National Harbor rules; #VegasAmnesia anyone?

Last week I was saying that anyone who thinks the Washington, D.C.-Baltimore corridor can absorb another casino doesn’t have their head screwed on right. Well, the latest numbers are in and S&G feels more validated than ever. Maryland Live ($46 million) fell 14%, while Horseshoe Baltimore ($19.5 million) plunged 26.5%. Even MGM National Harbor ($52 million) came up incrementally short of some Wall Street projections. Obviously, Cordish Gaming is better positioned to absorb this pummeling than Caesars Entertainment is. Another October like last month and you’d probably see job cuts and other things we’d like not to talk about. Hollywood Perryville ($6 million) was flat and little Ocean Downs ($5 million) actually gained 7%, despite being in the off-season. Golden Entertainment experienced its first setback at Rocky Gap Casino, down 1.5% to $4.5 million.

Revenue at National Harbor is shifting towards slots and away from a 50/50 tables/slots mix. This will not please management. The higher the slot revenue, the heavier the tax bill will be, given Maryland’s usurious impost on slot revenues, which was why MGM was trying to cultivate table play. On the brighter side, National Harbor’s share of Maryland play continues to grow, now standing at 39% and gross gaming revenue is just shy of $1.7 million a day. Out in West Virginia, gaming revenues were down 3%, worse still at Hollywood Casino at Charles Town Races (whew!), where revenue fell 7%.

* Despite what analysts call “an unfavorable calendar,” Illinois casinos had a moral victory last month, up 1.5%. Strong numbers in the northern tier of the Land of Obama made up for some rather dire ones to the south. At the very list, Boyd Gaming‘s Par-A-Dice seems to have finally bottomed out in its U-boat combat with slot routes, being flat with last year at $6.5 million. Independent Casino Rock Island fell 9% ($5.5 million) and Harrah’s Metropolis was flat at $6.5 million. Argosy Belle ($4 million) actually had a good month, up 2.5% but Casino Queen tumbled 12% to $8 million.

Up north, Hollywood Aurora ($10 million) experienced a 12.5% growth spurt, Nobody was revenue-negative, even by a tenth of a percent. Harrah’s Joliet ($15 million) was flat and Empress Joliet ($9.5 million) edged up 1%. Grand Victoria ($13 million) was up 3% and revenue giant Rivers Casino ($36 million) gained 5%, all of which should come as good news in a market where slot routes nip at the ankles of casinos like so many mosquitos.

* Pinnacle Entertainment exceeded The Street’s expectations with a $178 million in third-quarter cash flow. “The impact of Hurricane Harvey on its Lake Charles property was not as severe on profitability versus what we modeled and further upside was driven by properties in Baton Rouge, Black Hawk, and Meadows,” wrote JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff. “Overall results, in our view, reflect continued solid operating focus and more efficient marketing spend/cost control.” No doubt management will add some color on its conference call but the early results look mighty good, all things considered.

* Some people have already had too much of #VegasStrong. “Why do we come? We come to have fun, to relax,  and forget the troubles of the world. We don’t come to be reminded of horrible disasters,” runs the lotus-eating argument. Yes, let’s all stick our heads in the sand, and pretend that bump-stocks are still legal and the casino industry has been exposed as sorrily unprepared for such a catastrophe (except you, Steve).