Which would you rather have: More visitors three years straight or more spending per capita? That’s the choice Las Vegas has to make as it defines its recovery. On the bright side, ADRs are catching up with supply, with which we were glutted at the worst possible time. I’m not sure I buy the proposition that more players from China will come to Vegas because of a lack of new attractions in Macao until 2016: Wall Street thinks that everyone is driven, in Pavlovian fashion, by “the next wave of megaresorts” but Chinese gamblers don’t think that way and, during the Great Recession, neither did Americans. Alternate destination resorts are also closer at hand.
We’re becoming more of a tourist destination that has gambling, not the Vatican City of baccarat anymore. And that’s fine. We can live on that. We’ll have to, if “young people have little inclination to play slots,” as Deutsche Bank opines.
New Hampshire kicked over the traces last year when Gov. Maggie 
Hassan (D, right) tried to fit it for casino gambling. This year will bring another attempt, hopefully more successful. No fewer than four bills are already in the hopper. It’s so complicated a scenario that the best thing I can do is refer you to this infographic. So we’ve got everything from one private casino to six state-owned up for debate. The study group bill and Lou D’Allesandro bill want big money up front, but are the most “george” on the back end. The Steve Vaillancourt and bipartisan Sullivan/Sapareto bills aren’t so cost-intensive in the approval stage but enable relatively bare-bones gambling and at punitive tax rates. (Vaillancourt’s bill scoops up most of the lucre for the state and leaves a relative handful of dollars for localities.)
Major operators are ignoring New Hampshire so far, leaving the field to Cannery Casino Resorts parent Millennium Gaming. Opposition, however, is already forming, particularly among the state’s $14 million/year charitable-gaming industry. Hassan is throwing her support behind a one-casino solution, particularly since that proposal is the one with the most articulated regulatory framework. It would be easy to mistake this flurry of activity for progress, but the reality of casinos in Massachusetts appears to have finally made legislators wake up and smell the coffee.
In Iowa, Brookfield Asset Management and Warner Gaming have managed to craft a sliding scale, revenue-sharing agreement with Sioux City which keeps taxes to a modest level, while assuring a reliable cash stream for the metropolis. If the Hard Rock-branded casino makes $75 million or less, it pays 2%. Taxes max out at 6% on revenues between $90 million-$110 million, in a win-win for casino and city. Of course, Penn National Gaming — having lost its license — still lurks in the shadows, hoping to upset this nice, little applecart and play spoiler (a Penn specialty). Speaking of Penn …
Candid conversation about Hollywood Casino Columbus‘ early struggles is to be had with CEO Ameet Patel.
