A preview of Ameristar Casinos‘ 4Q12 report draws an about-what-we-expected reaction from Joseph Greff of J.P. Morgan. Ameristar narrowly missed most of Wall Street‘s expectations, a result Greff partially attributes to “sluggish … regional gaming spend.” Hardest-hit by the competition was Ameristar’s Kansas City casino (left, -8%), which has been losing business to Penn National Gaming‘s racino at Kansas Speedway. Bright spots on the map were Black Hawk, Colorado, and Vicksburg, while dominant performer Ameristar St. Charles held steady — news that will be welcomed over at Pinnacle Entertainment, owner-to-be of it and all other Ameristar properties. That transaction is said to be speeding along and could close sometime this spring. Pinnacle’s concentration of ownership in the St. Louis area is expected to be problematic but it gives CEO Anthony Sanfilippo a perfect excuse to cut loose Lumiere Place, whose luster is now a distant memory.
On the subject of regional sluggishness, let’s look at Iowa and Illinois, which last month grossed $107 million and $123 million, respectively. That puts them -6% and -3% from January 2011. Normally, one expects the 
widest swings from the casinos with the smallest revenue bases — like the 9% drop at Penn’s Argosy Sioux City — but it was Iowa market leader Caesars Entertainment ($19.4) that got socked the hardest, down nearly 11%. Ameristar’s Council Bluffs casino tumbled 5.5% but was still good for $13 million, while Isle of Capri Casinos flotilla of riverboats (-5%) scraped together $18 million between them. Ameristar’s getting more bang for the buck on its 1,589 slot machines than Caesars is on its 2,539 one-armed bandits … something else that will make Pinnacle smile. Boyd Gaming‘s new twin daughters, Diamond Jo Worth and Diamond Jo Dubuque, however, joined the family amidst a revenue swoon, off 9% from last year. It sounds like Boyd and Caesars alike could use some new marketing strategies in the Hawkeye State.
The good news in Illinois is that the Chicago market has stabilized (or bottomed out, depending on your perspective), although Neil Bluhm‘s casino in Des Plaines (+7%) continues to nibble off bits and pieces of the 
competition, mainly MGM Resorts International‘s Grand Victoria riverboat (left), down 12.5%. With the exception of Harrah’s Joliet ($16.9 million, up 2%), Rivers Casino is doing double, even triple the business of its competitors, its $32.4 million gross dwarfing everyone else. The closest thing to good news downstate was that Penn’s Alton Belle ($5.3 million, -3%) suffered less than one might expect following Penn’s takeover of the former Harrah’s Maryland Heights, in nearby Missouri. Casino Queen had a rotten time of it, though (-11%), as did Boyd’s Par-A-Dice (-10%) and Harrah’s Metropolis (-13%). Even the state’s former star pupil, Casino Rock Island, has faded in appeal, posting its sixth revenue-negative month in the last 10. So the Land of Lincoln’s casino industry has caught a breather, overall, but with slot routes fast approaching, it’s highly unlikely to improve. If you own an Illinois casino and your last name isn’t “Bluhm,” my advice is: Sell while you still can.
Early returns from Ohio are unqualified good news if you’re Rock Caesars Gaming, whose Horseshoe Cleveland grossed $21 million, with average slot and table win per day of $227 and $2,108 — below average for the Caesars/Dan Gilbert property but easily the best results in the state. Hollywood Columbus‘ slot win could be described as anemic ($124 per slot per day), although it gave Horseshoe a run for its money at the tables ($2,003/day). H’wood Columbus will attempt to improve its numbers by removing 500 slots and beefing up its poker-table inventory. Hollywood Toledo‘s slot win was respectable ($175/day) but well below average for the Penn property. Detroit-based casino executives can breathe a sigh of relief: The threat from the Buckeye State turns out to have been greatly exaggerated.
Update: Scioto Downs grossed $10.2 million, essentially maintaining its market share vis-a-vis Hollywood Columbus.
