A square-dancing friend, Sal, was telling me how happy he was that he finally learned to play Full Pay Deuces Wild. He had studied the Winner’s Guide, practiced on Video Poker for Winners, and in the last two months had averaged about $30 per hour in profit on about 5-6 hours of play per week on the quarter game. He had pictures of three $1,000 royals on his cell phone that he wanted to show and have me admire.
Using this source of extra income, he had made a commitment to move his girlfriend, Betty, to Vegas from out-of-state. “I can finally afford it,” Sal told me. “I never realized I had what it takes to be a successful gambler.”
“Hold on,” I told him. “Full Pay Deuces Wild is worth somewhere in the range of $6-$10 per hour, depending on how fast you play and the benefits the casino gives you. There will be periods where your results exceed this for relatively short periods of time and there will be months in a row where you lose, lose, lose.”
“You’ve been going through what we call positive variance for the past few months,” I told Sal. “It won’t last. Guaranteed. It’s even possible you haven’t learned the game sufficiently well to be a favorite at all. Or maybe only a $2 an hour favorite.
“Having a two-month winning streak is no indication of whether you are playing competently or not. On a hand like W W 7♠ 6♥ 8♠, where the W (for wild card) indicates a deuce, good players hold WW78. Had somebody just held the deuces, he might have scored despite the 1-in-360 odds against him and ended up with four deuces this particular time. That would have been profitable in the short run, but over time that play is a costly one. There are numerous examples in this game where the wrong hold can work this time, so just looking at results over the short run gives you the wrong conclusion.
“If you need the extra $150 or so per week to bring your girlfriend to town and have her stay here, you better find an additional source of income, tell her not to come, or let her know that she’s going to have to pitch in financially to make this work.
“Plus, you need a bankroll of probably $4,000 or preferably more on hand just to cover the swings of this game. This is not money you need for rent, food, or anything else. This is money AFTER you’ve paid off all your credit card, any expenses related to her move, and all other debt. It’s just a reserve because the negative variance times are definitely coming.”
Sal sighed and said that talking to me today had been a real downer. He preferred to think positively and the negative picture I presented was not pleasant at all.
I shrugged. “I’d rather tell you what I think is the truth rather than to paint a rosy picture that won’t come to fruition. I experienced what they call Gambler’s Ruin almost 35 years ago, It was no fun. And now you’re a senior citizen, it’ll be even harder to recoup if it happens to you.”
They were starting another dance and Sal left to find a partner. During the next break between dances he came back to me.
“Betty doesn’t even think gambling is a good idea. I haven’t told her yet that gambling is what allowed me to pay for her ticket.”
“You aren’t going to like my response,” I told Sal, “but if you go out and spend the money right away whenever you hit a royal flush, you will never accumulate the necessary bankroll. There will be times when you go to the casino for 5-6 hours and come back and have to tell Betty you lost $400 or more. That’s merely going to reinforce her general attitude that gambling is bad news. She probably won’t believe that you’re playing a game where you actually have the advantage.”
“So what should I do?” he asked. “You make it sound like it’s going to be a disaster.”
“I can’t make the decisions for you,” I told him. “I’ve never met Betty. I don’t know how flexible she is about staying with you if you continue to gamble. I don’t know how employable either one of you are or how good you are at getting by. I don’t know what your habits are and how expensive they are. All I do know is that if you are expecting Full Pay Deuces Wild for quarters to continue to generate $30 per hour, it simply won’t happen.”
“I guess Betty and I are going to have a long phone call tonight and discuss things” Sal told me.
That’s probably a good start.
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I particularly enjoyed the most recent set of columns in which all pertains to having the right realistic perspective of the game. I liked how you approached the final column of the year as a realistic conversation between yourself and Sal. It was a completely honest one without any sugarcoating, that is what a good friend should do.
Happy Holidays to you Mr. Dancer! Looking for what you have in store for 2017.
I recall attending one of your Barona classes in So. Cal. I had asked what was a good bankroll for 9/6 DDB quarters and you told me, “4-5 RF’s worth.” I’ve tried to use this as a rule of thumb even though it always isn’t a reality, hence I play more nickels and dimes than quarters. Bad paytables but it fits my bankroll also, I play a bunch of single line/ single coin quarters too. I won’t snivel at $62.50 for two bits worth of wager RF. Thanks for all of your helpful hints. Those naysayers of yours don’t appreciate how much study you’ve invested to achieve an edge.
Excellent article! I just returned from my first trip to Vegas. Wife and I stayed at 4 queens and flew from home for 24.00 total after using some of her million miles. Lucky for me the time away when she is traveling pays off with perks like this. We brought 2,000 with us. My original intent was to play some blackjack and craps. Having never been in a casino in my life, I was awestruck by the noise of the people, machines etc This sent both of us into sensory overload. We decided to time shift our sleep pattern and go down to the floor after midnight. Glad we did, most of the noise had subsided to a comfortable level. I did not like the table odds 6/5 nor the buy in and bet levels so I decided to play Deuces wild. I have looked at videos on U Tube and played and studied quite a bit on holds and discards. I did hit a WQWWQ one time and it was exciting. also, a couple W Royals as well. When we got home I had way more money in my wallet that I left with so it was a good trip. I do realize I was on that upward curve of the hits a coming and I can say that I do want to go back as does the wife. I have already cautioned her that we kicked butt this time but next time we could get ours handed to us. I do have 6 months before we travel back to Vegas to study and use the software I am purchasing this month (Jan 2017) to help me increase the level of my knowledge. “W W 7♠ 6♥ 8♠, indicates a deuce, good players hold WW78” < I was more temped to hold the 7 6 8 but will adhere to WW78 on the simulator and see the difference it makes as I take your word as gospel as I know slow and steady is better than 110 mph. thank you for some awesome insights. CV
There are many Deuces Wild pay schedules — and the strategy varies tremendously among them. Four Queens definitely does NOT have Full Pay Deuces Wild. The particular hand you referred to would be played the same — but such things such as do you hold one pair or two when you’re dealt two pair? — or from a pair of 7s and four hearts do you hold the 7s or the hearts?
Using the Deuces Wild strategy for a different pay schedule is far more expensive than using the wrong pay schedule for most other games.
Hi Bob,
Been listening to your and Richards’ podcasts and reading your blogs. Thanks for all the juicy tidbits and the professional insight. (Am enjoying your guests as well.)
I don’t play video poker or any kind of slots or pit games. I play live low stakes poker. I am the owner/operator of a seasonal business up North and reside in Vegas during the winter months. Other than playing poker and preparing the occasional meal which I eat over the sink? I find myself bored out of my tree, more often than not.
That said? I learned how to ballroom dance when I was a kid and worked in a Country Music tavern “back in the day” where I kinda sorta learned how to 2-step. I haven’t danced in a great many years though…
I would love to find a “dance club” here in Vegas in order to learn some new moves, meet some new people, and alleviate some of this incessant boredom I’m experiencing of late.
Any tips in that regard?
Glad I found your podcasts and blogs and many thanks in advance for your reply!
Kind regards.