{"id":877477,"date":"2025-02-21T13:28:22","date_gmt":"2025-02-21T21:28:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/?p=877477"},"modified":"2025-02-23T06:59:42","modified_gmt":"2025-02-23T14:59:42","slug":"fearless-oscar-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/blog\/fearless-oscar-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"Fearless Oscar forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"I&#039;M STILL HERE | Official Trailer (2025)\" width=\"980\" height=\"551\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/gDunV808Yf4?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>If you feared<\/strong> an <em>Emilia Perez<\/em> sweep after its staggering 13 <strong>Academy Award<\/strong> nominations, fret not. This year&#8217;s Oscars looks like it&#8217;s going to be one of those years where there&#8217;s a little something for everybody, unlike last year&#8217;s <em>Oppenheimer<\/em> juggernaut. Indeed, <em>Emilia Perez<\/em> has gone into a spectacular odds eclipse and will be hard-pressed to take home more than one or two little gold men. Instead, in a moment of head-shaking WTF, the odds-on favorite for <strong>Best Picture<\/strong> is &#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p><em>Anora<\/em>?!?!? Yup, this art-house version of <em>Pretty Woman <\/em>is -330 at <strong>DraftKings<\/strong>, rivaled only by <em>The Brutalist<\/em> (+400). However, in an interesting development, <strong>Edward Berger<\/strong>&#8216;s <em>Conclave<\/em> has snuck down to +700. <em>Conclave<\/em> has been the sleeper of the year, a surprise hit with the grownup audience. Who knew that selecting a pope would prove to be such hot stuff? (BTW, get well, <strong>Pope Francis<\/strong>. We need you.) Nobody else has a prayer. <strong>Should win:<\/strong> <em>I&#8217;m Still Here<\/em> (+8,000) or <em>The<\/em> <em>Substance<\/em> (+10,000). <strong>Will win:<\/strong> <em>Anora<\/em>. Sigh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Demi Moore Wins Best Female Actor \u2013 Motion Picture \u2013 Musical\/Comedy | 82nd Annual Golden Globes\" width=\"980\" height=\"551\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/9SvW3XJP5Ic?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Actress: <\/strong>Playing a sex goddess who looks back in anger, <strong>Demi Moore<\/strong> has been enjoying a justifiable triumph in a art-imitates-life role. But at -150 she&#8217;s got only a tentative lead on newcomer <strong>Mikey Madison<\/strong> (<em>Anora,<\/em> +120). If you fancy a huge upset, the buzz has been deservedly great for <strong>Fernanda Torres<\/strong> as the wife of a political prisoner in <strong>Walter Salles<\/strong>&#8216; <em>I&#8217;m Still Here<\/em>. At +1,400 she&#8217;s the prize amongst long shots. After toxic social-media texts came to light, <em>Emilia Perez<\/em> protagonist <strong>Karla Sofia Gascon <\/strong>(+3,500) is shit out of luck. <strong>Should win:<\/strong> Torres. <strong>Will win:<\/strong> Moore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Actor:<\/strong> Academy voters are reportedly too long in the tooth to last through all 3.5 hours of T<em>he Brutalist<\/em>, the pikers. But its <strong>Adrien Brody<\/strong> (-280) is the current favorite for Best Actor and rightly so: <em>The Brutalist<\/em> is Brody and Brody is <em>The Brutalist<\/em>. His one serious rival is mumbling <strong>Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet<\/strong> (<em>A Complete Unknow<\/em>n, +175), although Chalamet is not worthy to carry Brody&#8217;s overcoat. Still, as an oblique thank-you for fattening Tinseltown&#8217;s coffers twice in one year, Chalamet might nab the castrated statuette. <strong>Sebastian Stan<\/strong> (<em>The Apprentice<\/em>) is a hopeless long shot at +2,800. Why? The Academy is NEVER going to give someone a prize for playing <strong>Donald Trump<\/strong>. &#8216;Nuff said. <strong>Should win:<\/strong> Brody. <strong>Will win:<\/strong> Chalamet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Emilia P\u00e9rez | Official Teaser | Netflix\" width=\"980\" height=\"551\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/t3HupHq8-eE?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Supporting Actress:<\/strong> The runaway favorite here is <strong>Zoe Salda\u00f1a<\/strong> (<em>Emilia Perez<\/em>, -1,400). We love Salda\u00f1a but her inclusion here has been decried as &#8220;category fraud.&#8221; If that works against her, the likeliest beneficiary is stick figure <strong>Ariana Grande<\/strong> (<em>Wicked<\/em>, +600). Giving Grande an Oscar would be a traveshamockery of the first water but stupider things have happened. (Well, AS stupid.) We&#8217;re going the pessimist route here, as no one ever went broke underestimating the Academy. <strong>Should win:<\/strong> <strong>Monica Barbaro<\/strong> (<em>A Complete Unknown<\/em>, +2,500). <strong>Will win: <\/strong>Grande. <strong>Missing in Action: <\/strong><em>The Substance<\/em>&#8216;s <strong>Margaret Qualley<\/strong> (not nominated).