{"id":7516,"date":"2017-09-12T09:20:55","date_gmt":"2017-09-12T16:20:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/?p=7516"},"modified":"2017-09-12T09:20:55","modified_gmt":"2017-09-12T16:20:55","slug":"im-glad-didnt-hit-revisited","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/im-glad-didnt-hit-revisited\/","title":{"rendered":"I\u2019m Glad I Didn\u2019t Hit It — Revisited"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Undoing Project <\/em>is a recent book by Michael Lewis (author of Moneyball, Liar\u2019s Poker, and The Blind Side, <\/em>among others). It follows the careers of two Israeli psychologists, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, as they break new ground and basically invent the field of Behavioral Economics. I\u2019ve written about these guys before and one man they greatly inspired — Dan Ariely.<\/p>\n

Today I want to talk about the Undoing Project itself and the psychology of regret. Had I understood these concepts better many years ago, I would have never written a particular article that I now intend to revise.<\/p>\n

When somebody wants to \u201cundo\u201d something, they usually think about relatively easy ways it could be accomplished. For example, Andy is driving and reaches an intersection just at the point where it\u2019s a very close call whether to speed up and go through the intersection when the signal is orange or slow to a stop and wait for the next green. Andy\u2019s decision may be the same or different from yours, but all drivers have occasionally experienced this sort of thing.<\/p>\n

Regardless of whether Andy sped up or slowed down, let\u2019s assume that at the next intersection, his car was sideswiped by another car which caused considerable damage, although thankfully Andy came out okay.<\/p>\n

If Andy wanted to think about how this could have been undone, his mind would naturally go back to the speed-up-or-slow-down decision he had just made and conclude that if he had done the opposite, he would never have been sideswiped. He would not, typically, think that if the other driver had been killed the week before in a drive by shooting, then Andy would have avoided the accident. People just don\u2019t think that way — but frankly, either \u201csolution\u201d would have kept Andy\u2019s car from being crumpled.<\/p>\n

When I read about this, I thought back to an article I had written perhaps 20 years ago. Seems like I was playing $1 10-7 Double Bonus at the Orleans and a woman sitting nearby commented, \u201cI\u2019m glad I didn\u2019t hit it.\u201d She was playing only four coins and had been dealt A\u2660 K\u2660 Q\u2660 J\u2660 7\u2666<\/span>. She threw the 7 away and ended up with a worthless 6\u2665<\/span>.<\/p>\n

I commented that if she had hit the royal, it would have been worth $1,000 rather than the nothing she received. I thought she was basically an idiot for preferring $0 to $1,000.<\/p>\n

The thing is, though, that if she had hit the royal, she would have felt terrible that she hadn\u2019t been playing max coins at that time. She would have seen it as a $3,000 loss rather than a $1,000 gain. The pain of losing $3,000 (even though it\u2019s all in her mind) was bigger than the pleasure of actually winning $1,000.<\/p>\n

Since I had studied economics before Kahneman and Tversky came along, I \u201cknew\u201d that having $1,000 was better than having $0. There was just no other way to look at it insofar as I was concerned. This woman was being very foolish.<\/p>\n

Now, I realize that this woman isn\u2019t alone in her thought processes. When she wished to \u201cundo\u201d the results of a \u201cmere\u201d $1,000 jackpot, she normally would think that, \u201cI should have been playing five coins.\u201d She \u201cknew better\u201d and now was being punished for only playing four coins. The pain she would feel would be very real to her.<\/p>\n

I, of course, would have recommended she play one coin or five — depending on bankroll considerations, but never four. Still, that ship had sailed and she bet four coins. Although I still feel betting four coins per hand was foolish, I have more empathy for her \u201cI\u2019m glad I didn\u2019t hit it\u201d statement.<\/p>\n\"Facebook\"<\/a>\"twitter\"<\/a>\"youtube\"<\/a>\"instagram\"<\/a>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Undoing Project is a recent book by Michael Lewis (author of Moneyball, Liar\u2019s Poker, and The Blind Side, among others). It follows the careers of two Israeli psychologists, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, as they break new ground and basically invent the field of Behavioral Economics. I\u2019ve written about these guys before and one […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6498,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false},"categories":[2,3],"tags":[220,196],"yoast_head":"\nI\u2019m Glad I Didn\u2019t Hit It - Revisited - Gambling With An Edge<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/im-glad-didnt-hit-revisited\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"I\u2019m Glad I Didn\u2019t Hit It - Revisited - Gambling With An Edge\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Undoing Project is a recent book by Michael Lewis (author of Moneyball, Liar\u2019s Poker, and The Blind Side, among others). 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