SkyVue kaput?; Wowing them in Massachusetts

That’s the unavoidable conclusion, despite the increasingly comical protestations of local developer Howard Bulloch‘s sidekicks. Caesars Entertainment‘s rival Ferris wheel may be in a terrible location, it may be progressing slowly but — but — it is progressing. SkyVue has ground to a standstill. “We anticipate construction to resume in the next couple of months,” said Bulloch associate David Gaffin. I’ve heard that one before. Funny how the “next couple of months” would coincide with the upcoming expiration of Bulloch’s construction permit. He and Gaffin are obviously trying to jawbone their way to a permit extension, absent any tangible construction activity. From the sound of things, SkyVue has just enough money to stay current on its bills but little more.

“Linq’s strong financial backing and growing list of tenants may have scared away SkyVue investors, who might now question whether two observation wheels is one too many,” reports the Las Vegas Sun. Indeed, can you think of any city that has the tourism to support two mammoth Ferris wheels, especially premium-priced ones? County Commissioner Mary Beth Scow says of SkyFail, er, Skyvue, “We want to see it finished.” Oh, I don’t know … its twin pillars would make a handsome civic monument to the construction follies of the past decade which pushed Las Vegas almost to the brink.

Speaking of … professional optimists, the Mashpee Wampanoags must have a few on their payroll. The tribe’s “don’t worry, be happy” sales pitch to Taunton is jarringly at odds with reality. The Carcieri v. Salazar Supreme Court ruling still bars the tribe’s path and the new compact with Gov. Deval Patrick (D, right) is moving forward at a caterpillar-like creep. It may languish on Beacon Hill until early 2014. “This compact has no sense of urgency. It’s like a car without an engine without land in trust,” said Carcieri skeptic Rep. Robert Koczera (D). Fortunately for the Mashpee Wamps, the Massachusetts Gaming Commission has three other license approvals that it can queue up while the southeastern-region muddle crawls toward clarity.

Hopping the train before it leaves the station, Springfield‘s New North Citizens Council is giving its backing to MGM Resorts International‘s casino proposal, which continues to gather momentum … after having endorsed Penn National Gaming five months earlier. Between Penn’s withdrawal and MGM’s strong lobbying campaign, the prospects for the Citizens Council probably boiled down to getting on board vs. getting run over. Still keeping its powder dry is the minority-oriented Political Action Council of Greater Springfield. It’s endorsed no one, but it would be a surprise if MGM’s diversity credentials didn’t sway the council in the project’s favor.

A non-partisan, but nonetheless discouraging voice hails from the Realtor Association of Pioneer Valley. It’s been crunching numbersand projects that whether Palmer, Springfield or West Springfield gets the western-region casino, homeowners will be the losers, the value of their domiciles falling 1%-2%. That’s not as bad as if a Wal-Mart or a sports stadium were plunked down in one’s area, although the association is also projecting 250 additional bankruptcies and 125 more foreclosures per years. MGM argues that it’s a special case, thanks to the high-end condos that will be built into its Springfield project. The question is also raised whether Massachusetts casinos will be able to draw business off Foxwoods Resort Casino and Mohegan Sun’s home base in Connecticut? And, if so, why are those two trying to spend an aggregate $2 billion to get into the Bay State?

Taking the realtors’ study at face value, would you pull the voting lever in MGM’s favor or not? That casino has to go somewhere and S&G thinks Springfield would be better if it were in the running to get it than not.

The “wow” factor. That’s the non-quantifiable metric that the MGC will be looking for, according to Chairman Stephen Crosby.  Going region by region, only Hard Rock International out west has underperformed rival projects in the design phase. All three Boston-area proposals have visual appeal, while the southeastern region is remarkably wow-less so far.

Potential economic impact is another leading criterion, particularly job creation, as is geographic diversity — which may doom the centrally located “eastern” Foxwoods project in Milford. (Nobody matches Steve Wynn for amenities, so score a point for Everett.) The killer categories, though, are “good character, honesty, integrity and financial suitability.” If you combine its debt load with the first three criteria, MGM might go for 0-for-4, presuming that its Stanley Ho (above) imbroglio is still held against it.

Caesars Entertainment near-inevitable bankruptcy ought to give regulators’ pause, but it’s only carrying a smallish portion (20%) of Suffolk Downs‘ burden. Foxwoods won a small victory in the financial-viability category when it was able to write down its debt to $1.7 billion and pushed out maturies, some as much as 23 years. Since the casino’s new borrowing capacity is only $25 million, it’s still going to be tied to Genting Group‘s big-buck apron strings if it hopes to build in Massachusetts. If Milford weren’t so close to Ledyard, I’d say ‘go for it.’ But to spend a billion dollars you don’t have on a casino in such proximity … ? It’s your funeral, Woody.