By Brother William [Editor’s note: Brother William’s article about fluctuations in your blackjack bankroll when flat betting and playing basic strategy have a new relevance for players who are taking advantage of online casino bonuses or loss rebate plays. If you are a basic strategy player for any reason, study the article and chart below to get a handle on the normal fluctuations you can expect in your blackjack bankroll. –Arnold Snyder]<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n In the June 1995 issue of Blackjack Forum,<\/em> I suggested that it would be helpful to basic strategy blackjack players to print detailed risk charts indicating standard deviation (fluctuation) for flat betting when playing basic strategy. I think there is a danger for players who are milking comps and promotions in not understanding these risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In an attempt to remedy this problem, I have created an all-purpose risk chart for the basic strategy player. I hope basic strategy blackjack players will study this chart carefully.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Assumptions:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n 1. House advantage over the basic strategy player is 0.54% (which would correspond precisely to a 6-deck shoe game with Strip rules, but works pretty well for most games available anywhere, as the house edge is usually set around \u00bd% over the basic strategy player).<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2. 60 hands per hour of play. (This is pretty close to what you\u2019ll average with a full table.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3. Flat betting 1 unit per hand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Regardless of what your unit size is, you may use this chart simply by multiplying. If you were playing $1 per hand, then all of the chart entries in units can simply be read right from the chart in dollars and cents. Example: betting $1 per hand for 16 hours of play, as per the assumed game conditions, you would have an expected loss of $5.18. You will be within one standard deviation (SD) of this expectation 68% of the time, which translates to an actual result between a loss of $39.27 and a win of $28.90. You will be within three standard deviations 99.7% of the time, which translates to an actual result between a loss of $117.80 and a win of $86.69.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Using a $100 betting unit, if you intend to play a total of 16 hours of basic strategy in this game and you\u2019re willing to accept a risk level of three SD\u2019s, simply move the decimal point two places to the right. You would expect to lose $518.00, but your actual result 99.7% of the time would fall between a loss of $11,780.00 and a win of $8,669.00.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So, if you can stand the thought of losing somewhere around $12,000 every rare once in a while in 16 hours of play, you can afford to flat bet this game with black chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The charts are very easy to use with flat bets of $1, $10, $100 and $1000, because you simply have to move the decimal point. For flat bets of $5 or $25 or whatever, just use a pocket calculator.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Note that the entry in the \u201cexpected loss\u201d column can be used to estimate what you are actually \u201cpaying\u201d for any comps your action buys.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Again, I hope any basic strategy blackjack players out there will study this chart carefully. The bankroll you save my be your own. Good luck! \u2660<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Blackjack Betting and Risk of Ruin for the Basic Strategy Player By Brother William(From Blackjack Forum Vol XV #3, September 1995)\u00a9 1995 Blackjack Forum [Editor’s note: Brother William’s article about fluctuations in your blackjack bankroll when flat betting and playing basic strategy have a new relevance for players who are taking advantage of online casino bonuses or […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":55,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[631,1],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/123134"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/55"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=123134"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/123134\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=123134"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=123134"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=123134"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
(From Blackjack Forum<\/em> Vol XV #3, September 1995)
\u00a9 1995 Blackjack Forum<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nHow to Use the Blackjack Basic Strategy Betting Risk Chart<\/h5>\n\n\n\n
Blackjack Basic Strategy Risk Chart<\/strong><\/td><\/tr> # hours<\/strong><\/td> expected
loss (units)<\/strong><\/td>SD %<\/strong><\/td> SD levels<\/strong><\/td> loss
(units)<\/strong><\/td>win
(units)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>1<\/td> 0.32<\/td> 14.2<\/td> 1 68%
2 95%
3 99.7%
4 100%<\/td>8.84
17.69
26.53
35.39<\/td>8.20
16.39
24.59
32.79<\/td><\/tr>2<\/td> 0.65<\/td> 10.0<\/td> 1 68%
2 95%
3 99.7%
4 100%<\/td>12.70
25.40
38.09
50.79<\/td>11.40
22.80
34.21
45.60<\/td><\/tr>3<\/td> 0.97<\/td> 8.20<\/td> 1 68%
2 95%
3 99.7%
4 100%<\/td>15.73
31.46
47.19
62.92<\/td>13.79
27.57
41.36
55.14<\/td><\/tr>4<\/td> 1.30<\/td> 7.10<\/td> 1 68%
2 95%
3 99.7%
4 100%<\/td>18.34
36.67
55.01
73.35<\/td>15.75
31.49
47.24
62.98<\/td><\/tr>8<\/td> 2.59<\/td> 5.02<\/td> 1 68%
2 95%
3 99.7%
4 100%<\/td>26.69
53.38
80.08
106.77<\/td>21.51
43.02
64.52
86.03<\/td><\/tr>12<\/td> 3.89<\/td> 4.10<\/td> 1 68%
2 95%
3 99.7%
4 100%<\/td>33.40
66.81
100.21
133.62<\/td>25.63
51.26
76.88
102.51<\/td><\/tr>16<\/td> 5.18<\/td> 3.55<\/td> 1 68%
2 95%
3 99.7%
4 100%<\/td>39.27
78.53
117.80
157.07<\/td>28.90
57.80
86.69
115.59<\/td><\/tr>20<\/td> 6.48<\/td> 3.18<\/td> 1 68%
2 95%
3 99.7%
4 100%<\/td>44.59
89.17
133.76
178.34<\/td>31.63
63.25
94.88
126.50<\/td><\/tr>24<\/td> 7.78<\/td> 2.90<\/td> 1 68%
2 95%
3 99.7%
4 100%<\/td>49.52
99.04
148.55
198.07<\/td>33.97
67.93
101.90
135.86<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n