Lack of thrift in the executive corridors is hurting Caesars Entertainment‘s stock price. JP Morgan analyst Daniel Politzer
just ratcheted his price target down to $12, citing “worse than expected weather/GGR results at CZR’s regional properties and higher than previously modeled corporate expenses.” His cash-flow estimate for the regional casinos was lowered from $245 million to $232 million, although Las Vegas Strip projections remain level. Factored into the changes was $15 million worth of “unfavorable weather impact.” The newly feverish competition in Atlantic City is a “$20m headwind,” an impact doubled by weather issues and competition in other markets.
Flood-related closures of Harrah’s Metropolis (40 days and 40 nights—should we call it Noah’s Ark?) and Harrah’s Council Bluffs were the worst of the weather-related impacts. “We note our (potentially conservative) estimates do not assume any improvements in marketing
spend/efficiencies as we believe CZR has been active tapping its regional database for shoulder periods in LV,” Politzer wrote, adding that increased corporate expenses could be chalked up to “higher than previously modeled labor costs, wage increases for non-unionized corporate employees [and] more security in Las Vegas.” The latter market was characterized as “stable,” with conventions tracking up 10%, tourism up 2% but gambling down 3% and baccarat off by a whopping 22%.
Finally, it’s official that Anthony Rodio is the new CEO and will be beginning a 30-transitional period. Here’s hoping the company isn’t sold out from under him before his transition is complete or his honeymoon could be the shortest on record.
* As for Caesars suitor Eldorado Resorts, Politzer kept his price target at $60/share despite lower revenue projections. “Our estimates reflect worse than expected weather impacting properties in the
Central and West segments,” he wrote, “with GGR results in the South segment also coming in lower than we previously modeled.” Despite “acceleration” in the synergies of the Tropicana Entertainment and Grand Victoria takeovers “the inclement weather throughout the Midwest/West will be an obstacle for ERI in the 1Q.” Politzer reduced his revenue projection from $659.5 million to $640 million. That’ll still buy a lot of those El Cheapo Caesars shares. Among the regions negatively affected were Eldorado strongholds in Colorado and Reno, where it snowed all but four days in February.
Still, Politzer likes Eldorado for five reasons: 1) operational and marketing efficiencies in its “legacy” portfolio; 2) TropEnt cost-savings; 3) cash flow streams from its joint venture at Pompano Park and its relationship with William Hill; 5) “a healthy regional gaming consumer.” Here’s to that.
* After years of waffling—mostly Steve Wynn‘s fault—Wynn Resorts has quietly entered the Internet gaming fray in the United States. The
news was smuggled out in a one-paragraph Scientific Games press release. Using New Jersey as its base of operations, Wynn will launch i-gaming and sports-betting applications, eventually fanning out to other states. Scientific will provide “a sports betting and iGaming system; a managed sports trading service and Scientific Games’ … aggregation system that is home to more than 2,000 digital games.” Why roll this out on tippy-toes? Fear that Sheldon Adelson might disapprove?
* Rather surprisingly, Las Vegas is rated the 10th-best place to celebrate Easter, according to WalletHub. The metrics contributing to the high rank included brunch restaurants per capita (#1), candy stores per capita (#3), flower shops per capita (#6), Easter weather forecast (#7) and Easter-egg hunts per capita (#11). That last number is a little perplexing, in that Las Vegas only ranks 51st in share of children aged nine or younger. I guess Sin City isn’t a place to raise kids.
