Given its mix of climate, tourism and geographic isolation from other U.S. casinos, Florida has always seemed a natural for casino expansion. Yet it remains — unless you’re the Seminole Tribe — a stubbornly disappointing market. That perception is unlikely to change with the release of a report by Spectrum Gaming. Wrongly, I had predicted a roseate forecast from Spectrum, which had missed the boat on Ohio grosses.
Au contraire! Spectrum’s outlook on the Sunshine State is anything but sunny. We’ll have to wait a while for the final result. Lawmakers found the document so confusing they sent it back to Spectrum. The bottom line, however, is the same as it has been for many years in Florida: Casino expansion will only have a moderate economic impact, at best — especially the more you spread it across the state.
Different papers spun the story in different ways. Building a pair of Vegas-style resort casinos in Miami-Dade and Broward counties (one of a dozen outcomes considered) would be the most high-impact scenario, providing a $1 billion economic boost and over 7,600 jobs, according to Spectrum — for instance, the super casino proposed by Genting Group, above. Miami “could immediately become a major international competitor for the ultra-high-end traveler who includes casino gambling as part of his/her entertainment experience. In this regard, Florida could compete with Las Vegas, Macau and other world-class casino markets for the highest-stakes players.”
However, the economic impact is attenuated the more casinos that are added. A mind-boggling 33 spread across the state would increase the total impact to $2.6 billion. The probable loss of Seminole taxes also dampens the effect, although that’s one scenario Spectrum failed to consider. “The state of gaming has kind of plateaued in places where it exists and it exists in those places because the people wanted it,” said one consultant. Spectrum predicts “minor” economic impact from the expansion of gambling offerings at parimutuels. Bottom line: It’s going to take Something Very Big and very splashy to move the needle in Florida.
Florida is scared of losing revenue from Seminoles. IMO, racinos will get tables, Seminoles will get full tables and pay state more to keep exclusivity in Tampa, Hollywood and Coconut Creek. In the meantime, Baha Mar opening in Bahamas will be focal point for high rollers from Europe and South America, as well as from eastern U.S. states.