In the current era of managed expectations of all things related to Macao, the 4Q15 report from Wynn Resorts fell into the “better than anticipated” category, with earnings down ‘only’ 17% (superior to Wall 
Street consensus) and profits just over $1/share (ditto). Those results — and some sanguine commentary by CEO Steve Wynn — prompted a runup in the stock as well as that over similarly Macao-centric Las Vegas Sands. Compared to Las Vegas ($127 million), return on investment in Macao ($160 million) is relatively anemic, reflective of a 27% decline in Macanese casino win. “Still, that was the smallest quarterly decline of 2015, leaving some analysts to suggest the market may be bottoming out,” reported Bloomberg.
As for the earnings call, Deutsche Bank‘s Carlo Santarelli reports that “commentary was guarded, but certainly more constructive than the 3Q15 session,” when Wynn went thermonuclear on Beijing and its micromanagement of the Macanese economy. Wynn, Santarelli continued, “believes Macau is settling in, with a strong January [and] solid [Chinese New Year] mass trends in February to date. Mr. Wynn, as evidenced by his stock purchases, remains long term bullish on China/Macau, and a believer in the Company and the product it delivers.” As well he should be. Wynn said January in Macao was the best month “in a long time” and Las Vegas business was on “a terrific and roaring start.”
Wynn Palace has been postponed until June but, even at that, Santarelli is “skeptical” of an on-time opening. JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff, speaking of the Macao market in general, echoed 
Wynn’s sentiments, predicting lower VIP play but a stronger mass-market performance, leading to shallower year/year declines. (In truth, it would difficult to have a worse year than 2015, a fact Greff noted.) Still, VIP play is not to be discounted, with Wynn Macau generating daily win of $18,422 per high-end table. Studio City, by comparison, is producing a weak $5,200 table/day. In view of the recent controversy over table allotments, one might make so bold as to suggest it’s not the number of the tables granted by the quality of player that counts, although Steve Wynn might give you an argument on that. He expects the number of junket operators affiliated with his Chinese casinos to halved, to four, but isn’t worried, given the number of affluent punters on the Mainland.
* There’s daylight at the end of the tunnel for Florida‘s gaming compact with the Seminole Tribe. The state House Regulatory Affairs Committee gave the compact its blessing, although a surprise amendment by state Sen. Joe Negron temporarily stymied the compact in the Senate Regulated Industries Committee.
* Pennsylvania celebrated a record year of table game revenue, led by a 13% increase at Sands Bethlehem, which continues to play a hot hand.
* Despite investments in Texas and an active interest in Georgia, there’s an air of pessimism at Penn National Gaming that gambling is coming to either state.
* An apparent history of lax anti-money laundering policies at the Sparks Nugget has cost former Sparks exec Michonne Ascuaga her seat on the Nevada Gaming Commission. The industry is on red alert about FinCen‘s investigations of lax AML practices and Ascuaga is the latest sacrifice to the AML gods.
