Grumpy old Dems; A Titan-ic sports book win

Prude of the Month has to go to Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D), who certainly looks like a cranky old battle-axe. She vetoed a bill that would have legalized sports betting in her state, sniffing, “the majority of Maine people are [not] ready to legalize, support, endorse and promote betting on competitive athletic events.” Says who? Mills’ snit fit is great news for neighboring New Hampshire, where Gov. Chris Sununu (R) will be only too happy to take spillover action, as will business partner DraftKings. Although there’s already a considerable body of economic evidence available (New Jersey, anyone?), Mills grumbled that “Before Maine joins the frenzy of states hungry to attract this market, I believe we need to examine the issue more clearly; better understand the evolving experiences of other states; and thoughtfully determine the best approach for Maine,” the best approach apparently being to do nothing.

Sununu thought the Granite State would be getting phat off refugee bettors from Massachusetts. Mills just handed him a helluva bonus. In the meantime, solons in casino-allergic Vermont (where Sen. Bernie Sanders [I] uses “casino” like most of us use the F-word) have actually begun to consider sports-betting legislation. Take it from us: That’s a seismic political event that they would even talk about it.

Elsewhere, in sensible states, sports books cleaned up on the Tennessee Titans‘ storybook upset of the hugely favored (10 points) Baltimore Ravens. Bettors laid action on the Ravens “as if Baltimore was the lock of the century,” with one MGM Grand punter laying $420,000 on the Ravens. He’s not so flush today. The superlatives rolled in from coast to coast. CG Technology‘s Tony DiTommaso said of the double-digit upset, “It’s monster. Kills every parlay, teaser and moneyline parlay.” Added Westgate Las VegasJohn Murray, this was “biggest single game win of the NFL season to date.” PointsBet recorded a six-digit swing on its balance sheet, as Ravens bettors lost their shirts, like the one who plunked down 84 grand at South Point. Even with some Titans fans betting large (and winning larger), sports books still stood to profit handsomely.

No word yet on the takings from the Green Bay Packers‘ underwhelming victory over (survival of?) the Seattle Seahawks. This match, however, played to form with Green Bay covering the spread. But the Kansas City Chiefs‘ exciting comeback win over the Houston Texansblew out the ‘over,’ promising 51 points and delivering a mind-boggling 82. Food for Las Vegas Raiders thought: Houston scored 31 points and lost, and two words: Patrick Mahomes. Time to man up, Malosos. Oh, and the San Francisco 49ers had no trouble at all figuring out the Minnesota Vikings. What gives, New Orleans Saints?

* Are Wall Street analysts looking into their crystal balls for Macao and seeing what they want to see? Global Gaming Business predicts that such factors as “slowing economic growth in China, which supplies the vast majority of the territory’s gamblers; geopolitical tensions heightened by the U.S.-China trade war; months of political unrest in neighboring Hong Kong; a central government crackdown on cross-border gambling, which crimped business for the junkets that finance high rollers; and competition posed by the growing availability of high-level resort-scale gaming elsewhere in the region” are “firmly in the rearview mirror.”

Except for an easing of the trade war, we haven’t seen evidence to support any of those other contentions, especially with regard to troubled Hong Kong, where President Xi Jinping‘s government continues to refuse to make concessions. Overseas resorts aren’t going away (quite the contrary) and the Beijing government has issued no warm fuzzies toward junketeers. Macao’s casino economy should be better this year than last, on that everyone is agreed. How much better remains to be seen. Growth will probably be modest, on an easy comparison. Still, there’s at least one positive augury for which we can hope. Wrote Nomura Instinet analyst Harry Curtis, “A black swan positive would be initial indications from Macau’s new government on reasonable steps license holders need take to retain their concessions.” We’re looking forward to that and a little concession certainty would go a long way toward encouraging further investment.

* Academy Award nominations are out, which means that we can turn it over to the real experts: the oddsmakers. Much to our surprise, Holocaust drama A Hidden Life got blanked, although a Holocaust comedy (Jojo Rabbit) earned several nods, including one for Scarlett Johansson. Parasite made the expected strong showing but hopes for The Irishman seem dim if onetime favorite Robert DeNiro was edged out for Best Actor consideration. It’s that danged Netflix curse, which is keeping at least four award-caliber movies out of theaters. As my wife said, “That’s a rare case of principle trumping capitalism. A stupid principle: Being crybabies.”

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