{"id":69421,"date":"2018-08-16T01:57:25","date_gmt":"2018-08-16T08:57:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/?p=69421"},"modified":"2018-08-15T17:01:27","modified_gmt":"2018-08-16T00:01:27","slug":"wild-west-in-sports-betting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/wild-west-in-sports-betting\/","title":{"rendered":"Wild West in Sports Betting"},"content":{"rendered":"

The SCOTUS decision legalizing sports betting on a state-by-state basis has unleashed a firestorm of activity and chaos. How this is going to play out over the next few years is anyone’s guess, but here are some factors and scenarios to consider:<\/span><\/p>\n

I originally thought that the books in newly legal states would merely be clones of Nevada books, which are far inferior to offshore books because their primary goal is to maintain the status quo, which is to not lose, rather than take the risks inherent in being very profitable.\u00a0However, the DraftKings books have offered some interesting innovations [LINK] that could attract bettors, and are acting aggressively to expand their market share. This is a move in the right direction and I hope it spurs further innovations.<\/span><\/p>\n

The big fly in the ointment for the success of\u00a0US books is vigorish. State politicians, sports leagues, and big-money investors have visions of a massive money well and are fighting over the buckets. Much of this hysteria is based on faulty thinking. Sports books in Nevada operate on thin margins. To create the massive envisioned profits in new legal states, the betting public would have to accept a higher vig than is standard now. I don’t think this is sustainable, especially if offshore books continue to operate.<\/span><\/p>\n

If a major federal effort is made to shut down access to offshore books (which is questionable), and juice is raised to -115 or higher, serious bettors will either move their operations to countries where they can access offshore books, or simply quit because their profit opportunity is vastly reduced and not worth the effort. I had a talk with someone in the business today and he brought up something I\u2019ve been pondering: If the heat on offshore books is intense, bookies might go back to taking bets over the phone. Welcome to the \u201980s! If offshore books remain accessible to Americans, bettors will flock to the lower-vig offshore books and US books will suffer greatly.<\/span><\/p>\n

One thing that will be interesting is if offshore books are denied access to data from the sports leagues for not paying the fee. If they have to pay, they might have to increase their vig, too and smaller books will be forced out of business.<\/span><\/p>\n

The sports betting environment in the U.S. at present is like the wild west and will take several years to stabilize. Many cans of worms have been opened. When it all plays out, there will be winners and losers on both sides of the counter. I have a feeling the winners on the book side will be those who develop innovations, or market disruptions that attract veteran bettors and entice new ones.<\/span><\/p>\n\"Facebook\"<\/a>\"twitter\"<\/a>\"youtube\"<\/a>\"instagram\"<\/a>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The SCOTUS decision legalizing sports betting on a state-by-state basis has unleashed a firestorm of activity and chaos. How this is going to play out over the next few years is anyone’s guess, but here are some factors and scenarios to consider: I originally thought that the books in newly legal states would merely be […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false},"categories":[19],"tags":[286,174],"yoast_head":"\nWild West in Sports Betting - Gambling With An Edge<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/wild-west-in-sports-betting\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Wild West in Sports Betting - Gambling With An Edge\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The SCOTUS decision legalizing sports betting on a state-by-state basis has unleashed a firestorm of activity and chaos. 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