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Supporting Actor<\/strong>: Giving a Culkin spawn an Academy Award seems like a harbinger of the Apocalypse but <strong>Kieran Culkin<\/strong> is the prohibitive, -2,000 favorite for <em>A Real Pain<\/em>, which has drawn for him\u2014no kidding\u2014comparisons to <strong>Marlon<\/strong> <strong>Brando<\/strong>. Egad! <strong>Edward Norton<\/strong> (<em>A Complete Unknown<\/em>, +900) has an outside shot for his luminous portrayal of <strong>Pete Seeger<\/strong>. (A good one too, having once seen Seeger in concert.) Participation trophies for everyone else. <strong>Should win: Guy Pearce<\/strong> (<em>The Brutalist<\/em>: +1,600).<strong> Will win:<\/strong> Culkin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"The Brutalist | Official Teaser HD | A24\" width=\"980\" height=\"551\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/6d7yU379Ur0?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Director:<\/strong> Perhaps self-consciously striving to make a masterpiece is working against <strong>Brady Corbet<\/strong> (<em>The Brutalist<\/em>, +100). Despite his precarious, -140 lead, <strong>Sean Baker<\/strong> (Anora) seems locked in after his <strong>Directors Guild<\/strong> win. <strong>Should win: Coralie Fargeat<\/strong> (<em>The Substance<\/em>, +2,500). <strong>Will win:<\/strong> Baker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Original Screenplay:<\/strong> If the Academy truly valued originality, this would go hands down to <em>The Substance <\/em>(+500). However, <em>Anora<\/em> is favored. Again (-500). <em>A Real Pain<\/em> (+800) has an outside chance. <strong>Should win:<\/strong> <em>The Substance<\/em>. <strong>Will win:<\/strong> <em>Anora<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Adapted Screenplay:<\/strong> This is <em>Conclave<\/em>&#8216;s consolation prize (-1,100), its award for doing much better than expected at the box office. Besides, the Academy likes Edward Berger (he of the <em>All Quiet on the Western Front<\/em> remake). <em>Nickel Boys<\/em> (+1,000), <em>Emilia Perez<\/em> (+1,000) and <em>A Complete Unknown<\/em> (+1,200) appear to be canceling each other out, and nobody can work up much enthusiasm for <em>Sing Sing<\/em> (+2,000). Should win: <em>Conclave<\/em>. Will win: <em>Conclave<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Visual Effects:<\/strong> <em>Dune, Part Two<\/em> (-900) appears to have this nailed down and deservedly so. Nothing else we saw came close in that respect, especially not the sub-video game rendering of a chimp in <em>Better Man<\/em> (+2,500). And why is <em>Alien:<\/em> <em>Romulus<\/em> (+3,500) even here when its VFX had to be retooled for home video? (Too bad they didn&#8217;t retool that whole picture.) <strong>Should win:<\/strong> <em>Dune<\/em>. <strong>Will win:<\/strong> <em>Dune<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Cinematography: <\/strong><em>The Brutalist<\/em> (-310) is a puzzling favorite here. Heavy weather was made of it being shot in <strong>VistaVision<\/strong>, the greatest of all widescreen processes. But it was lensed in a soft-edged, close-in, shallow-focused style that negated VistaVision&#8217;s extraordinary depth of field. Perverse. <strong>Should win:<\/strong> <em>Dune, Part Two<\/em> (+330). <strong>Will win:<\/strong> <em>The Brutalist<\/em>. Because gimmicks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"CONCLAVE - Official Trailer 2 [HD] - Only In Theaters October 25\" width=\"980\" height=\"551\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/t915aZmyEBg?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Editing: <\/strong>If <em>Conclave<\/em> wins (-150), it could portend a massive Best Picture upset, as the best-edited film usually takes the top prize. Which may be why <em>Anora<\/em> is hanging tough at +150. <em>The Brutalist<\/em> (+600) is also in the running. Interminable <em>Wicked<\/em> (+1,400) and not-exactly-concise <em>Emilia Perez<\/em> (+2,800) are not. Indeed, nominating sluggish <em>Wicked<\/em> for best editing may be someone&#8217;s idea of a sick joke. <strong>Should win:<\/strong> <em>The Brutalist<\/em>. <strong>Will win:<\/strong> <em>Anora<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Costuming:<\/strong> Unsurprisingly, the ostentatiously costumed <em>Wicked<\/em> (-1,400) is way ahead. But the cassocks and wimples of <em>Conclave<\/em> are in the running at +600. <strong>Should win: <\/strong><em>Gladiator II<\/em> (+3,500). <strong>Will win: <\/strong><em>Wicked<\/em>, because the Academy has to give it <em>something<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Makeup &amp; Hairstyling: <\/strong><em>The Substance<\/em> (-1,400). If you&#8217;ve seen it you&#8217;ll know why. Should win, will win. Nobody else need compete. Next!