{"id":865410,"date":"2024-09-10T09:48:50","date_gmt":"2024-09-10T16:48:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/?p=865410"},"modified":"2024-09-10T09:48:54","modified_gmt":"2024-09-10T16:48:54","slug":"sometimes-you-have-to-guesstimate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/blog\/sometimes-you-have-to-guesstimate\/","title":{"rendered":"Sometimes You Have to Guesstimate"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The big key to winning at video poker and other gambling games is to only play when you have an advantage. Sometimes, though, it\u2019s hard to know whether you have the advantage or not &#8212; or even how to measure that advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Casino drawings provide one example. The casino agrees to give away such and such prizes. If you knew how many tickets were going to be in the drum, how many tickets you were going to end up having, and the value of the prizes, you could figure out what your EV was in the drawing. Factoring in how much coin-in it cost you to earn that many tickets and you can figure out your percentage return. Even if you could calculate it at 0.2%, it comes with a high variance. Usually, you don\u2019t get drawn. Occasionally you do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But you don\u2019t usually know how many tickets are going to be in the drum, nor the exact number of tickets you\u2019re going to end up with. And sometimes you don\u2019t even know how much the prize is worth. Cash or free play is pretty straightforward. But what about if the prize is a car? Sometimes there\u2019s a cash option, at 75% or 80% of retail, but not always. It might be a specific vehicle, or it may be a voucher for $25,000 (or any other amount) at such and such dealership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What if it\u2019s a Chevrolet dealership and you hate Chevies? Or if it\u2019s a Toyota dealership and you practice a \u201cBuying American\u201d philosophy? Hard to put a number on these things.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What about comps? Some casinos offer you a certain amount of comp dollars, but these are hard to value as well. There are usually a limited number of outlets at which you can spend your comp dollars. If you get $100 to spend at the gift shop, if there is nothing there you want or what is there is greatly overpriced compared to what you can buy it for elsewhere, that comp is hardly worth $100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You may earn enough comps to eat at one of the gourmet rooms, but what if this isn\u2019t the kind of food you enjoy or is on your diet? Even if it is food you enjoy, if you have $200 to spend (eat it or lose it), you\u2019ll probably use most of it up even if your typical dinner costs far less than that. You might decide a $40 tip is warranted on this meal while your typical dinner with tip might be $50. Is this comp worth $200 or $10?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The South Point casino regularly runs promotions where you play a certain amount and earn one or more spins where each spin is worth between $5 and $100. (The exact rules vary each time, but are often similar to this.) If you don\u2019t know how much average spin is, how are you going to put a value on the promotion?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For me, since I play approximately a breakeven game at the South Point (99.7%+ games and a 0.3% slot club) before the promotion and mailers, any additional free play is welcome, but not needed to justify playing. I\u2019ll come in on the days you can get the spins (if I\u2019m in town) and collect the extra money, but the promotions aren\u2019t sufficient for me to play extra. Whereas unlimited double points just might be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I do not put a value on room comps, although I definitely use them when out of town. If I weren\u2019t there, I wouldn\u2019t need a room, and I can\u2019t \u201ccash in\u201d the value of the room. (Or, rather, I don\u2019t. Years ago, I sometimes sold room nights, but not anymore.) A suite is appreciated over a regular room, but if the game isn\u2019t more than 100% without the suite, I stay away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Vegas and many other cities, there are professional sports teams and some casinos offer you tickets to the events &#8212; often premium seats with amenities. Were I someone who would buy tickets to these events, this is a comp worth money and I would conceivably play a slightly-under 100% game to score the tickets. Since I basically have a \u201cI\u2019ll take the tickets if they are offered, but I wouldn\u2019t go out and buy them\u201d attitude, I don\u2019t factor this into whether a game is playable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sometimes there is a jewelry or some other giveaway that attracts Bonnie\u2019s eye. I\u2019ll play extra for that. I don\u2019t put an exact value on \u201ckeeping Bonnie happy,\u201d but it is definitely something worth investing in. So I do.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The big key to winning at video poker and other gambling games is to only play when you have an advantage. Sometimes, though, it\u2019s hard to know whether you have the advantage or not &#8212; or even how to measure that advantage. Casino drawings provide one example. The casino agrees to give away such and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15763,"featured_media":843442,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[601],"tags":[561,585],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/spinach-2.png?fit=500%2C300&ssl=1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/865410"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15763"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=865410"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/865410\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":865411,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/865410\/revisions\/865411"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/843442"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=865410"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=865410"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=865410"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}