Perhaps it was with dry irony that the Las Vegas Review-Journal's latest Station Casinos story's subhead read, "Company blames economy, poached customers." And by whom might those customers have been poached? By Station Casinos itself! The company's imperial overreach has reduced it to gnawing on its own femur, as each new Station property cannibalizes business from somewhere else in the Fertitta empire.
Bad as the 2008 financials were, 2009 is going to be that much worse once the encroachment of M Resort begins to be felt. Last year, Station's casino revenues fell by 11% and ADRs were down comparably. A 14% slippage in cash flow from 2007 meant that a deal valued at a rose-colored 9.7X EBIDTA is now effectively over 11X cash flow. Even had the Fertitta Brothers not insisted upon carting home a half-billion dollars as part of the buyout, its valuation would still have been quite over-optimistic.
(Even in a boom year, Station's proposal to dilute Aliante Station's revenues with a nearby "Losee Station" would be inexplicable. Given the company's current financial performance, it's an idea quite a few fries short of a Happy Meal.)
Elsewhere in the casinosphere, the closest thing to good news was Planet Hollywood's disclosure that it shaved 40% off of last year's losses, thanks to a nearly 8% revenue increase. More alarmingly, the Las Vegas Hilton — seemingly the one casino-hotel Colony Capital couldn't ruin — has swung from a profit to a loss.
It's a business miracle! Losses at soon-to-be-cleft Herbst Gaming widened by 60%. Most of that was driven by a -33% downward spiral in slot-route revenues. By contrast, the ouster of sundry Herbsts in favor of CEO Ferenc Szony appears to have given the company's 15 casinos a boost because, as dowdy as some of those places are, their revenue actually grew 1% last year.
For most companies that might be unremarkable; for Herbst it's a miracle. It also puts paid to the Herbsts' face-saving insinuation that, by keeping the slot routes and parting with the casinos, the family was hanging onto the real goodies. I can't even remember the last time I went into a Terrible's convenience store and saw somebody playing the slots.
Humpty Dumpty had a great fall. The Nevada state budget is a two-legged stool, balanced upon gaming and sales taxes. That stool is getting wobblier by the day. Unfortunately, if the Lege has any solutions, it's keeping them to itself.
