{"id":52062,"date":"2018-05-15T09:54:52","date_gmt":"2018-05-15T17:54:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/gambling-with-an-edge\/?p=52062"},"modified":"2023-08-24T15:03:45","modified_gmt":"2023-08-24T23:03:45","slug":"even-possible-play-perfectly","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/blog\/even-possible-play-perfectly\/","title":{"rendered":"Is It Even Possible to Play Perfectly?"},"content":{"rendered":"

In a recent comment posted on <\/span>www.gamblingwithanedge.com<\/span><\/a> about my March 27 \u201cHe Screwed Me!\u201d column, Liz wrote, in part, <\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cAnd, mathematically speaking, we can never be 100% sure that even Dancer always has the edge. I’m willing to believe he knows all the maxEV strategies cold including penalty cards, but that’s not the same thing as playing in a casino environment and never making a mistake.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

To that I respond: \u201cApples and oranges!\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

If Liz wants to suggest that sometimes I don\u2019t know strategies perfectly or sometimes mis-key or not carefully examine all the options before I make a play, I\u2019ll plead guilty. I still play at a 99.9% accuracy level, probably higher, but that number is gradually lowering as I advance more into my senior years.<\/span><\/p>\n

But not playing with the maximum possible edge is not the same as not playing with an edge. Let\u2019s say I calculate a play is worth 100.4% but I only play at the 99.9% accuracy level. That lowers the return to 100.3% — but it\u2019s still an edge.<\/span><\/p>\n

A far more likely source of possibly playing without an edge is making the wrong assumptions. If I assume a drawing is worth 0.5% and it\u2019s actually worth only 0.05%, that could turn what I think is a play-with-an-edge into one where the house has the advantage. <\/span><\/p>\n

Usually, I won\u2019t ever know for sure what a drawing is worth. Estimating how many actual tickets are in a drum is tough. Estimating how many virtual tickets are in a virtual drum is tougher. All I will know is whether or not I got called THIS TIME. That\u2019s not really useful information insofar as what the drawing is worth.<\/span><\/p>\n

Over time, if I learn that when I\u2019ve played $100,000 coin-in at this casino I\u2019ve been called 40% of the time, then it\u2019s easier to make a reasonable estimate. But you need a lot of data points. Having friends who play at about the same level as you and who share information with you is useful.<\/span><\/p>\n

But since it takes time to gather this information, for some period you\u2019re \u201cflying blind.\u201d You can make a \u201cbest guess\u201d without a whole lot of confidence in that number. This can lead to you playing a game where you think you have the edge, but after you collect more data, you\u2019ll find out you don\u2019t.<\/span><\/p>\n

How much is a slot tournament worth? You can get some idea based on the number of entrants and the total prize pool — but you frequently don\u2019t know until you\u2019re already there. A video poker tournament is different. I\u2019ll triple or quadruple the average prize simply because I can play faster and make better decisions than many of the other entrants. I\u2019m still going to need to hit some hands to win, but I have a better chance of doing that than many other players.<\/span><\/p>\n

Inherent in most plays is the assumption that you\u2019re going to be getting so much cash or free play in the mail. If you play the same amount every month and get the same mailer each month, it\u2019s easy to put that into percentages. If your play varies and your mailers do too, it\u2019s tougher. You usually don\u2019t know if your mailer is based on three months, six months, or who-knows-what.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sometimes there\u2019s a \u201cwin too much and you get cut off\u201d factor in the mailers. If you think you might be approaching that limit you basically have too choices — play like hell until it\u2019s over or stop playing for three months or so which will dilute your wins-per-month.<\/span><\/p>\n

When the SLS opened, they had way-too-loose high limit video poker. I played $25 10-6-40 Double Double Bonus, which is a 99.96% game, plus slot club, plus comps, plus mailers, and I got $3,500 show-up money because I had an offer that size from Caesars Entertainment and SLS was matching offers. My score went up and down, of course. When I was behind $30,000, I felt as though I should keep playing because I was likely to get great mailers. Then I hit two $20,000 jackpots and two $10,000 jackpots in short order and I was now up. Still, the score was close enough to even, given I was playing a volatile game at $125 per hand. When the royal came, putting me ahead $120,000, I knew it was time to quit. I figured I wasn\u2019t going to get any mailer — so why continue to play? Even with a 0.2% slot club, the edge was pretty small for such a volatile game. I still had an edge in this game, but the edge was too small to interest me.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sometimes you just plain have no way to guestimate how much each item is worth. \u00a0But if you\u2019re close enough to 100%, have a couple of drawings, some mailers, and maybe reach a higher tier level, you can make a reasonable assumption that you have the edge. Will you always be correct? No. But usually. There\u2019s a lot to be said for the feel that experienced players obtain over time.<\/span><\/p>\n

So, when Liz says sometimes I\u2019m not positive I\u2019m playing with an edge, I\u2019d have to agree that could occasionally happen when one of my guesstimates is way off. But it\u2019s extremely unlikely that I\u2019m playing at a disadvantage because I\u2019m making significant playing errors. If my total edge were small enough so that a 0.01% playing error could take me from positive to negative, I would have considered that unplayable to begin with. There are quarter Deuces Wild players in Las Vegas who play long hours for a game that is worth less than $10 per hour to them. Good for them. But I need a bigger hourly potential to jump in.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In a recent comment posted on www.gamblingwithanedge.com about my March 27 \u201cHe Screwed Me!\u201d column, Liz wrote, in part, \u201cAnd, mathematically speaking, we can never be 100% sure that even Dancer always has the edge. I’m willing to believe he knows all the maxEV strategies cold including penalty cards, but that’s not the same thing […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15763,"featured_media":6498,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[601,558,557],"tags":[561,585],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52062"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15763"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=52062"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52062\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=52062"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=52062"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=52062"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}