccer. \u00a0The numbers show that two physical sports books took in roughly 16% of what 191 sports books (and mobile apps) made in the entire month of May 2018. Does that mean that a mature New Jersey sports betting market with 10-20 sports books and mobile apps and website betting could top $100 million in revenue? Well, possibly, but first let\u2019s look deeper at that eye-popping $3.46 million.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Devil is in the Details<\/b><\/p>\n

If you dig further into the NJ DGE report, you\u2019ll find there are some details here that make this initial two-week introduction to legalized betting less rosy as it seems. First, New Jersey calculates the monthly revenue numbers the same way Nevada does:<\/span><\/p>\n

Revenue = (Tickets Sold) – (Tickets Cashed)<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

In Nevada, this doesn\u2019t present too many issues because the effect of cashed winning tickets on past events is mitigated by the creation of new tickets to be resolved at later dates. However, in New Jersey, no futures events (like the Super Bowl or World Series or even World Cup) were resolved in June. Tickets were only sold in June. This means just about every wager placed in those two weeks on a futures event is currently being reported as revenue. This inflates the revenue number greatly for June, and outside of some World Cup futures, probably for every month for the rest of the summer. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Fortunately, the NJDGE notes this in an addendum to its report and then adds some numbers to provide a bit more clarity. First, the total handle in the state for those two weeks was $16,409,619. Of that, $1,045,772 was wagered on futures events that haven\u2019t resolved. Next they provided a detailed breakdown of how the win for the casinos breaks down:<\/span><\/p>\n

Completed Events\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0$1,203,700<\/span><\/p>\n

Future Events\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0$1,045,772<\/span><\/p>\n

Uncashed Winning Tickets\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0$1,209,196<\/span><\/p>\n

Total\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0$3,458,668<\/b><\/p>\n

We\u2019ve gone from an eye-popping $3.46 million to a less impressive $1.2 million. It\u2019s tough to estimate the effect of those futures tickets, but generally the hold % on futures is between 20-25%. So a better estimate of the net win for New Jersey sports betting is actually $1,203,700 + $250,000 or so on total handle of $16,409,619. That\u2019s an 8.86% estimated hold for the sports books. That\u2019s a relatively strong number compared to what Nevada normally holds (4-6%).<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

What Have We Learned?<\/b><\/p>\n

Don\u2019t believe the hype that you\u2019ll read about a $3.46 million profit in the first two weeks. The true number is about 40% of that. New Jersey\u2019s numbers are impressive when you consider the entire $16 million was placed at about 16 total betting windows in two locations in the state. We\u2019ll see the same discrepancy in July as well. Additionally, FanDuel Sports Book opens at Meadowlands Racetrack just outside of New York City on July 14. Their numbers should be equally as eye-popping given that over 11 million people live within a 25-mile radius. Then in August, the mobile apps and web-based wagering will start to show up in New Jersey. Unlike Nevada, registration and deposits\/withdrawals will not need to be done in-person at the casino. By the time the NFL kicks off their season on September 6, the New Jersey market will be flush with betting opportunity and healthy competition.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the meantime, I\u2019ll continue to update this space with new developments regarding the expansion of sports wagering in the United States. Next up, Mississippi! They plan to go live with legalized wagering on July 21. I\u2019ll talk about what that market looks like in my next post.<\/span><\/p>\n\"Facebook\"<\/a>\"twitter\"<\/a>\"youtube\"<\/a>\"instagram\"<\/a>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[Editor\u2019s Note: Captain Jack is a long-time professional sports bettor and observer of the sports betting scene. He\u2019s headquartered in New Jersey, so he\u2019s witnessed the implementation of post-SCOTUS-decision sports wagering there and in Delaware, and is closely following developments across the country. This blog will concentrate on the growth of sports betting throughout the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":63070,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false},"categories":[19],"tags":[1330,1754,354,1776,1781,1783,224,1777,1784,1782,174,279,1778,1379,1785,1786],"yoast_head":"\nWhat Can We Learn From New Jersey\u2019s First Half-Month of Sports Betting?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"New Jersey released the numbers for the first 2 weeks of legalized sports betting in the state and they are going to be getting a lot of media attention.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link 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