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Production Design:<\/strong> The in-your-face, &#8220;Look, Ma, I&#8217;m designing!&#8221; stylings of <em>Wicked<\/em> (-475) will probably prevail over the subtler <em>The Brutalist<\/em> (+600).  Too bad. <em>Conclave<\/em> (+700) might sneak through here, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Original Score:<\/strong> <em>The Brutalist<\/em> (-360) ought to take this home but don&#8217;t sleep on <em>Wicked<\/em> (+1,600) for the simple reason that simple-minded Academy voters will probably think they&#8217;re voting for the songs rather than the music than came in between. See also: <em>The Little Mermaid<\/em> and <em>Beauty and the Beast<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Elton John: Never Too Late | Official Trailer | Disney+\" width=\"980\" height=\"551\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/fQGf_nJ1E9w?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Original Song:<\/strong> Damned if we can remember ANY of the songs from <em>Emilia Perez<\/em>, so we don&#8217;t give a rat&#8217;s fart whether the award goes to &#8220;El Mal&#8221; (-310) or the comparably anodyne &#8220;Mi Camino&#8221; (+500). But we have a soft spot for <strong>Sir Elton<\/strong> <strong>John<\/strong> and his &#8220;Never Too Late&#8221; (from the eponymous film) is our sentimental choice to pull an upset (+800) here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best International Feature: <\/strong>Suspense! With one week to go, DraftKings has <em>I&#8217;m Still Here<\/em> and <em>Emilia Perez<\/em> deadlocked at -110. Our best guess (and it&#8217;s more than conjecture) is that the Academy does a repeat of previous years\u2014remember the <em>Green Book<\/em> vs. <em>Roma<\/em> throwdown?\u2014and gives <em>Emilia Perez<\/em> the little castrato in lieu of Best Picture. <strong>Should win:<\/strong> <em>I&#8217;m<\/em> <em>Still Here<\/em>. <strong>Will win:<\/strong> <em>Emilia Perez<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Animated Feature: <\/strong>Go figure. Why on earth is the Disneyfied, manipulative and utterly conventional <em>The Wild<\/em> <em>Robot<\/em> (-230) the odds-on favorite? Is it <strong>Dreamworks<\/strong>&#8216; turn to capture a trophy? We have to assume it is. At least the transcendent, wordless <em>Flow<\/em> (+160) is well-positioned for an upset. Alas, <em>Wallace &amp; Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl<\/em> (+1,400) is out of the running. <strong>Should win<\/strong>: <em>Flow<\/em> or <em>Wallace &amp; Gromit<\/em>. <strong>Will win:<\/strong> <em>Flow<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>So there you go<\/strong>. Depressing, ain&#8217;t it? This year&#8217;s Oscars could be the biggest sucktasm since Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay went to <em>CODA<\/em>, a Lifetime Original Movie if ever we saw one. Still, no film has coalesced with audiences or critics in the manner of <em>Oppenheimer<\/em> or <em>Everything Everywhere All At Once<\/em>. But if you can find <em>I&#8217;m Still Here<\/em>, see it by all means. Your time will be well-invested &#8230; the best investment tip we can give.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If you feared an Emilia Perez sweep after its staggering 13 Academy Award nominations, fret not. This year&#8217;s Oscars looks like it&#8217;s going to be one of those years where there&#8217;s a little something for everybody, unlike last year&#8217;s Oppenheimer juggernaut. Indeed, Emilia Perez has gone into a spectacular odds eclipse and will be hard-pressed [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":83928,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1728],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/877477"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/83928"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=877477"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/877477\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":877713,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/877477\/revisions\/877713"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=877477"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=877477"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=877477"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}