Sands IPO: bad timing?

If Steve Wynn‘s stock float for his Macao properties hit the Hong Kong bourse at the optimal moment, the tortoise-like progress of Las Vegas Sands‘ offering comes at a price. Specifically, its $1.34 opening price is at the absolute bottom end of Sands’ projected range. J.P. Morgan analysts critiqued the IPO launch thusly: “We think the lower end of the range is more a function of timing than anything else as we believe institutional investors were smaller in size than normal given the quickly approaching year end (recall the stock doesn’t begin trading until 11/30/09). That being said, we believe some upside was left on the table.” (In an earlier report, they sounded skeptical of Sands’ ability to open Marina Bay Sands before April 2010. That project just falls farther and farther behind schedule. Cash flow projections suggest a 5.5% ROI in 2010 and 13% in 2011.)

Even at a somewhat debased price, Sheldon Adelson‘s Hong Kong stock offering should raise $2.64 billion. The two unfinished Cotai Strip™ sites are expected to consume $1.84 billion of that. Back home, Adelson only has $16 million in his restricted cash balance that isn’t already pledged against Macao and Singapore. So it looks like completion of Sands Bethlehem isn’t going to happen anytime soon. Sorry, Pennsylvania.

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