This post could also be titled, \u201cThe One That Got Away.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Treasure hunts require patience and lots of false starts. Discover an opportunity that gets shut down by the house? Join the club. But finding that elusive 102% game or major house miscalculation? JUMP! (My nod to Van Halen.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I didn\u2019t jump. I found it. Then missed it. That\u2019s the VIP lesson today. Find. Confirm. Jump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I\u2019d been studying non-linear recurrence theory and discovered the Birthday Paradox. This is a counterintuitive expression where, within a surprisingly small group of people, two can have the same birthday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most people assume, okay, two people, 365 days, half of 365 would be 183 people. Right? Wrong. The correct answer is 23. From 365.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The birthday paradox is Any X = ANY X.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
With each pair, the match percentage increases exponentially, because ANY 2 can match. It\u2019s not two people matching one number; it\u2019s any two numbers matching.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
With 23 people, its breakeven is a 50% chance of a match. With 30 people, it\u2019s 100%. Believe it or not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So what does this have to do with advantage play?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Double-zero roulette has 38 numbers. A new game, Double Action Roulette, was introduced at the M years ago. It had two wheels, one inside the other. You could bet on either wheel or both. You could also bet on when one number lands on both wheels. Max bet $5. Payout 1,200-to-one. Massive house edge (17%). And major house mistake.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They\u2019re thinking: two wheels, one number, 1,444-to-one \u2014 and not any two numbers matching with just 38 numbers. Jackpot. I\u2019m very excited, but am leaving that day. So I called a roulette AP associate, with whom I was working on another roulette project. \u201cGo to the M right now and hammer this! It\u2019s going to pay off 5 to 10 times a day!\u201d (In other words, $24K to $60K. A day.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Due to other time commitments, he declined. My plane took off. I looked down at the M, sighing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Back a few weeks later, I headed straight to the M. Double Wheel Roulette was nowhere to be found. Innocently, ahem, I asked the floor manager, \u201cWhere\u2019s Double Wheel?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cOh, we had to take that out. It was hitting at least five times a day.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Go ahead. Hit me<\/em>. Again. Harder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n My mistake? I never should\u2019ve left town. I should\u2019ve confirmed and jumped<\/em>. I\u2019d identified a major opportunity. Great! But I also missed a potential $24K a day. Not so great. Painful lesson learned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Still, that\u2019s the nature of the beast. Keep seeking. And when you find, confirm, then go ahead and \u2026 JUMP !<\/p>\n\n\n\n Note: Maybe I was spared. To overcome the massive edge, you\u2019d have to eliminate seven numbers through charting wheel bias. Aspects of live roulette that no longer exist allowed for wheel bias to overcome the house edge. Roulette manufacturers eliminated that possibility with shallower wheels, which are now much more random.<\/p>\n\n\n\n An updated lower-payout Double Wheel version exists at El Cortez. Don\u2019t play it. Also, don\u2019t play Quad Roulette at Palazzo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And remember, \u201cFriends don\u2019t let friends play triple-zero roulette.\u201d Ever.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" This post could also be titled, \u201cThe One That Got Away.\u201d Treasure hunts require patience and lots of false starts. Discover an opportunity that gets shut down by the house? Join the club. But finding that elusive 102% game or major house miscalculation? JUMP! (My nod to Van Halen.) I didn\u2019t jump. I found it. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":48,"featured_media":843497,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[643],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/bobby-vegas-friends-dont-let-friends-play-triple-zero-roulette.jpg?fit=980%2C588&ssl=1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/897023"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/48"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=897023"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/897023\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":897024,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/897023\/revisions\/897024"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/843497"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=897023"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=897023"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lasvegasadvisor.com\/shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=897023"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}